Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Do models tend to have trouble with energy coming north out of mexico, like they do with energy dropping out of canada? They can. I think that was part of the reason why the early February event (post Groundhog) trended way north in the final day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 They can. I think that was part of the reason why the early February event (post Groundhog) trended way north in the final day or so. Yea I think the big thing is the northern wave behind the first initial one that goes through. If the northern wave is stronger and speeds up it will kick this thing east. Definitely a touchy situation. Tougher forecast than I thought it was going to be a few days ago. Something always comes into play with so many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 im not excited about this one even though the nam, gfs, and canadian want it to go thru WV. Now that i think about it, JB said in his post over the weekend, I think it was, that there was nothing to stop this one from going nw and i have to agree. UKie solution looks fairly reasonable with a track right over ohio. Only way it goes se is if it's much weaker, but then it will probably be warmer as well since it wont pull in cold air. lose-lose down this way. Oh well, it's march so the heartbreak is more like a little heartburn. Hell I didn't even see this thing on the radar screen until this morning...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 whats the deal with Plymouth State ECMWF ......its been down for a few days. for me. is there something i'm missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 im not excited about this one even though the nam, gfs, and canadian want it to go thru WV. Now that i think about it, JB said in his post over the weekend, I think it was, that there was nothing to stop this one from going nw and i have to agree. UKie solution looks fairly reasonable with a track right over ohio. Only way it goes se is if it's much weaker, but then it will probably be warmer as well since it wont pull in cold air. lose-lose down this way. Oh well, it's march so the heartbreak is more like a little heartburn. Hell I didn't even see this thing on the radar screen until this morning...lol that's what you will miss with JB. Even if the EURO today takes it through WV he would post it's still going northwest right up until the time it went through WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 EURO has a 996 low in SE Ind. 0z EURO had a 992 low in pretty much the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Towel tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro looks a hair south of the 00z run. Just suck me in even more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Towel tossed CR-RFD-MKE track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ORD only .25" liquid this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Still a hit: DTW: 0.59 DET: 0.56 PTK: 0.35 BTL: 0.26 TOL: 0.98 ORD: 0.25 LAF: 1.26 (mostly rain, some snow at the end) YYZ: 0.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro looks a hair south of the 00z run. Just suck me in even more... Looks like the upper levels cooled again for us, but the 2m temps are less than desirable verbatim. Man we need it a little colder and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Track on the EURO looks like a slightly northward adjusted GGEM track. At least that's what I gather from the freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Heaviest snow on the 12z Euro looks to be roughly along/north of a BMI-TOL line. Fairly narrow swath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Damn, this is getting really close to a surprise wet snow event, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 LAF: 1.26 (mostly rain, some snow at the end) That would be the ultimate punch to the gut...though even with a near perfect track for LAF, it remains a possibility due to the lack of true cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 EURO has a 996 low in SE Ind. 0z EURO had a 992 low in pretty much the same area. Clearly its more SE WARD or drier not real sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like the upper levels cooled again for us, but the 2m temps are less than desirable verbatim. Man we need it a little colder and then... Bigger problem is the warmth upstairs. If it's cold enough there, I'm not gonna worry too much about the 2m temps with the bulk of this coming after dark and heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Heaviest snow on the 12z Euro looks to be roughly along/north of a BMI-TOL line. Fairly narrow swath though. Ya IKK ends up with .50" but sfc temps are a tad above freezing at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 looks like John dee is all aboard the NW train. I think hes usually accurate but Im not understanding this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Bigger problem is the warmth upstairs. If it's cold enough there, I'm not gonna worry too much about the 2m temps with the bulk of this coming after dark and heavy rates. True. I'd take my chances with 33-34º at the surface if the upper layers say snow. Alas, the Euro still not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Heaviest snow on the 12z Euro looks to be roughly along/north of a BMI-TOL line. Fairly narrow swath though. Actually south of that. A line from Defiance/FDY/Lorain changes to a very heavy snow. FDY gets over 1' of heavy wet snow if taken verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 AFD's/HPC going to be interesting this afternoon. I inferred from the last couple of rounds of discos that they were expecting the SE model camp to capitulate pretty quickly, but that's not been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 DVN or PIA anyone? Thanks in advance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ya IKK ends up with .50" but sfc temps are a tad above freezing at the beginning. I'm 99% sure usedtobe (Wes Junker of HPC fame), has said before that the Euro has a bit of a warm bias with 2m temps, though pretty small in the grand scheme (like 1 degree). Regardless, it seems as if the snow portion of this storm will be in a relatively thin zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Actually south of that. A line from Defiance/FDY/Lorain changes to a very heavy snow. FDY gets over 1' of heavy wet snow if taken verbatim Maybe a little south...I couldn't think of any good cities in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ...I couldn't think of any good cities in OH. There you go fanning the flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Maybe a little south...I couldn't think of any good cities in OH. Yeah... DFI, FDY, TOL are the only airports around here... and I'm literally 20 miles or so from each station... so borderline situations get tough. Esepcially when FDY had 1.54" or so and TOL got about .98". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 DFI, FWA, Rensselaer, IKK all get hit good on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 LOLGAPS like the EURO is weaker and a hair SE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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