dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I thought that was going to be the case with this last storm but we were at 25-26 for the whole event. Probably end up being that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 euro can't even get me some severe right.. that just **** the bed for storm 2 after looking good early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 euro can't even get me some severe right.. that just **** the bed for storm 2 after looking good early. Was going to say OT but if this storm is stronger I think that could make the next storm go a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Was going to say OT but if this storm is stronger I think that could make the next storm go a bit further south. Doubt it. enough room between.. If the euro didn't cut if off it would be pissing on most. No doubt in my mind the next storm brings me rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 euro can't even get me some severe right.. that just **** the bed for storm 2 after looking good early. That is because this run has it well closed off farther east. 12z run opened it up as the new low got going in Texas and allowed it to follow the flow ( so to speak ) ne and bomb as it did so. Once you remove a system from the main flow/steering ( a cutoff ) it can go anywhere. Yes this is a cheapened explanation again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Big torch incoming from west on euro at the end.. Little different than the arctic air to the west at 12z. Gotta love models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That is because this run has it well closed off farther east. 12z run opened it up as the new low got going in Texas and allowed it to follow the flow ( so to speak ) ne and bomb as it did so. Once you remove a system from the main flow/steering ( a cutoff ) it can go anywhere. Yes this is a cheapened explanation again. No that makes sense. This baby has some serious potential if its realized I bet.. Whether it all comes together who knows. Probably don't want it all to come together east of the Mississippi if you like snow anyways. This is going to be a monster I just have that feeling.. Haven't felt like this over any storm the last two winters even the groundhogs day blizzard. No more OT i promise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Big torch incoming from west on euro at the end.. Little different than the arctic air to the west at 12z. Gotta love models. Yep. That is as ugly of a pattern one can get if you like winter weather anywhere in the lower 48. It is only one run and way out so i would not sweat it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yep. That is as ugly of a pattern one can get if you like winter weather anywhere in the lower 48. It is only one run and way out so i would not sweat it yet. No doubt and I bet its total BS. This storm here kinna reminds of the groundhogs day storm up here.. race of the cold air to the north and this storm just doesn't have the juice atm to get it done let alone all the time I had to track it and time for the NW trend. This one so so feels like the toronto's gang long deserved big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just catching to beginnings of the next system on my output, High points right now is in NE KS areas, seeing 3-6' snowfall accumulation from 24Feb03Z to 25Feb03Z. Just a broad brush of 1-3" from MO-SD-IL right now. Data is uploaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 6z NAM went SE fairly hard. Overall trend the last 2 model runs has been for the models to go SE with the sfc low track but that's not dissuading me from sticking with my rain for YYZ call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 06z NAM definitely took a shift southeast of the 00z. The SREF mean is further southeast as well. Could be a nice storm from LAF to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Geez, yet another winter storm to track. I'm still pretty much burned out from this last storm. Hopefully we can get a more powdery snow or a less windier storm this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is true, I am hoping beyond hope that we can crack 40" this month, which I believe we are about 12" away. This is just awesome. DTW is at 27" on the month, if we can get 11.5" more it would be the snowiest Feb and snowiest month period of all-time. If we can get any more than 1.5" it will be the 2nd snowiest February, and if we get 8" more it would be the 2nd snowiest month of all time. NEXT WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT/COMPACT UPPER WAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS ONE OF THE KEY PLAYERS. THIS PV ANOMALY WILL BE DROPPING AWFULLY FAR TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE MAKING THE EAST/NORTHEAST TURN THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE SYSTEM TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AS IT COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE SCHEMES OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS LOOKS TO BE COMING INTO PLAY...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DISREGARDED THE WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH KICKS IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO RIVER BY 6Z FRIDAY (SEE 850-700 MB PVU) AND DOES NOT ALLOW THE LOW TO DEEPEN. 00Z UKMET/NAM AND PERSISTENT EUROPEAN SOLUTION GIVES ONE INCREASING CONFIDENCE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL RECEIVE A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. STILL WILL NEED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY OR WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN WAVE AND MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS ESTABLISHED OR BLEEDING IN...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH NAM INDICATING 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4 G/KG. THE CONCERN IS THE LOW WILL WRAP UP TOO FAST AND TRACK EVEN FARTHER WEST...WHICH WOULD SPELL MORE OF A MIXED BAG. BUT...AT THIS POINT...PLANNING ON HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is that 40" for the month? or season? I have had about 2" this month!! Incredible. For the month. Detroit officially is at 27.0" in February and 54.2" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Geez, yet another winter storm to track. I'm still pretty much burned out from this last storm. Hopefully we can get a more powdery snow or a less windier storm this time. It wont be powderier, and powder is my favorite...but who cares really, snow is snow! In the past 2 weeks we went from 16" on the ground to nothing back up to 10" and if the euro is right we are going WAY over a foot again by Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It wont be powderier, and powder is my favorite...but who cares really, snow is snow! In the past 2 weeks we went from 16" on the ground to nothing back up to 10" and if the euro is right we are going WAY over a foot again by Friday LOL, Only if the Euro does not shift S/E then we are KINDA locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It wont be powderier, and powder is my favorite...but who cares really, snow is snow! In the past 2 weeks we went from 16" on the ground to nothing back up to 10" and if the euro is right we are going WAY over a foot again by Friday Pretty amazing actually that DTX has a shot at 40"+ in one month. I dont think its happened since jan 99' I know in northern Oakland we had over 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pretty amazing actually that DTX has a shot at 40"+ in one month. I dont think its happened since jan 99' I know in northern Oakland we had over 40" Detroit has never officially had 40" in a calendar month (they have in 30-day periods a few times). Snowiest months: 1.) 38.4” (February 1908) 2.) 34.9” (December 1974) 3.) 30.2” (March 1900) 4.) 29.6” (January 1978) 5.) 28.5” (February 1881) 6.) 28.0” (February 1900) 7.) 28.0” (February 1926) 8.) 27.4” (December 1929) 9.) 27.3” (January 1999) 10.) 27.0” (February 2010 and February 2011 so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Interesting to read that several afd's are thinking it may wrap up and head further west while the models slowly trend se. Who knows all of them besides the euro seem to be having feedback issues. Not sure how u can tell when a model has issues but until the euro budges I'm not worried. It is interesting the drop off of precip in the cold part. 1.3 in Toledo while. 30 at grr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM much weaker more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM much weaker more south Looks the same to me. Amazing how there is two storms on the same map...one west one east. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Compared to last nights 0z run of the nam, the storm is weaker thus more south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Compared to last nights 0z run of the nam, the storm is weaker thus more south track. 5MB weaker.weaker in the mid levels..more SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Compared to last nights 0z run of the nam, the storm is weaker thus more south track. Yes, it's even slightly SE of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 MFD DTX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes, it's even slightly SE of the 06z run. Yes but I compare 12z to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes but I compare 12z to 0z. Des Moines...Thinking GFS for reasons: HE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK. SECOND...THE CIPS/SLU WINTER WEATHER ANALOGS SHOW THE MOST HIGHLY-CORRELATED PAST WINTER WEATHER EVENTS FALL IN LINE MORE WITH THE GFS THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FINALLY...THE NAEFS TOTAL QPF ACCUMULATION TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 MFD DTX: It seems when dtx downplays and is conservative we get hammered and when they get bullish and confident, like they are with this storm, we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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