Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, 12z GGEM is a fair bit north of the 0z run. 0z @ 12z Fri: 1000 over W VA 12z @ 12z Fri: 998 over N WV once the euro caves at 12z , it will be gameover, passing cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 looks like John dee is all aboard the NW train. He went nuts NW with the last storm with less than stellar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 looks like John dee is all aboard the NW train. These maps are definitely going with the NW side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 once the euro caves at 12z , it will be gameover, passing cirrus With the Ukie standing pat and the GGEM going north, it's not predestined that the EURO comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 true this one on sunday he was across northern wiscosin and ended up more central wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With the Ukie standing pat and the GGEM going north, it's not predestined that the EURO comes south. does the GEm actually bring qpf to ontario? it sounds quite far S, usually PA at minimum is required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, 12z GGEM is a fair bit north of the 0z run. 0z @ 12z Fri: 1000 over W VA 12z @ 12z Fri: 998 over N WV Yesterday's 12z GGEM has a 1002 over W NC so there's definitely a trend there. 2 mb deeper and 100 miles north/run. Extrapolating....congrats MQT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 our storm off the coast of southern CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 does the GEm actually bring qpf to ontario? it sounds quite far S, usually PA at minimum is required. Brushes Lk Erie/Lk Ontario but the heavy stuff is just on the other side of the border. Niagara does ok. Very tight gradient but at least it's not a complete whiff like the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z NAM is lol-tastic, dropping 3-6" here. GFS would essentially be a miss, 12z GGEM looks like mainly rain despite a good track. And then of course the 0z Euro. Fun stuff. No doubt on the 12z NAM.. Tosses out a 8-10" here.. Honestly, trying to get my son up to speed so he can go get his license so we've been driving nearly every day. So, I would like a pass on this snow, please. Plus his school district is two days over on snow days for this year, we can't have any more or his graduation date would be in Jeopardy. I hate having to wish way snow at this point, but there is always next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 They need to shut down the GFS for a while and just run the NAM out to 48 hours. At least until this pattern changes. I realize that some leftover confluence from the northern stream wave will keep this system from coming too far north. But seriously, how many times have we seen these systems track close to the farthest nw solution or even farther northwest in this kind of a long wave pattern? Safe to say most of the time. I actually like where I sit right now, which can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Odd situation however the euro ensembles are still fully on board. By that i mean all 51 members were on board. Well as of the 00z run. Would be one of the bigger busts i have seen in a while with both the euro and it's ensembles inside this range. The difference seems to be is the GFS/NAM have a stronger front runner tracking across S.Canada just north of the lakes ahead of this system. That ends up forcing this system farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 wow, the nam, gem, gfs now all give me 2-4 inches of wet snow. talk about a nice shift south, even the nam has come south a lot. lets see how this trends..maybe colder and deeper so it can get a more precip in the cold part of the system. Hoosier said if this is south like yesterdays GFS he gives all of us 10 bucks right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Brushes Lk Erie/Lk Ontario but the heavy stuff is just on the other side of the border. Niagara does ok. Very tight gradient but at least it's not a complete whiff like the last several runs. yeah i just saw that now.....you are right, thats a big shift wrt to the axis and orientation of the precip, as well as the storm taking more of a NE turn between 72-84. defintely some significant changes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 They need to shut down the GFS for a while and just run the NAM out to 48 hours. At least until this pattern changes. I realize that some leftover confluence from the northern stream wave will keep this system from coming too far north. But seriously, how many times have we seen these systems track close to the farthest nw solution or even farther northwest in this kind of a long wave pattern? Safe to say most of the time. I actually like where I sit right now, which can't be good. One of those last minute nw trenders? As mentioned in last post it has been a long time since i have seen both the euro and it's ensembles bust like this especially at this range. Actuallly would be one of this biggest bust i can ever recall if they do. Why i find it hard to buy into what the GFS/NAM are trying to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 They need to shut down the GFS for a while and just run the NAM out to 48 hours. At least until this pattern changes. I realize that some leftover confluence from the northern stream wave will keep this system from coming too far north. But seriously, how many times have we seen these systems track close to the farthest nw solution or even farther northwest in this kind of a long wave pattern? Safe to say most of the time. I actually like where I sit right now, which can't be good. i tell you what, you are so right.......in some ways, i would be absolutely stunned if this ends up SE looking at the pattern, i mentioned it a couple days ago that their is an open invite N and W.....but it just seems storms do whatever they can to avoid ontario for the past 2 years. so with that longterm persistence effect in mind, i wouldnt be stunned at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ukmet is wrapped up and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I usually watch henry margursity's videos because usually for some reason he is more accurate during them than his maps are. However this morning I think he has lost his mind (more than usual). Shows the GFS like he always does. He goes on to say that the Euro is on it's own with this storm. For some reason he never favors the euro. Here comes the best part. He says when the gfs jma and dgex are more in line with each other, it's best go with them over the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 No doubt on the 12z NAM.. Tosses out a 8-10" here.. Honestly, trying to get my son up to speed so he can go get his license so we've been driving nearly every day. So, I would like a pass on this snow, please. Plus his school district is two days over on snow days for this year, we can't have any more or his graduation date would be in Jeopardy. I hate having to wish way snow at this point, but there is always next winter. No worries about snow with this one IMO. Even if the track works out, it looks like the "cold enough part" will not be there for us. I think a safe call at this point is primarily rain with the potential for a little backside snow...of course we know how that usually works out. On to our next disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This new NAM solution has some issues, that post from Tom Skilling's FB is pretty much the main issue I am seeing. Being that the surface isn't matching the upper levels. Plus even with the last event the NAM threw out some screwball guidance up until the event occurred, its almost getting to the point of where I am just not going to look at that model. Unless the Euro blinks any, full speed ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is the most anticipated EURO run that I can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 855 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 26 2011 - 12Z TUE MAR 01 2011 DURING THE DAY 3/4 PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 3...FRIDAY. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DEEPER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS DEEPER SOLUTION ALSO BRINGS THE SURFACE WAVE FARTHER TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. THE WEAKER LOW PRESENTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS WILL BE DISMISSED AS NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE DEEPER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...00Z ECMWF WAS HEAVILY USED FOR DAYS 3/4 WITH MINOR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE POSITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This new NAM solution has some issues, that post from Tom Skilling's FB is pretty much the main issue I am seeing. Being that the surface isn't matching the upper levels. Plus even with the last event the NAM threw out some screwball guidance up until the event occurred, its almost getting to the point of where I am just not going to look at that model. Unless the Euro blinks any, full speed ahead. What did he say? The issue i see is what northern IWX mentioned and thus the northern front runner which the NAM/GFS has stronger which sends this thing farther to the south/se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 wow, the nam, gem, gfs now all give me 2-4 inches of wet snow. talk about a nice shift south, even the nam has come south a lot. lets see how this trends..maybe colder and deeper so it can get a more precip in the cold part of the system. Hoosier said if this is south like yesterdays GFS he gives all of us 10 bucks right? I might have to go on a payment plan if this keeps up. Not completely sold yet but I'm starting to come around to the possibility of a more wintry outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 To my eye the weaker solutions simply have a weaker upper wave and de-amplify the wave with time--possibly also owing to strong convection warming the upper troposphere and weakening the already slightly weaker wave. The ECMWF seems to have a stronger initial upper wave and it amplifies with time through baroclinic processes--and the tropospheric wave is strong enough to grow with tine instead of weaken with time. Tiny differences here can yield large results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What did he say? The issue i see is what northern IWX mentioned and thus the northern front runner which the NAM/GFS has stronger which sends this thing farther to the south/se. From his Facebook Here's the same 12 midnight Thursday night forecast from the European Center's global model forecast. This depiction shows the surface pressure field using tighter 2 mb increments. This offers a better "feel" of the system's pressure and wind fields. This is clearly a system we'll be monitoring. The GFS and other models are sending th...e system on southerly track bypassing the area. But GFS and other models have a southward bias on track forecasts early in such a storm's development (remember the Blizzard of 2011 projections several weeks ago which did the same thing?). I've found when you get a storm-supportive jet stream max wind configuration like the one depicted on an earlier post here-where 2 properly positioned wind maxes contribute to the lift which makes a storm--it's usually prudent to question sending the storm center at the surface as far south as the GFS model is. It's early yet and should be interesting to see how this works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 To go along with the HPC Prelim Disco: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 To go along with the HPC Prelim Disco: PERFECT heavy snow track!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 From his Facebook [/size] Thanks. The euro should be interesting. I'll be out though so hopefully someone else posts the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Do models tend to have trouble with energy coming north out of mexico, like they do with energy dropping out of canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.