March

[Lookout]

I know they blow it in their wording in the "This Afternoon" forecast:

For Athens GA

This Afternoon: A chance of drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 53. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

But next week when they look back they will see they forecasted a high of 53 and at midnight last night it was probably around 49 or so so their verification is not that far off which in hind site makes their forecast look not all that bad but the reality of what was going on during the day of the forecast is WAY off.

Yep, but it's even worse than we thought. Their early morning forecast actually had a high here of 58, not 53. They dropped it to 53 with the mid morning update. Yesterday they were forecasting a high of 60 here I have no idea what reasoning they were using because it was painfully clear yesterday that we would not get anywhere close to the upper 50s here. To me it was clear we would probably not make it past the mid 40s at best and indeed the temp here is still only 43 (was stuck at 39 up until about 2 hours ago). Assuming I might rise another degree, it' a nice 14 degree bust on high temps here from their last night/early morning forecast and a 9 degree bust from the mid morning update..which it should have been painfully clear by then it would not be that warm.

I don't know why they have such a difficult time with forecasting temps in wedge situations. You would think by now they would learn that it almost always is going to be on the cold side. But nope..they keep on ignoring the obvious and always go too warm.

[MotoWeatherman]

Yep, but it's even worse than we thought. Their early morning forecast actually had a high here of 58, not 53. They dropped it to 53 with the mid morning update. Yesterday they were forecasting a high of 60 here I have no idea what reasoning they were using because it was painfully clear yesterday that we would not get anywhere close to the upper 50s here. To me it was clear we would probably not make it past the mid 40s at best and indeed the temp here is still only 43 (was stuck at 39 up until about 2 hours ago). Assuming I might rise another degree, it' a nice 14 degree bust on high temps here from their last night/early morning forecast and a 9 degree bust from the mid morning update..which it should have been painfully clear by then it would not be that warm.

I don't know why they have such a difficult time with forecasting temps in wedge situations. You would think by now they would learn that it almost always is going to be on the cold side. But nope..they keep on ignoring the obvious and always go too warm.

Never mind my previous comment. They just stunk it up all around. Looking forward to my 1-2" of rain tomorrow....maybe more.

[dsaur]

Man, what a great day to be outside working. It was in the low/mid 40's all day, after a high of 53 at midnight. Stout cad wind blowing all day. Loved it. A bit of drizzle and a stray light shower around noon. No bright, prickly sun to hurt the eyes. This is what March, April, May, and on... should be like T

[JQPublic]

6Z Fri gfs was even colder with -6 for the KATL coldest. Last 23 Goofies' KATL coldest: -6, -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 23: -2.

Fans of strong wedging and big wx changes should enjoy this pattern. Very impressive wedging here in SAV with only 50's, cloudy, and windy. It is like night and day compared to this past weekend's summerlike warmth. Summer to winter within a few days' timeframe!

Maybe I missed the thread, but what does all this mean?

[GaWx]

Maybe I missed the thread, but what does all this mean?

It started when that 2nd GFS run had a near record cold (for mid-March) -13C at 850 at KATL, which would have resulted in several very hard freezes. As warm as it had been, this would have been quite notable. Of course, I wasn't buying it and decided to follow subsequent runs, which were much warmer as expected. After that I decided to keep following the GFS runs because I thought that looking for a trend would be interesting and because there wasn't too much going on in this thread that was all that exciting. Using the BB's "goofy" nickname is appropriate here imo because of the big jumps from run to run.

The Fri 18Z GFS, by the way, has gone even warmer at +3 C for its coldest for KATL at 850. Last 25 Goofies' KATL coldest: +3, +1, -6, -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 25: -1.

[POWERSTROKE]

It will take more than that to reverse the drought. It's a good storm but we need many months of above normal rainfall to erase the drought.

don't need it all at once!!! Ground can only take so much at a time

[Solak]

Road trip to Hawaii???

Forecast for Mauna Kea

Tonight: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to between 25 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[FoothillsNC]

the NAM dropped my rains from 2" to .50" tonight. Its really adamant about the southern stream sharpening up and closing off as it goes up the Apps...even has wraparound snow in Tn, nw NC and eastern KY late Sunday. Hopefully a slightly more progressive option occurs. Looking at the water vapor, you can see the trough, pretty sharp in the southern Rockies. It would be quite a coup for it to be the outlier , and be right all along, but we'll see.

[jaxjagman]

the NAM dropped my rains from 2" to .50" tonight. Its really adamant about the southern stream sharpening up and closing off as it goes up the Apps...even has wraparound snow in Tn, nw NC and eastern KY late Sunday. Hopefully a slightly more progressive option occurs. Looking at the water vapor, you can see the trough, pretty sharp in the southern Rockies. It would be quite a coup for it to be the outlier , and be right all along, but we'll see.

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

[jburns]

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

We post about where we live for the most part. This is the 129th post in this thread. None of them are from AL and only three from TN. Last time I checked there is no ban on AL/TN memberships or posts. As to why there aren't more, you tell me. I don't live there. You do.

[downeastnc]

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

First off the SE board is mostly GA, SC, NC and you know why .........cause thats where most of the people posting in the SE thread live. We have several posters from east TN but very few from AL,MS or central TN and this is because most of them post over on Talkweather. If you want a better shot at seeing more localized discussion for your area I would check the Midwest/Central board they have more of the central/west TN, AL, MS folks posting over there I believe.

Foothills post was a IMBY look at the upcoming storm if you have been around and or took the time to read the threads you would know that his area is in a long term drought and the lack of good rain recently has really increased the severity of it. He is prolly pretty bummed that the models take his totals down as they could really use that 2" or the 4" your area is gonna get.

Try posting more and talking more about your backyard its not that no one cares its just nobody from that area really post in the SE thread.

[NavarreDon]

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

Sigh....Not this crap again. I don't understand why people get upset about stuff like this. As stated in the 2 posts above mine there are lots of reasons why W/C TN, AL, MS don't get alot of love in threads. People are not gonna post about areas that don't pertain to their weather. If you have an opinion step up and rep. your area. If not and you want to see something mentioned about "your" forecast try the NWS . I am not trying to be a jerk but, some of you people act like a 2 year old in need of a time out. This has been explained many times on this board. Demographics are gonna shape the posts on these threads. If you don't like it get more people from your area to post. Here are a couple links that might help you. Sorry for the rant.

http://www.americanw...n-demographics/

http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text

[DaculaWeather]

Makes us that came from Tennessee look bad. While I was born in Savannah, I grew up in Nashville so I apologize for my native TN friend Robert.

Raining pretty steady here this morning and already up to .16" since midnight. FFC is already saying mid-week is a Flash Flood Watch and severe weather, a very long AFD for them. http://www.daculaweather.com/afd_new.php

[strongwxnc]

.05 Overt night Robert

the NAM dropped my rains from 2" to .50" tonight. Its really adamant about the southern stream sharpening up and closing off as it goes up the Apps...even has wraparound snow in Tn, nw NC and eastern KY late Sunday. Hopefully a slightly more progressive option occurs. Looking at the water vapor, you can see the trough, pretty sharp in the southern Rockies. It would be quite a coup for it to be the outlier , and be right all along, but we'll see.

Thanks for the report hoss.

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

[burrel2]

I hope rainforest reports in this weekend from lake toxaway. He/she will probably get 5+ inches out of this setup.

[ncjoaquin]

Sigh....Not this crap again. I don't understand why people get upset about stuff like this. As stated in the 2 posts above mine there are lots of reasons why W/C TN, AL, MS don't get alot of love in threads. People are not gonna post about areas that don't pertain to their weather. If you have an opinion step up and rep. your area. If not and you want to see something mentioned about "your" forecast try the NWS . I am not trying to be a jerk but, some of you people act like a 2 year old in need a time out. This has been explained many times on this board. Demographics are gonna shape the posts on these threads. If you don't like it get more people from your area to post. Here are a couple links that might help you. Sorry for the rant.

http://www.americanw...n-demographics/

http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text

Agreed. He could start a thread about Al flood potential and then wait for the millions to respond. If we were the only 2 from NC on here, then most of the time, we would be the only ones talking about NC.

... and somewhat back on the topic, it is crazy how many times the Shelby/Upstate area has missed on the heavy precip over the last several years. I lived there for a while in my youth so I have a soft spot in my heart for that area. I still love Shelby when I drive through.

If there is any hope Robert, NWS sees the NAM as the outlier as you pointed out and are discounting it.

[FoothillsNC]

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

I posted plenty in this thread about the heavy rain in all of Tennessee and Alabama. You must have missed that. I was only commenting how now the NAM shifts further west robbing the Carolinas more of needed rain.

First off the SE board is mostly GA, SC, NC and you know why .........cause thats where most of the people posting in the SE thread live. We have several posters from east TN but very few from AL,MS or central TN and this is because most of them post over on Talkweather. If you want a better shot at seeing more localized discussion for your area I would check the Midwest/Central board they have more of the central/west TN, AL, MS folks posting over there I believe.

Foothills post was a IMBY look at the upcoming storm if you have been around and or took the time to read the threads you would know that his area is in a long term drought and the lack of good rain recently has really increased the severity of it. He is prolly pretty bummed that the models take his totals down as they could really use that 2" or the 4" your area is gonna get.

Try posting more and talking more about your backyard its not that no one cares its just nobody from that area really post in the SE thread.

Exactly, thank you.

[Lookout]

I wonder why this is called a SE board.The NAM is showing 4+" of rain for parts of the Valley and C/Alabama?This isn't dangerous?God i hope no one follows you people because this board has nothing to do with the SE and only the east coast.

I wish I had seen this post sooner because it would have been trashed the moment you posted it.

No need in actually trying to respond to such a truly stupid and ignorant post but I'm sure you are happy to know that everyone now knows what a moron you are.

[FoothillsNC]

Agreed. He could start a thread about Al flood potential and then wait for the millions to respond. If we were the only 2 from NC on here, then most of the time, we would be the only ones talking about NC.

... and somewhat back on the topic, it is crazy how many times the Shelby/Upstate area has missed on the heavy precip over the last several years. I lived there for a while in my youth so I have a soft spot in my heart for that area. I still love Shelby when I drive through.

If there is any hope Robert, NWS sees the NAM as the outlier as you pointed out and are discounting it.

Overall the differece aloft isn't too much , so this is going to favor an Apps heavy rain but I think most of the Southeast gets a good 1" from the band as it sweeps through. The models have a comma head and surface low develop late tonight /early Sunday over w. SC which would really pound n. GA to western NC and then that rotates up into VA, swinging a thin but decent line through the piedmont and eastern Carolinas. So its hard to argue with a blend of the GFS and NAM , I think a max like others have said, around sw NC and extreme N. GA region where the dynamics focus and the longer duration point to 4" or more in the best spots, and a 3" general there. Also much of Alabama is in nearly 3" with the big convection blob now forming. The good news for rain lovers is another front with a good gulf tap comes through just like this one almost , late Wedn/early Thursday and then another a few days later. The pattern looks lined up every few days for a quick moving front with a decent Gulf tap. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[Rainforrest]

I hope rainforest reports in this weekend from lake toxaway. He/she will probably get 5+ inches out of this setup.

.47 so far just been a good steady rain. i think think the southern escarpement should do well hoping for 4-5 inches

[NavarreDon]

Overall the differece aloft isn't too much , so this is going to favor an Apps heavy rain but I think most of the Southeast gets a good 1" from the band as it sweeps through. The models have a comma head and surface low develop late tonight /early Sunday over w. SC which would really pound n. GA to western NC and then that rotates up into VA, swinging a thin but decent line through the piedmont and eastern Carolinas. So its hard to argue with a blend of the GFS and NAM , I think a max like others have said, around sw NC and extreme N. GA region where the dynamics focus and the longer duration point to 4" or more in the best spots, and a 3" general there. Also much of Alabama is in nearly 3" with the big convection blob now forming. The good news for rain lovers is another front with a good gulf tap comes through just like this one almost , late Wedn/early Thursday and then another a few days later. The pattern looks lined up every few days for a quick moving front with a decent Gulf tap. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Sounds like some much needed rain for the Mnts. Robert. Weaverville seems to always find a way to under preform in the big soakers. Maybe this one will be different. I have had 4.48" thru my gauge so far this year. Would love to see this pattern with some colder temps. that would be fun!

[ncjoaquin]

. The good news for rain lovers is another front with a good gulf tap comes through just like this one almost , late Wedn/early Thursday and then another a few days later. The pattern looks lined up every few days for a quick moving front with a decent Gulf tap. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

You and me both. Any chance to avoid my dad worrying about his well and the rivers and streams drying up will be well received.

[rosie]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_small.gif

Colorful HPC map from Fri.

[Lookout]

Sounds like some much needed rain for the Mnts. Robert. Weaverville seems to always find a way to under preform in the big soakers. Maybe this one will be different. I have had 4.48" thru my gauge so far this year. Would love to see this pattern with some colder temps. that would be fun!

That sucks. I've had roughly double that but still makes it below normal..but not nearly as bad. (around 1.5 inches). Lakes and streams here though are in pretty good shape. It really looks like though you and the rest of the mountains are going to be the winners in this one. New nam/gfs look fantastic for you guys. So it looks like the ones who need it the most should get it.

[eyewall]

All I ask for is just enough instability to get something going tomorrow .

[FoothillsNC]

That sucks. I've had roughly double that but still makes it below normal..but not nearly as bad. (around 1.5 inches). Lakes and streams here though are in pretty good shape. It really looks like though you and the rest of the mountains are going to be the winners in this one. New nam/gfs look fantastic for you guys. So it looks like the ones who need it the most should get it.

For a while now this has looked really good for the Apps, and really a nice hit for many of us. The GFS and NAM have a surface low develop around ATL to AHN and begin an 850 low around that time too (tonight) and that duo rotates and strengthens as it goes across the western piedmont of NC and into central VA and up into eastern PA. By the time it arrives in Pa or Maryland, theres probably enough cold air and lift/moisture over the Apps for a decent snowstorm in central/W. PA/w MD/WVA, not to mention a quick transition in part of ne TN and w NC if theres enough moisture leftover. This track should nail the whole Apps chain with a much needed soaker, and models still put down the NC/GA/SC border region as the winners. Usually when they agree on that location as the max region, its a pretty big event, even bigger than shown, so I won't be surprised to see some 5" amounts come out of there somewhere. I'm happy the GFS has around 2" or more here, but one thing I worry about here or into central Carolinas is a quick dry slot if a comma head does form and wrap up nicely in the Apps by morning..sometimes that happens too quickly, which reduces totals significantly further east..

[Lookout]

All I ask for is just enough instability to get something going tomorrow .

That reminds me, I meant to post about the storms/wind I saw in gainesville monday. Wow it was something...had gusts to 50mph easy. Where I was located made it even funner. The rain was doing all sorts of crazy loops and twirls going around the house and a line of trees nearby. There was quite a bit of lightning but it was almost totally drowned out by the loudness of the wind. There were some reports of wind damage not that far away to the west. It was really awesome and I sure had missed that. I lucked out too because apparently there was not much wind at all here when the line went through.

Speaking of lucking out, you can see how lucky the athens area has been the last 180 days or so. This lucky streak has sort of made me forget about how dry the southeast has been overall though. NC and sc really needs some rain badly.

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

[Lookout]

For a while now this has looked really good for the Apps, and really a nice hit for many of us. The GFS and NAM have a surface low develop around ATL to AHN and begin an 850 low around that time too (tonight) and that duo rotates and strengthens as it goes across the western piedmont of NC and into central VA and up into eastern PA. By the time it arrives in Pa or Maryland, theres probably enough cold air and lift/moisture over the Apps for a decent snowstorm in central/W. PA/w MD/WVA, not to mention a quick transition in part of ne TN and w NC if theres enough moisture leftover. This track should nail the whole Apps chain with a much needed soaker, and models still put down the NC/GA/SC border region as the winners. Usually when they agree on that location as the max region, its a pretty big event, even bigger than shown, so I won't be surprised to see some 5" amounts come out of there somewhere. I'm happy the GFS has around 2" or more here, but one thing I worry about here or into central Carolinas is a quick dry slot if a comma head does form and wrap up nicely in the Apps by morning..sometimes that happens too quickly, which reduces totals significantly further east..

I haven't followed this nearly as closely as you have but I think you are right about those heavy amounts. Nam/gfs show some impressive southerly flow, around 40 to 50 knots from 900mb on up, which should provide for some good upslope enhancement over far northern ga/western nc . The radar looks fantastic to the west with a lot of heavy precip. In particular I'm watching that area of organized heavy activity around LA moving north.

I'm really rooting for you guys because I know it's been maddening to see in system after system, the precip evaporate as it heads into your region. For once it looks like the best lift and moisture will be over you guys instead of it being to your south without any worries of precip being cutoff by convection to the south. Alabama/Tn look like they are going to get hammered too.

[buckeyefan1]

For a while now this has looked really good for the Apps, and really a nice hit for many of us. The GFS and NAM have a surface low develop around ATL to AHN and begin an 850 low around that time too (tonight) and that duo rotates and strengthens as it goes across the western piedmont of NC and into central VA and up into eastern PA. By the time it arrives in Pa or Maryland, theres probably enough cold air and lift/moisture over the Apps for a decent snowstorm in central/W. PA/w MD/WVA, not to mention a quick transition in part of ne TN and w NC if theres enough moisture leftover. This track should nail the whole Apps chain with a much needed soaker, and models still put down the NC/GA/SC border region as the winners. Usually when they agree on that location as the max region, its a pretty big event, even bigger than shown, so I won't be surprised to see some 5" amounts come out of there somewhere. I'm happy the GFS has around 2" or more here, but one thing I worry about here or into central Carolinas is a quick dry slot if a comma head does form and wrap up nicely in the Apps by morning..sometimes that happens too quickly, which reduces totals significantly further east..

I'm worried about that too...lol GFS paints .50-.75 imby and I will welcome every drop

That reminds me, I meant to post about the storms/wind I saw in gainesville monday. Wow it was something...had gusts to 50mph easy. Where I was located made it even funner. The rain was doing all sorts of crazy loops and twirls going around the house and a line of trees nearby. There was quite a bit of lightning but it was almost totally drowned out by the loudness of the wind. There were some reports of wind damage not that far away to the west. It was really awesome and I sure had missed that. I lucked out too because apparently there was not much wind at all here when the line went through.

Speaking of lucking out, you can see how lucky the athens area has been the last 180 days or so. This lucky streak has sort of made me forget about how dry the southeast has been overall though. NC and sc really needs some rain badly.

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Yes we do

[NGTim]

wow, right now the entire northern half of GA is for the most part clear on radar.