cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Certainly a wide spread on the new guidance this evening. NAM looks the best given the strong baroclinicy in place. The GFS looks like it would be okay if it didn't suffer the usual feedback issues it's well known for. I'm not quite sure what's up with the GEM. It's hands down the outlier, but it's remained consistent with it's suppressed argument for the past few days. The NAM may not have the exact track and strength nailed quite yet, but I think it and the Euro are the closest to the reality of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Despite my pessimism, I'm still watching this with some interest. We might end up being more rain than not but we're not gonna torch with these depictions unless the surface low shifts substantially farther north. You have more faith than I do. Certainly feels like 36 and rain to me...pretty much like today. Hoping for a miracle though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Certainly a wide spread on the new guidance this evening. NAM looks the best given the strong baroclinicy in place. The GFS looks like it would be okay if it didn't suffer the usual feedback issues it's well known for. I'm not quite sure what's up with the GEM. It's hands down the outlier, but it's remained consistent with it's suppressed argument for the past few days. The NAM may not have the exact track and strength nailed quite yet, but I think it and the Euro are the closest to the reality of this storm. As I mentioned above--the old GFS was famous for the QPF bombs. The GFS is a spectral wave model so its resolution changes a bit with latitude--but the old version was about 40 km. The "new" GFS which debuted in July I believe is down to 25 km and has a new convective scheme as well as a number of other improvements. I can say for a fact it has certainly improved in that department--and testing by NCEP also showed that. It is to be expected with an increase in resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM still south... 84hr low in Western VA Intra-model consistency has been pretty good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Certainly a wide spread on the new guidance this evening. NAM looks the best given the strong baroclinicy in place. The GFS looks like it would be okay if it didn't suffer the usual feedback issues it's well known for. I'm not quite sure what's up with the GEM. It's hands down the outlier, but it's remained consistent with it's suppressed argument for the past few days. The NAM may not have the exact track and strength nailed quite yet, but I think it and the Euro are the closest to the reality of this storm. Per the HPC disco, it also had feedback issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah LAF 33-40 with rain Our loss is your gain though. Good luck with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 For sh*ts and giggles(not so much this time), the gaps has a C. Missouri to NE. Ohio track. Right track orientation, and probably not far from where I think it ends up, certainly falls in line with the Euro and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Our loss is your gain though. Good luck with this one. This is true, I am hoping beyond hope that we can crack 40" this month, which I believe we are about 12" away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This storm that just passed was a CO low of sorts. the Blizzard was a Texas low. Baro can probably explain better why it did not take the "typical" CO low track up into WI. In short it had to do with blocking in southern Canada etc. Thats the cheapened version. Thanks for explaining and boy do I miss the lows cutting to Wisconsin unlike most of you. Is it a positive AO and NAO to get this Wisconsin cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Right track orientation, and probably not far from where I think it ends up, certainly falls in line with the Euro and NAM. Don't really see much cold air to work with as of yet. With the northern stream already passed, you would think more colder air would filter into this thing. But it doesn't really deepen and its' bringing very moist gulf air north so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Per the HPC disco, it also had feedback issues... I can honestly say it looks more like the GGEM being an awful global model--especially with the way the upper wave "progresses" through the flow (I am referencing the 12Z). From 66-96 hrs it develops two odd looking separate upper waves from one. It doesn't even look realistic--and I have seen the GGEM do weird things like this before in non-convective events. One reason the model is the worst of the globals--well except the unknowns like the NOGAPS and JMA, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is true, I am hoping beyond hope that we can crack 40" this month, which I believe we are about 12" away. 40" month. Haven't had one of those here since Jan 1999 here. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is true, I am hoping beyond hope that we can crack 40" this month, which I believe we are about 12" away. Certainly looks possible. Dare I say a potentially epic February for you guys. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is true, I am hoping beyond hope that we can crack 40" this month, which I believe we are about 12" away. Is that 40" for the month? or season? I have had about 2" this month!! Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is that 40" for the month? or season? I have had about 2" this month!! Incredible. whats your season total up there so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can honestly say it looks more like the GGEM being an awful global model--especially with the way the upper wave "progresses" through the flow (I am referencing the 12Z). From 66-96 hrs it develops two odd looking separate upper waves from one. It doesn't even look realistic--and I have seen the GGEM do weird things like this before in non-convective events. One reason the model is the worst of the globals--well except the unknowns like the NOGAPS and JMA, etc. Why do they have these 3 models if there so crappy? Are these 3 even really used at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 whats your season total up there so far? IMBY at about 42" which is by Lake Superior if you go inland it is about 75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With so much model spread on a significant storm system that's now within the 84hr range, I think it's pertinent to wait up for the Godfather here in another hour. Sorry, a little Old School reference there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Why do they have these 3 models if there so crappy? Are these 3 even really used at all. A long discussion. The GGEM is Canada's, the JMA is Japan's, and the NOGAPS is used by the Navy. All have various uses--and sometimes they are used for things besides simply weather modeling such as initializing other products such as oceanographic models, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Despite my pessimism, I'm still watching this with some interest. We might end up being more rain than not but we're not gonna torch with these depictions unless the surface low shifts substantially farther north. Accuweather has 8-12" in LAF Thursday night... The big winner is AOH with 1-2' of snow that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 A long discussion. The GGEM is Canada's, the JMA is Japan's, and the NOGAPS is used by the Navy. All have various uses--and sometimes they are used for things besides simply weather modeling such as initializing other products such as oceanographic models, etc. Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z GEFS: Pretty much ends up in the middle between the OP run and the northern consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 As I mentioned above--the old GFS was famous for the QPF bombs. The GFS is a spectral wave model so its resolution changes a bit with latitude--but the old version was about 40 km. The "new" GFS which debuted in July I believe is down to 25 km and has a new convective scheme as well as a number of other improvements. I can say for a fact it has certainly improved in that department--and testing by NCEP also showed that. It is to be expected with an increase in resolution. I *think* we have not noticed it as much recently because of all the blocking etc that was had. Ever since the blocking gave way the models have gone back to their typical biases with storm tracks. Just not as extreme as they had once been except with the RGEM perhaps. Have not looked as closely at 500mb etc so not as sure how they have done with that. Why again i keep very close tabs on the NAO/AO/EPO and such. Can usually get a good idea as how how the models are gonna trend ( or whatever you wish to call it ) via following that stuff. Ofcourse if the models end up wrong with the NAO/AO and they suddenly flip the other way this method can fail especially the farther out the system is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Certainly looks possible. Dare I say a potentially epic February for you guys. Enjoy! This pattern is definitely exciting. I love spring weather more than any other season for this very reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You have more faith than I do. Certainly feels like 36 and rain to me...pretty much like today. Hoping for a miracle though... I'm still pessimistic, but we're not that far away on the 00z NAM and we do get a little bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Certainly looks possible. Dare I say a potentially epic February for you guys. Enjoy! Yeah as Josh noted in the main Feb thread. That will be a challenge because our snowiest February is actually our snowiest all-time month as well. However we have an EXCELLENT shot at #2: 1.) 38.4" - Feb 1908 2.) 28.5" - Feb 1881 3.) 28.0" - Feb 1900 4.) 28.0" - Feb 1926 5.) 27.0" - Feb 2010 6.) 27.0" - Feb 2011 thru 7pm Feb 21st ALSO.....we are within spitting distance of cracking the top 20 snowiest winters. At 54.2", DTW is currently tied at #24, just 2.5" more snow and we enter the top 20. If we do, it will be an amazing feat that 5 of the past 9 winters are in the top 20 snowiest winters, considering its a timespan of record of 130 years! As you can see we are only 1.5" away from #2 and 11.4 from top and it looks like 13" from 40". Hell If we do 30" for the month that would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I *think* we have not noticed it as much recently because of all the blocking etc that was had. Ever since the blocking gave way the models have gone back to their typical biases with storm tracks. Just not as extreme as they had once been except with the RGEM perhaps. Have not looked as closely at 500mb etc so not as sure how they have done with that. Why again i keep very close tabs on the NAO/AO/EPO and such. Can usually get a good idea as how how the models are gonna trend ( or whatever you wish to call it ) via following that stuff. Ofcourse if the models end up wrong with the NAO/AO and they suddenly flip the other way this method can fail especially the farther out the system is. Well the discussion regarding the GFS was with the old "qpf bombs" the 40 km GFS had. In that regard--it is way better than previous. As for the storm--I do personally believe it will be farther N than the current GFS--my points through the nite have mainly been to debunk old myths which have long since passed Kinda like the old "Euro always leaves energy in the SW" bias that is brought up far too often. I don't deny teleconnection patterns, bias, or anything else as they are just another piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah as Josh noted in the main Feb thread. As you can see we are only 1.5" away from #2 and 11.4 from top and it looks like 13" from 40". Hell If we do 30" for the month that would be amazing. We have approximately 20" around here... currently 7th all time. 5.2" would make us #1 though, making it back to back top 5 snowiest February's ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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