bluewave Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The models are indicating a high wind threat developing during the early morning hours of Saturday across the area. A very strong LLJ moves overhead with good mixing in the CAA. The GFS is suggesting wind gust potential in the 50-60 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah upton mentions possible upgrade to high wind warning, this looks to be much bigger then past Monday's wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 winds look digusting tomorrow. but can someone tell me why im failing to see temps in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What do you guys think the highest gust we can see is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Good test for the new weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The potential is definitely there, moreso than in any event this season so far outside of the LI/CT areas that got the LLJ on 12/26. Mixing looks to be just about perfect, with steep lapse rates and plenty of sun during the daylight hours. The peak surface gradient and strongest LLJ seem to coincide well with the midday time period, during which mixing potential is at its greatest. I could definitely see warnings being issued by OKX and PHI sometime later today or tonight. I don't think we have had warnings in this area in a W or NW CAA event since Feb '09, so this looks to be a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah def gonna be big, could lose a lot of trees, ground really wet and soft from melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I don't see anything bigger than the standard wind events we see this time of year, and in most cases the actual winds end up weaker than forecast. Maybe a couple of 40 mph wind gusts at best around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Winds are really howling here in the Keweenaw. Been sustain winds of 45 mph with 60 mph gusts. Been snowing heavily off and on. I did go to work and the power blink many times, but never went off. The schools let out early and they don't do that very often here. It has been shaking the house pretty good today. Been under a blizzard warning since 11 am.There was even an 81 wind gust measured at Stannard Rock. Stannard Rock is a lighthouse out in Lake Superior 90 miles north of Marquette, MI. I heard that there is 35 foot waves out on the big lake. That would be 5 inches higher then my two and half story house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I don't see anything bigger than the standard wind events we see this time of year, and in most cases the actual winds end up weaker than forecast. Maybe a couple of 40 mph wind gusts at best around here. im thinking we see some >40mph gusts with this gradient setting up and other factors as discussed already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I don't see anything bigger than the standard wind events we see this time of year, and in most cases the actual winds end up weaker than forecast. Maybe a couple of 40 mph wind gusts at best around here. If you look at the saved public info statements from windstorms on Upton's archive page, you'll see this is not the case. Advisory events usually verify with plenty of gust reports meeting criteria and warning events, while rarer, usually verify as well. Also, this is a clearly looking like an above average event. Forecast wind speeds at the relevant levels of the atmosphere down to the surface are notably stronger than 'the standard' in not only our area, but also in much of the northeast and Mid Atlantic. Winds are really howling here in the Keweenaw. Been sustain winds of 45 mph with 60 mph gusts. Been snowing heavily off and on. I did go to work and the power blink many times, but never went off. The schools let out early and they don't do that very often here. It has been shaking the house pretty good today. Been under a blizzard warning since 11 am.There was even an 81 wind gust measured at Stannard Rock. Stannard Rock is a lighthouse out in Lake Superior 90 miles north of Marquette, MI. I heard that there is 35 foot waves out on the big lake. That would be 5 inches higher then my two and half story house. I would love to see a good Lake Superior storm, and plan on doing so someday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 The potential is definitely there, moreso than in any event this season so far outside of the LI/CT areas that got the LLJ on 12/26. Mixing looks to be just about perfect, with steep lapse rates and plenty of sun during the daylight hours. The peak surface gradient and strongest LLJ seem to coincide well with the midday time period, during which mixing potential is at its greatest. I could definitely see warnings being issued by OKX and PHI sometime later today or tonight. I don't think we have had warnings in this area in a W or NW CAA event since Feb '09, so this looks to be a significant event. The surface temps will probably be warmer than the model soundings are indicating which will help increase the mixing potential. The winds should ramp up pretty quickly between 12-15z as the surface temperatures begin rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The surface temps will probably be warmer than the model soundings are indicating which will help increase the mixing potential. The winds should ramp up pretty quickly between 12-15z as the surface temperatures begin rising. I wonder how warm it will be. Our NWS forecast has highs in the upper 30s for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I wonder how warm it will be. Our NWS forecast has highs in the upper 30s for us. I think we'll probably be in the 40's since the guidance has been running too cool. The GFS MOS gets JFK to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Winds are already picking up here...had a 32 mph gust recorded last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wind is firing up here now...52.7/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 52/8 17% RH last hour at DXR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The surface temps will probably be warmer than the model soundings are indicating which will help increase the mixing potential. The winds should ramp up pretty quickly between 12-15z as the surface temperatures begin rising. Good point; the downsloping flow will aid in this. With Mt. Holly having issued warnings, I think Upton will follow suit at some point before the morning. Both offices' AFDs indicate that there could be two periods of peak winds - first, one with the LLJ and strong mixing in the morning, then another with surface pressure rises later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 should be a very interesting day. I finally totally discounted the MAV MOS guidance. I think temps will be falling all morning, with the highs obviously occurring at midnight. At least the MET is catching on. Winds will be the big story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Real windy out there...sounds like a train going thru outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Highest wind gust since midnight, 39mph, expecting to see gusts of 55-60mph during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 SPC WRF has snow squalls coming in later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Highest gust so far today, 44mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The worst of the winds haven't even arrived yet and they have already woken me up multiple times. I'm still not used to living in the very old house I'm living in - the windows shake like crazy and you can hear the roar of the wind seconds before it arrives. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Highest gust, 47mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 SPC WRF has snow squalls coming in later today Snow squalls are here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Huge limbs down everywhere here in Morganville, NJ (Marlboro Township) Monmouth County. Even saw a good sized tree leaning against someone's house here in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Snowing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wind gusts around 60 mph reported at buoys in NY Harbor and western LI Sound: http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44022 http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=robn4 55 mph gust at Shinnecock Inlet on eastern LI: http://www.lishore.org/shinnecock/latest.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Snowing, lol. Awesome. So much for spring fever huh??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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