cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 FWIW, the 21z SREF mean 850mb temps at midnight Thursday night. Looks pretty similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 talk about some great looking VVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Thanks for explaining and boy do I miss the lows cutting to Wisconsin unlike most of you. Is it a positive AO and NAO to get this Wisconsin cutter? Yes that is preferred along with a -PNA/+EPO. Can still get them with some +PNA ridging as well. In short you want ridging in the east when the low pops out of CO and no blocking at all to the north/northeast in southern/se Canada. Always exceptions ofcourse such as we just saw. This changes either way as we head into Spring and or fall as the cold etc retreats towards the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well the discussion regarding the GFS was with the old "qpf bombs" the 40 km GFS had. In that regard--it is way better than previous. As for the storm--I do personally believe it will be farther N than the current GFS--my points through the nite have mainly been to debunk old myths which have long since passed Kinda like the old "Euro always leaves energy in the SW" bias that is brought up far too often. I don't deny teleconnection patterns, bias, or anything else as they are just another piece of the puzzle. Yeah i hear you and fully agree with you as well. They/GFS etc have gotten better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Harry, spatially speaking, is a +EPO ridge west of a -PNA trough/zonal area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 UKMET: Ukie still in with the Euro/NAM crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 St. Louis WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 St. Louis WRF... Add another to the Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm still pessimistic, but we're not that far away on the 00z NAM and we do get a little bit of snow. Fair enough, but I think we already know the outcome. Stranger things have happened though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 St. Louis WRF... That's either some heavy duty cold rain or a plastering for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Add another to the Euro camp Looks good but ill pass on being in the bullseyes 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Add another to the Euro camp Check out the nice moisture feed. Pretty damn impressive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I noticed the SREF ptype maps don't show a ton of PL/ZR with this storm, which makes sense considering the lack of antecedent arctic ridging. Also means the RA/SN line is probably going to be displaced further NW than it otherwise may have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Fair enough, but I think we already know the outcome. Stranger things have happened though. Id' normally start getting concerned about ice with some of these tracks but it doesn't look like there's much of a transition zone. It's mostly rain or snow as it's being shown right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 St. Louis WRF... a big hit for us..getting a bit more tingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Id' normally start getting concerned about ice with some of these tracks but it doesn't look like there's much of a transition zone. It's mostly rain or snow as it's being shown right now. Could one of those that the track works, but the snow/rain line is displaced father NW than usual. Euro has been beating that drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Accuweather has 8-12" in LAF Thursday night... The big winner is AOH with 1-2' of snow that night. I'm on the south bandwagon but good ole inaccuweather.. That shathole place is fooked with spin master JB gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I noticed the SREF ptype maps don't show a ton of PL/ZR with this storm, which makes sense considering the lack of antecedent arctic ridging. Also means the RA/SN line is probably going to be displaced further NW than it otherwise may have been. Id' normally start getting concerned about ice with some of these tracks but it doesn't look like there's much of a transition zone. It's mostly rain or snow as it's being shown right now. Could one of those that the track works, but the snow/rain line is displaced father NW than usual. Euro has been beating that drum. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 a big hit for us..getting a bit more tingly. Yeah I'm feeling pretty good about things. Of course I was feeling pretty good about getting into the warm sector yesterday and it missed us by about 20 miles lol. Hopefully the Euro continues to look good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm on the south bandwagon but good ole inaccuweather.. That shathole place is fooked with spin master JB gone. Yeah with HM leading the way it is going to get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah with HM leading the way it is going to get ugly. Baro, Have you ever used Accuwx forums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just another image from the St. Louis WRF, but it shows the potential of this baroclinic zone. Look at the contrast in temps at 850mb. 8C near St. Louis, and quickly drops to -4C near the QC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Check out the nice moisture feed. Pretty damn impressive.... Yeah that is some extremely impressive PWATs for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Baro, Have you ever used Accuwx forums? Never. In fact never really used any until americanwx. Why so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Never. In fact never really used any until now. Why so? Just wonderin. No reason really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just another image from the St. Louis WRF, but it shows the potential of this baroclinic zone. Look at the contrast in temps at 850mb. 8C near St. Louis, and quickly drops to -4C near the QC... Yeah and look at the flow over Northern Michigan, cold air would certainly be coming as it moved ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just wonderin. No reason really. I have only heard of HM's clownery from others. He sounds like an awful met though. JB had his moments but I won'y deny his ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I have only heard of HM's clownery from others. He sounds like an awful met though. JB had his moments but I won'y deny his ability. I guess I don't really pay attention to any of them, I have heard of them but that is it. If HM is as bad as they say then how can he even have a job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z ECMWF... 66hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. Oklahoma. Same position/strength as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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