Looking for input on latest Red River spring flood outlook

[fargoflooding]

In late January, the National Weather Service produced the first major Spring flood outlook for the Red River Valley. In Fargo, they gave us some very concerning news about what we had to look forward to this spring. They basically gave us a 20% chance that the flooding this year would be the same as what we had in 2009. They sited a moist fall, greater than average snowfall and a La Nina moisture pattern as reasons why the outlook was looking bad.

Yesterday, the NWS came out with revised spring flood outlook and it was WORSE. Obviously, the moist fall and expected La Nina moisture pattern would remain constants in the predictions for this spring. What I don't understand is how the outlook could be worse based on the weather pattern between the last prediction and this one. We have had substantially less snowfall than average since the last prediction. Really, we have had barely any snowfall since the last prediction. Although our neighbors to the south had a bit more snow, it was still far below average. Shouldn't the updated prediction be a reflection of the weather between the last prediction and now? The amount of snow that has fallen would seem pretty close to ideal between the last prediction and yesterday's.

Beyond the snowfall, we have also had warm temperatures. Snow has been melting. Not much of it has actually hit the river, and it sounds like most of the water is still in the snow, but water has been going into the drains and we have had several melting days since the last prediction in late January. We have also had very windy/wet days. Although I can understand the minimal impact of this scenario, I can't imagine it would hurt.

We have had well above average temps with melting and well less than average snowfall.... how could the outlook have gotten worse? I am sure there is a reason and that is why I am here looking for your expert help! Thanks

[cmichweather]

They address many of your questions here http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=64210&source=0

Basically the reason that the flood forecast was increased, was that even though our precip recently has been below average, they factored in the latest news of increased draw downs of upstream dams. Also almost nothing has entered the river from the recent warm weather. The river actually went down a bit, so all of this water is sitting in ditches, or still in the fields, the snowpack doesn't look as impressive but widespread 4-6" inch liquid water equivalent still is present in the southern valley.

Also this prediction is based on average weather patterns over the past 60 years, they basically run an ensemble of past weather scenarios and take the mean of that. If we are below average precip for the rest of the flood season then forecasts will decrease but if we see average to above average precip (which i think is pretty likely with a la nina and -pna pattern entering into late winter) We have a chance to have even higher numbers than what you are seeing. The mayor of Fargo may think he's a flood guru but just looking at the depth of the snow around town isn't an accurate prediction, region wide stream flows are at record highs, and we have so much water out there and more snow coming. If we stay dry I think we have a shot of going 38' but just normal precip of an inch or so in the next month is probably going to be 09 or 97 levels here.... and if we have a wet next 4 weeks things could be even worse.

Just my opinion i'm not a hydrologist so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.