Poimen Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 http://www.nc-climat...3&Submit=Submit This the storm? I wasn't alive yet, but it looks like it was fun. Yes, that is the storm he is talking about. I lived through it on the Northern Outer Banks. We lived in Duck at the time. The state map with accumulations is way off for the OBX, and I'm not sure why. I know we had somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-18" at our home in Duck. Good times, as we were truly snow bound in Duck for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yes, that is the storm he is talking about. I lived through it on the Northern Outer Banks. We lived in Duck at the time. The state map with accumulations is way off for the OBX, and I'm not sure why. I know we had somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-18" at our home in Duck. Good times, as we were truly snow bound in Duck for several days. Those maps are based on official reports received from authoriteis, weather observations, or the public, so unless you send in an accuraely measured total to the NWS, they have to estimate on the low side based on surroundung reports. I experienced this when I was 16 when the January 25, 2000 sorm occured. If you look at the map, Nash county ranged between 4-8 and 8-12 inches. I personally measured 16" myself in the SE corner of the county, 3 miles west of KRWI. But, at that time, RWI was not a 24-hr observation post, so what was reported was probably early in the event, when there was only about 6 inches on the ground. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?event_id=251&location_county=&StartYear=2000&page=1&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2011&EndMonth=01&EndDay=3%26Event%5B%5D%3DSnow&Submit=Submit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Those maps are based on official reports received from authoriteis, weather observations, or the public, so unless you send in an accuraely measured total to the NWS, they have to estimate on the low side based on surroundung reports. I experienced this when I was 16 when the January 25, 2000 sorm occured. If you look at the map, Nash county ranged between 4-8 and 8-12 inches. I personally measured 16" myself in the SE corner of the county, 3 miles west of KRWI. But, at that time, RWI was not a 24-hr observation post, so what was reported was probably early in the event, when there was only about 6 inches on the ground. http://www.nc-climat...w&Submit=Submit In 1980 the offical total for Greenville is 16", however we couldnt find anywhere that measured less than 24" and most places were closer to 30". There were drifts 5-6 ft high all over the place. We had 15-16" ( I had exactly 14" on the top of my car the next morning after the storm) in the Dec 3 2000 storm however the offical total is 8-10" for the area. They did do ok in the last storm Dec 16th 2010 the maps were much more accurate to what actually fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 if the 5h looks like the new NAM,a major rain event is coming for the Apps, western Carolinas and much of northern half of GA and Ala./much of TN. But right now there's still not enough clustering of how much the northern stream phases with the southern stream. The Canadian looks closer to the NAM but the GFS isn't as phased or as slow. May be the truth will lie in the middle, which would still be a good solid rain event , but not a nearly mega- rain event shown on the NAM or old ECMWF. We'll see what that model has later today. Usually slow moving north to south oriented full lat. troughs are big rain makers in the Apps and that usually translates across and up the East Coast, so we all can share in some good rains. There could be as much as 5" of rain in parts of the GA and sw NC /TN mtns from this event if its as slow and oriented like the NAM has it. Some of the old ECMWF runs had that as well, but thats on the high end. More than likely a good 3" to 4" max will be there (southeast upslope always helps there) with 2" possible in a huge region of the ATL to PIT NYC region, which would be a big help. Some SREF , Ukmet and NAM images. Just viewed the new Euro and it splits the trough, but the southern portion is so strong and hasa sfc low in the Upstate of SC so the net effect is still the same as the NAM, big rain event for the Apps. Esp. true on all models for northern GA mtns of NC and TN and spots in Alabama and MS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The ECMWF, which has been highly unreliable past 3 days for the past couple of months, has a cutoff over the Southeast next week. Added with its progged moisture for this weekend, it shows over 5" of qpf for northern GA , eTN, WNC. But its having trouble with the flow so I wouldn't jump on its solution until the GFS came around. Seems like more times than not lately, the ECMWF is off on its own a few days and eventually comes around to the GFS. Would be nice to have those kind of rain totals in the Southeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The 6Z Thu Goofy's coldest KATL 850 ended up being 9C warmer than the 0Z at +3C, which is tied for 2nd warmest of the last 19. The 0Z had been fourth coldest. So, this Goofy goofy pattern is somewhat predictable. The 6Z suggests that KATL might be able to get past period this without any freeze. Last 19 Goofies' KATL coldest at KATL: +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 19: -1. The 12Z Goofy has cooled back slightly to +1 for KATL's coldest at 850. Last 20 Goofies' KATL coldest: +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 20: -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Good disco Robert! Looks like a solid 2" here is a good bet to me, just hope I can get some crappie fishing in tomorrow before it starts pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I am hoping for a chase opportunity out of this on Sunday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 12Z Goofy has cooled back slightly to +1 for KATL's coldest at 850. Last 20 Goofies' KATL coldest: +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 20: -1. The 18Z Goofy has cooled a lot to -5 for KATL's coldest at 850. Last 21 Goofies' KATL coldest: -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 21: -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 18Z Goofy has cooled a lot to -5 for KATL's coldest at 850. Last 21 Goofies' KATL coldest: -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 21: -1. The extremes are still on the minus side, which is good. I wish this flip to colder would hurry up. I wouldn't mind another Easter snow, but a better, colder storm would be one in March. I know blocking is coming back, I just hate to have a cold, dank spring, if I can't get a blizzard again in March ...no, wait a minute.... no, never mind, that's good by me, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The extremes are still on the minus side, which is good. I wish this flip to colder would hurry up. I wouldn't mind another Easter snow, but a better, colder storm would be one in March. I know blocking is coming back, I just hate to have a cold, dank spring, if I can't get a blizzard again in March ...no, wait a minute.... no, never mind, that's good by me, lol. T Tony/folks, 0Z Fri gfs was also cold with -4 for the KATL coldest. Last 22 Goofies' KATL coldest: -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 21: -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 cold air damming is here. Temp is 39, wetbulb of 31 ! rain is developing in Ne GA and western SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Be nice if NAM holds, it could be a drought buster....atleast for Greensboro and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Tony/folks, 0Z Fri gfs was also cold with -4 for the KATL coldest. Last 22 Goofies' KATL coldest: -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 21: -2. 6Z Fri gfs was even colder with -6 for the KATL coldest. Last 23 Goofies' KATL coldest: -6, -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 23: -2. Fans of strong wedging and big wx changes should enjoy this pattern. Very impressive wedging here in SAV with only 50's, cloudy, and windy. It is like night and day compared to this past weekend's summerlike warmth. Summer to winter within a few days' timeframe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 38.3 and falling at 3 degrees/hour. Our high was suppose to be 58 but I have doubts about that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 38.3 and falling at 3 degrees/hour. Our high was suppose to be 58 but I have doubts about that now. 38? Wow....I'm at 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Had some light sleet falling for the past 30 minutes temp 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 38.3 and falling at 3 degrees/hour. Our high was suppose to be 58 but I have doubts about that now. As usual, ffc blows it with the wedge. Forecasted a high of 53 here yet it's 38 here also and there has been a steady light rain all morning. Temps won't budge with these conditions and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that. Feels quite cold too with a 10 to 15mph NE wind. Sad it takes until early march to finally get a decent wedge...even if it's not to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 As usual, ffc blows it with the wedge. Forecasted a high of 53 here yet it's 38 here also and there has been a steady light rain all morning. Temps won't budge with these conditions and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that. Feels quite cold too with a 10 to 15mph NE wind. Sad it takes until early march to finally get a decent wedge...even if it's not to freezing. Haven't really had time to keep up with things, but was the rain forecasted in advance. Looked at the radar and was surprised to see moderate to heavy showers near the SC/Ga border this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 As usual, ffc blows it with the wedge. Forecasted a high of 53 here yet it's 38 here also and there has been a steady light rain all morning. Temps won't budge with these conditions and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that. Feels quite cold too with a 10 to 15mph NE wind. Sad it takes until early march to finally get a decent wedge...even if it's not to freezing. I know they blow it in their wording in the "This Afternoon" forecast: For Athens GA This Afternoon: A chance of drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 53. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. But next week when they look back they will see they forecasted a high of 53 and at midnight last night it was probably around 49 or so so their verification is not that far off which in hind site makes their forecast look not all that bad but the reality of what was going on during the day of the forecast is WAY off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Be nice if NAM holds, it could be a drought buster....atleast for Greensboro and points west. It will take more than that to reverse the drought. It's a good storm but we need many months of above normal rainfall to erase the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 6Z Fri gfs was even colder with -6 for the KATL coldest. Last 23 Goofies' KATL coldest: -6, -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 23: -2. Fans of strong wedging and big wx changes should enjoy this pattern. Very impressive wedging here in SAV with only 50's, cloudy, and windy. It is like night and day compared to this past weekend's summerlike warmth. Summer to winter within a few days' timeframe! 12Z Fri gfs was much warmer with +1 for the KATL coldest. Last 24 Goofies' KATL coldest: +1, -6, -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 24: -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 But next week when they look back they will see they forecasted a high of 53 and at midnight last night it was probably around 49 or so so their verification is not that far off which in hind site makes their forecast look not all that bad but the reality of what was going on during the day of the forecast is WAY off. My high was at 12:26am, 49 degrees. That would STILL be 11 degrees off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 49 and windy here, no rain so far today. Forecast high is 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It is cold and rainy...35.6 imby with rain lol. As lookout said where was this wedge in feb when we could have been below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm looking at the METAR temps on my GRL3 radar, there's a pocket of 30's over Gwinnett, towards Athens, and up to Gainesville, but all around us are warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's 52 here with a pretty stiff wind from the ENE (8 gusting to 17). http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNCCANDL5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 As usual, ffc blows it with the wedge. Forecasted a high of 53 here yet it's 38 here also and there has been a steady light rain all morning. Temps won't budge with these conditions and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that. Feels quite cold too with a 10 to 15mph NE wind. Sad it takes until early march to finally get a decent wedge...even if it's not to freezing. The funny thing here in Columbus with their forecast high.... They had it at 62 at 4 AM when I wrote it down... HOWEVER... when the morning crew got it, they jumped it up to 69!!! !!! So far we have made it up to 56/57. I forecasted 60, which isn't terrible... considering the southwest portion of my viewing area reached mid 60s before the clouds moved in in force... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like we blew past our forecasted high temperature quite a bit. The expected high was 57 and now we're at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 My low for the day was 37.0 at 1:49 pm. Currently, I'm up to whatever you see below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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