Ajdos Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Des Moines...Thinking GFS for reasons: HE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK. SECOND...THE CIPS/SLU WINTER WEATHER ANALOGS SHOW THE MOST HIGHLY-CORRELATED PAST WINTER WEATHER EVENTS FALL IN LINE MORE WITH THE GFS THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FINALLY...THE NAEFS TOTAL QPF ACCUMULATION TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS TRACK. Would not surprise me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It seems when dtx downplays and is conservative we get hammered and when they get bullish and confident, like they are with this storm, we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Interesting to see DTX talk about an even further NW track than what the EURO/UKIE show, as that was my first guess. I suppose the one thing that might support a more suppressed solution is that northern stream kicker dropping into the plains towards the end of the NAM run which keeps the flow deamplified/progressive. Southern streams s/w that will spawn our storm is still well off shore. If the models aren't depicting its strength correctly due to poor sampling, that could definitely trend it further NW. Although, it's in the Pacific off the coast of Baja California. When was the last time we had a major snow producer that came on shore that far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 SREFS have been nudging SE the last 3 runs. SREF mean is still better than the OP NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 FWIW,depending on which method you use (Kuchera, 10:1 ratio, 11:1 ratio, Max-T Profile, Cobb) 00z NAM only showed 3-5" for DET through 84hr, though there's still more snow beyond 84hr. Its temperature profiles were quite marginal early on before improving over time. For MDW it showed 6-8" on cobb and the Kuchera method showed 4-6" (maybe an little precipitation beyond 84hr). So even if someone does manage to get a significant snow event out of this (assuming the storm's precipitation isn't all in the warm sector), it could be another nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like the northern stream comes through fast enough but not sure what's just to the west as the storm comes north. That's seems to be kicking it east. Euro will be interesting later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'd like to think this will start trending NW but I don't think it will happen. If it does, the Euro will be the first to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Another point in the SE camp's favor is that the NAM is showing the SE track without the convective feedback problems the GGEM/GFS are having. That being said, it's the NAM beyond 48 hours so that in and of itself might be good enough reason to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I should note though, usually when the UKMET is on the stronger/NW end of the consensus there's a fair chance the storm (from the SW) ends up trending NW. So that is one bright spot. Though I would feel better if the GGEM had its back too, because then the NW trend would be a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I should note though, usually when the UKMET is on the stronger/NW end of the consensus there's a fari chance the storm (from the SW) ends up trending NW. So that is one bright spot. Though I would feel better if the GGEM had its back too, because then the NW trend would be a lock. Is there any particular reason for that? Is the UKMET normally on the SE side of guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is there any particular reason for that? Is the UKMET normally on the SE side of guidance? That's a good question. I'm not sure of UKMET's biases. It seems like sometimes it can be a suppressed outlier, while other times it blows up these completely bogus bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 00z GGEM did in fact come in stronger/NW of its 12z run, but it has a long way to go from its fairly supressed 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 FWIW...The 6z GFS Ensembles also shifted farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The 12z GFS also came in a bit south of it's previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The 12z GFS also came in a bit south of it's previous run. Mason Dixon Line Snow/Rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The 12z Ukie is still a Missouri to NE. Ohio track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The 12z Ukie is still a Missouri to NE. Ohio track. Do the Nam and gfs look to having feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Per Skilling.... The GFS and other models are sending the system on southerly track bypassing the area. But GFS and other models have a southward bias on track forecasts early in such a storm's development (remember the Blizzard of 2011 projections several weeks ago which did the same thing?). I've found when you get a storm-supportive jet stream max wind configuration like the one depicted on an earlier post here-where 2 properly positioned wind maxes contribute to the lift which makes a storm--it's usually prudent to question sending the storm center at the surface as far south as the GFS model is. It's early yet and should be interesting to see how this works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Until the Euro shifts, we are still in the game up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Per Skilling.... The GFS and other models are sending the system on southerly track bypassing the area. But GFS and other models have a southward bias on track forecasts early in such a storm's development (remember the Blizzard of 2011 projections several weeks ago which did the same thing?). I've found when you get a storm-supportive jet stream max wind configuration like the one depicted on an earlier post here-where 2 properly positioned wind maxes contribute to the lift which makes a storm--it's usually prudent to question sending the storm center at the surface as far south as the GFS model is. It's early yet and should be interesting to see how this works out. I like, but am not surprised in the least, regarding his optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If the EURO shifts SE to any degree I think at least a tempered version of the GGEM/GFS idea has to be given consideration, despite the feedback problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If the EURO shifts SE to any degree I think at least a tempered version of the GGEM/GFS idea has to be given consideration, despite the feedback problems. No doubt. If the Euro continues trending SE, I'll give the GFS and GEM their due, despite logic telling me to ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 No doubt. If the Euro continues trending SE, I'll give the GFS and GEM their due, despite logic telling me to ignore them. There's a tendency to throw the baby out with the bathwater. The GFS is still suffering for feedback issues on the 12z run, but that shouldn't cause us to completely discount a SE solution if other factors dictate it may have merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 dang! Csnavy was posting and then he stopped. Would love for a met to give us his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If the EURO shifts SE to any degree I think at least a tempered version of the GGEM/GFS idea has to be given consideration, despite the feedback problems. the solution that doesnt yield any snow of significance in toronto and ottawa is the way to lean heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z NAM is lol-tastic, dropping 3-6" here. GFS would essentially be a miss, 12z GGEM looks like mainly rain despite a good track. And then of course the 0z Euro. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 There's a tendency to throw the baby out with the bathwater. The GFS is still suffering for feedback issues on the 12z run, but that shouldn't cause us to completely discount a SE solution if other factors dictate it may have merit. Yes. If the Euro scores a coup once again, though, I think it's about time to only look at the Euro in future storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 the solution that doesnt yield any snow of significance in toronto and ottawa is the way to lean heavily. lol, I have no doubt that if the NW camp is correct, it will continue to trend NW in the last 24 hours until the point I get rain. So I'm content with this one. No chance from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, 12z GGEM is a fair bit north of the 0z run. 0z @ 12z Fri: 1000 over W VA 12z @ 12z Fri: 998 over N WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 looks like John dee is all aboard the NW train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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