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Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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  On 2/23/2011 at 6:40 PM, Blizzard23 said:

I have been telling people at work and on facebook today that watches should be posted by 4:00pm for the IWX counties. Hopefully my predictions are accurate! :-) Today's model runs seems to confirm IWX's morning concerns about this storm's snow/ice potential and warrants the issuance of watches in today's AFD update. That is my opinion though...

I actually think IWX will hold off on any watch right now.... just a gut feeling. This storm gives me a very marginal type sloppy feeling. With March almost here, I'd like to see one more decent snow, though. I'm beginning to feel a little too far north with this one.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 6:48 PM, Hoosier said:

Just wait a few days.

Oh I know ..

But my yard so much needs to dry out, so I can send out the kid to clean up the backyard. We've got 3 dogs, and since the backyard has been frozen and snow covered for awhile now, you can imagine what it looks like.. :lol:

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  On 2/23/2011 at 6:56 PM, Mottster said:

Oh I know ..

But my yard so much needs to dry out, so I can send out the kid to clean up the backyard. We've got 3 dogs, and since the backyard has been frozen and snow covered for awhile now, you can imagine what it looks like.. :lol:

Well, the water/flooding concerns will only be going up.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 6:56 PM, Mottster said:

Oh I know ..

But my yard so much needs to dry out, so I can send out the kid to clean up the backyard. We've got 3 dogs, and since the backyard has been frozen and snow covered for awhile now, you can imagine what it looks like.. :lol:

Well it'll be buried again or floating in a temporary river...take your pick. :devilsmiley:

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  On 2/23/2011 at 6:46 PM, Mottster said:

Yep, I love snow as much as anyone here.. But, ready to move towards some warmer temps and plain rain.. :yikes:

No doubt that Chicago can have all the snow for the rest of the winter.. So here's to Chicago being targeted from here on out! :drunk:

We don't want it...:)

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  On 2/23/2011 at 6:22 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Horrible excuse.

It all falls at night.

Good dose of salt on any parking lot will keep it to water..:guitar:. My thinking might be different then yours. Even so .17 of QPF at 10:1 ratios and a dose of mix on the front end and warm ground from daylight hours should still make that hard to accumulate. Rapidly approaching the time of year where even at night we need it to snow at a good clip to accumulate on roadways and such. Trees and lawns not so much...:)

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:10 PM, baum001 said:

Good dose of salt on any parking lot will keep it to water..:guitar:. My thinking might be different then yours. Even so .17 of QPF at 10:1 ratios and a dose of mix on the front end and warm ground from daylight hours should still make that hard to accumulate. Rapidly approaching the time of year where even at night we need it to snow at a good clip to accumulate on roadways and such. Trees and lawns not so much...:)

Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:16 PM, Tony said:

Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing.

oh snap

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:16 PM, Tony said:

Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing.

As well, a big multi-vehicle wreck down in St. Louis this morning from a glaze on the roads. But hey that late February sun angle makes sure everything is wet than frozen... :arrowhead:

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:16 PM, Tony said:

Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing.

not on my parking lots :thumbsup: hate to say it but part of that was caused by folks(IDOT,county,municipalities) expecting a 2-5 inch snowfall which never materialized and no warning for freezing drizzle. Add to that day b4 rain washed all the roads free of salt chemicals.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:32 PM, baum001 said:

not on my parking lots :thumbsup: hate to say it but part of that was caused by folks(IDOT,county,municipalities) expecting a 2-5 inch snowfall which never materialized and no warning for freezing drizzle. Add to that day b4 rain washed all the roads free of salt chemicals.

ORD gonna break the February record. Deal with it. :snowman:

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:48 PM, Hoosier said:

Even if the lift is not colocated, I don't think that is going to prevent heavy bursts.

But it will probably keep the actual accumulations from those bursts subdued a half inch or so.

4-8" sounds like a fair forecast for this storm, with isolated higher amounts.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:50 PM, Powerball said:

But it will prboably keep the actual accumulations from those bursts subdued a half inch or so.

4-8" sounds like a fair forecast for this storm, with isolated higher amounts.

Something about the track just doesn't seem right to me. I think once its onshore it may go a bit more NW. Toledo looks like the best spot as of now.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:52 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Something about the track just doesn't seem right to me. I think once its onshore it may go a bit more NW. Toledo looks like the best spot as of now.

There's nothing to really stop it from coming a little further NW, and like I said models handle these baja systems very poorly in this range.

Addmittingly the models have come to a somewhat better consensus as of the 12z runs with some better (though not yet full) sampling.

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  On 2/23/2011 at 7:52 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Something about the track just doesn't seem right to me. I think once its onshore it may go a bit more NW. Toledo looks like the best spot as of now.

Well.....cough cough.. Im always the one who is a negative nancy...Im changing my tune after the NW trending as of late. Im once again on board. lol :guitar:

Yes TOL looks to be the winner as of now. But a few more runs NW and our home base is game. More watching and waiting.

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