Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:18 PM, Chicago WX said: It gonna rain. Geez what a miserable LAF fail. I knew you'd be all in with the 18z NAM. Hard to not be concerned though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:17 PM, Stebo48858 said: This time you and I both cash in on snow? Ummmm IDK, with a massive shift in the nam, what's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:19 PM, baum001 said: your giving up that quick? 18Z NAM what's the credibility on that? It's been really close anyway.. Total par for the course this year here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:18 PM, kab2791 said: DTX sticking to their guns may pay off nicely Trend to the NW always seemed like the better idea given the teleconnections and the general upper level pattern. Had the EURO not been inching SE the last 2-3 runs, I don't think many of us would have wavered from that thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The one thing I can't respect about the NAM is that it's consistently gone well NW of previous solutions on it's 18z runs, but that may just be because I get screwed a bit by that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 150 miles in one run..Looks like the NAM found the missing puzzle piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:18 PM, Chicago WX said: It gonna rain. Geez what a miserable LAF fail. That 33-40 rain call I made earlier in the week looks like it might end up being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nice Warning criteria 6-10" even for Detroit on the NAM...if 00z holds with similar solutions, expect watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Sampling for this system won't be complete until tommorow right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:20 PM, Mottster said: It's been really close anyway.. Total par for the course this year here.. This solution is very possible...I've been saying it in this thread and also in PM with Chicago WX. Finally decided to bite after 12z but I may get bit for doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:22 PM, Hoosier said: This solution is very possible...I've been saying it in this thread and also in PM with Chicago WX. Finally decided to bite after 12z but I may get bit for doing that. I was counting on that 10 bucks... Maybe next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 only the energy itself can stop itself. still coming onshore at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll take one order of 18z NAM to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:22 PM, Stebo48858 said: That 33-40 rain call I made earlier in the week looks like it might end up being right RFD to MKE special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:24 PM, Alek said: I'll take one order of 18z NAM to go please Did you retrieve your towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:25 PM, Hoosier said: Did you retrieve your towel? Baum stole it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:22 PM, Moneyman said: Sampling for this system won't be complete until tommorow right? Yes, for the 12z run as long as it doesn't slow down anymore. That's why I'm not geting excited about this run (despite its perfection) because I know this storm isn't done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:26 PM, Powerball said: Yes, for the 12z run as long as it doesn't slow down anymore. That's why I'm not geting excited about this run (despite its perfection) because I know this storm isn't done trending. Hedge your bets! and double wrap it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I-80 in Indiana gets nailed on this run...12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:25 PM, Hoosier said: Did you retrieve your towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That 18Z NAM storm is the most impressive CCB you will see on a positive tilt low ampitude wave like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 YYZ goes from a couple of hundreths to well over 0.75" in two runs of the NAM, with a sweet stripe of 1-1.25" just to my south. lol. Again, like the idea of a somewhat further NW but this might be 18z NAM shenanigans. Nobody get their hopes up, or in Tim's case, down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:28 PM, baroclinic_instability said: That 18Z NAM storm is the most impressive CCB you will see on a positive tilt low ampitude wave like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm guessing the reason why NAM is farther NW was because it had a stronger low coming out of OK or farther north/west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:28 PM, baroclinic_instability said: That 18Z NAM storm is the most impressive CCB you will see on a positive tilt low ampitude wave like this. plausible? likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:29 PM, Organizing Low said: On 2/23/2011 at 8:29 PM, snowstormcanuck said: plausible? likely? Plausible yes and very impressive. I won't say likely based off one run though. Just analyzing the NAM verbatim though--that is impressive and it has the energetic portion of the upper wave positioned perfectly in the overall shortwave to develop such a strong mid level low and spectacular CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:28 PM, snowstormcanuck said: YYZ goes from a couple of hundreths to well over 0.75" in two runs of the NAM, with a sweet stripe of 1-1.25" just to my south. lol. Again, like the idea of a somewhat further NW but this might be 18z NAM shenanigans. Nobody get their hopes up, or in Tim's case, down. It's over for LAF. But hey congrats to the WI and MI people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I bet DTX Issues watches for Lenawae, Monroe and Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:25 PM, Alek said: RFD to MKE special Got a long way to go to get that track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 8:35 PM, Stebo48858 said: Got a long way to go to get that track... I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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