Toronto4 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Big hit for Toronto on tonight's 00z Euro run. 0.86" QPF (all frozen). It looks like the low just passes south of the lower Great Lakes as it heads off into New England by 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 KDTW anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 6:22 AM, Moneyman said: I guess I was wrong on the snow totals. ORD gets 9-12 ish (close to the rain/snow line), MKE gets .5 QPF and up here is about .3 QPF. ya 850's are a good deal below freezing but we are around for the for a good portion of it, a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 6:28 AM, Ajdos said: KDTW anyone? .96" liquid...close call there..right near the RA/SN line. atleast a few inches at the end. FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.2 0.0 1005 94 100 0.15 550 546 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -0.1 1.8 996 96 83 0.64 540 543 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.1 -5.9 1001 87 97 0.14 534 533 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -3.1 -7.7 1017 77 29 0.03 540 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The key is how strong it gets between hr 66 and 78. GFS is about 6-7 mb weaker with the low, which causes it to be strengthen slower. EURO is like sub 1003 or so on the TX/OK/KS area, while GFS is 1008 in C/W. OK. NAM is like the EURO while GEM is like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BTW, EURO has another 996 low near C. IL at HR 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 6:32 AM, Moneyman said: The key is how strong it gets between hr 66 and 78. GFS is about 6-7 mb weaker with the low, which causes it to be strengthen slower. EURO is like sub 1003 or so on the TX/OK/KS area, while GFS is 1008 in C/W. OK. NAM is like the EURO while GEM is like the GFS. NAM is even stronger, 1001mb over PYX at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 UKIE has the same strength as the EURO at hr 84, but it starts out a bit east. UKIE/EURO/NAM (most likley) vs GFS/GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sorry to ask but anyone have DVN precip for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 6:41 AM, STL said: Sorry to ask but anyone have DVN precip for this one? .69" liquid, start off with some rain but mostly snow. 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Based upon the current tracks on the models are showing I think out this way the surface temps are a bit higher than what will be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 6:38 AM, Moneyman said: UKIE has the same strength as the EURO at hr 84, but it starts out a bit east. UKIE/EURO/NAM (most likley) vs GFS/GEM I kinda like this matchup...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:52 AM, Northern_IN_Wx said: I'm thinking at this point this one will track farther north and west than the last several operational GFS runs. Why? The 500 mb shortwave trough takes on a slight negative tilt. Global models, especially the GFS, struggle with the low level forcing and latent heat/convective elements as a more dynamical neg tilt scenario unfolds... and normally have the sfc/850 mb displaced too far to the south and east. And more obvious reasons would be the Euro's solution and for the fact that the GEFS is farther northwest (as Hoosier mentioned above). So...I'm thinking a rain event for LAF/me/DET/OH crew. Wintry stuff from Chicago and northwest. That sounds like a good analysis to me. I was kind of hoping that this would hook enough to pull some severe action north of the OH river. I will be in Southern IN Thursday and Friday for a workshop called "Weather for Emergency Managers". Maybe we can get some real-time severe to analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 00z Euro is colder than the the 12z run has been. Still warm but it closed the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 11:46 AM, KokomoWX said: The 00z Euro is colder than the the 12z run has been. Still warm but it closed the gap. The key of this storm is how quickly the northern stream piece can move along and where the front will lay for the southern stream piece to ride up the front. I think somewhere close to the Euro 00z run might end up being correct in the end, The GFS is too far south/flat with it ejecting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is a NW trender if I ever saw one. I fully expect mostly liquid here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 12:19 PM, snowstormcanuck said: This is a NW trender if I ever saw one. I fully expect mostly liquid here. Maybe over by you but the Key is watching how fast the Northern stream piece moves along. Its tough to say yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 DTX A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL THEN EXIST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITHSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES. THE NORTHERNAND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET WILL THEN TRY TO CONVERGE ON THEAREA ON THURSDAY...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE A NORTHERN STREAMWAVE/TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH FIRST OR ARRIVE AT THE SAMETIME...WITH MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERN WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OFLOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DEFORMATION ZONE LINING UP OVERUS (PER 00Z EUROPEAN/ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING). HAVE BUMPED UP POPSTHURSDAY NIGHT TO 50 PERCENT AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OFACCUMULATING SNOW IN HWO...ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OFPRECIPITATION IS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE AS WELL.FRIDAY AND BEYOND..UNCERTAINLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIRADVANCING EAST...AS POSITIVITY TILTED LONGWAVE WAVE TROUGH LOOKSRELUCTANT TO EXIT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH LARGE SURFACEHIGH HOLDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12z NAM at hr 84 has a 1000 mb low just west of STL. Good snowstorm for IA and it has more precip in the cold sector. I'm guessing if you expanded it out a little bit, it would end up near or just north Indy. Sim Radar at HR 84: One last image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Any thoughts kab or TS on where the NAM would have went after hr 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Quad Cities NWS has been thinking that with the snow field set up to the north this storm will end up even farther nw than what the NAM and Euro are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:03 PM, Moneyman said: Any thoughts kab or TS on where the NAM would have went after hr 84? The way the heights are suppressed to the North, I'm wondering what kind of ENE trajectory this might take eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm guessing it goes into C. IL and then moves ENE from there because of the high and it's blocking. So from OK/MO/C.IL to NE IND to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:05 PM, kab2791 said: The way the heights are suppressed to the North, I'm wondering what kind of ENE trajectory this might take eventually. Yeah maybe a St Louis to Cleveland line or right as us here in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It gonna rain. Miserable miserable finish to winter here. Good luck to those up north with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Some of the SREF's take this to sub 996 in C. ILL: Link: http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Looks like the ARW is farther north/stronger while the ETA is weak and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12z GFS still way south, drops nothing on Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Seems like the low that goes through canada warms things up a bit, blocks it from cutting, thus it looks like mostly a rain storm with very little in the cold sector. Alot of mets talking about the severe weather potential with this. If we can get the tornadoes to come up into the cold air we could get a snownado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:07 PM, hawkeye_wx said: 12z GFS still way south, drops nothing on Iowa. I'm not buying the flat and weaker track that the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:29 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I'm not buying the flat and weaker track that the GFS is showing. I agree. I also think the NAM is too far NW. I have noticed lately when storms first show up on the NAM they are way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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