nchighcountrywx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Avery County above 4000': Dusting of snow up in Avery this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 more fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 12z GFS is showing a deep freeze for us around March 25th. That seems to coincide well with the current cold weather in Japan. Any mets want to chime in on this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I'll be around too. And... while we're generally off topic, if anyone has a PWS and you send your data to Wunderground, I have a new script that will pull temps and rainfall from WU for my GRL3 METAR data. It also updates much quicker (10 minutes) than the NWS METAR stations. Send me your WU station number and general location, and I'll see about adding your station to the map. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNCASHEV18 Been a nice day for rain around here... at .49" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 1.23" with this system, 5.02" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 how about some moisture to go with the freeze? 12z GFS is showing a deep freeze for us around March 25th. That seems to coincide well with the current cold weather in Japan. Any mets want to chime in on this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 .98 for today over a foot total for the last three events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 .98 for today over a foot total for the last three events Meanwhile here, the airport picks up a mere .01"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 not looking like much for sure. The line has split as it came toward me, mostly its hugging the Apps now and another small batch coming from central to ne GA may get here but its continuously dissipating as it gets east into the GSP and CLT areas. Its outrunning its upper support which is heading north now. A trace here so far, just enough to cause a few green dots on the porch and truck. I think some areas between RDU and CAE won't get a single drop. After today, we'll have to wait until about March 24th for our next shot at rain. i cant believe how many times this seems to happen lately....i dont know that i remember a time where it was so consistent to have the rain disappear as it heads into the upstate. did it 'used' to do this and i was too young (and no internet) to remember, or is this pattern a fairly new thing (like mid 2000s or so?) ended up with 1.57" here and nothing one county to the east in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 i cant believe how many times this seems to happen lately....i dont know that i remember a time where it was so consistent to have the rain disappear as it heads into the upstate. did it 'used' to do this and i was too young (and no internet) to remember, or is this pattern a fairly new thing (like mid 2000s or so?) ended up with 1.57" here and nothing one county to the east in the upstate. ended up with 1.2" here, way more than was forecast (.25") and been bone chilling all day, high of 45° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 7 friggin inches of rain this month! Feast or famine as usual. And yes the GFS shows a frigid surge around the 25th and the Euro not too far from the same solution as far as temps go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 i cant believe how many times this seems to happen lately....i dont know that i remember a time where it was so consistent to have the rain disappear as it heads into the upstate. did it 'used' to do this and i was too young (and no internet) to remember, or is this pattern a fairly new thing (like mid 2000s or so?) ended up with 1.57" here and nothing one county to the east in the upstate. this was always supposed to happen, so its not a surprise or unexpected. The models the last couple days began to hone in on the Apps from about Asheville to western SC (Oconee) and points west as being the benefactors of this event, and northeast into VA. This is a lot easier to take than actually expecting rain, like a few events have done lately, and not really happening. I've had several flood watches here, and received less than 1" ..and even less than that to my east. The worst (for me) is yet to come though. When in the Summer, how the prevailing new nw flow really aims right for this region in a total dissipation zone. The last few Summers from around April/May til August is when it always manifests itself. And no, that didn't "used" to happen, atleast none of the records I viewed at GSP or my local data showed anything even close to it, going back to record keeping's inception circa late 1800's. I have to take what I can get in El Nino's and and the Winter Months, and the occasional tropical hit, otherwise this new paradigm is terrible for rain. Atleast to my east they will get into a rainier pattern of MCC activity and thunderstorm/Pop-up cells that merge and grow, usually they miss area though, or be extremely small and light and fleeting, though due to the nw flow that instigates the development just east of here. So far this event has dropped .12" ended up with 1.2" here, way more than was forecast (.25") and been bone chilling all day, high of 45° The models all had Oconee and points west as doing ok, atleast around .75", with a sharp cutoff east of there. The dynamics were forecast to pull north, sparing areas further east of very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 this was always supposed to happen, so its not a surprise or unexpected. The models the last couple days began to hone in on the Apps from about Asheville to western SC (Oconee) and points west as being the benefactors of this event, and northeast into VA. This is a lot easier to take than actually expecting rain, like a few events have done lately, and not really happening. I've had several flood watches here, and received less than 1" ..and even less than that to my east. The worst (for me) is yet to come though. When in the Summer, how the prevailing new nw flow really aims right for this region in a total dissipation zone. The last few Summers from around April/May til August is when it always manifests itself. And no, that didn't "used" to happen, atleast none of the records I viewed at GSP or my local data showed anything even close to it, going back to record keeping's inception circa late 1800's. I have to take what I can get in El Nino's and and the Winter Months, and the occasional tropical hit, otherwise this new paradigm is terrible for rain. Atleast to my east they will get into a rainier pattern of MCC activity and thunderstorm/Pop-up cells that merge and grow, usually they miss area though, or be extremely small and light and fleeting, though due to the nw flow that instigates the development just east of here. So far this event has dropped .12" The models all had Oconee and points west as doing ok, atleast around .75", with a sharp cutoff east of there. The dynamics were forecast to pull north, sparing areas further east of very much. Ahh..to be honest i was going off the 11 oclock local news last night, never looked at the models. I guess they were telling more for gsp area, my bad, was a late night and early morning. why can't these set ups ever happen during winter anymore when we were golden??:thumbsup:I'll take the rain though because we all know the dryness is coming or at least it's forecast to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Chattahoochee was at it's highest since the 2009 floods today. There was some water in the lowest part of the parking lot next to the river, that was actually part of the river.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 All my sprinkles yesterday added up to .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 this was always supposed to happen, so its not a surprise or unexpected. The models the last couple days began to hone in on the Apps from about Asheville to western SC (Oconee) and points west as being the benefactors of this event, and northeast into VA. This is a lot easier to take than actually expecting rain, like a few events have done lately, and not really happening. I've had several flood watches here, and received less than 1" ..and even less than that to my east. The worst (for me) is yet to come though. When in the Summer, how the prevailing new nw flow really aims right for this region in a total dissipation zone. The last few Summers from around April/May til August is when it always manifests itself. And no, that didn't "used" to happen, atleast none of the records I viewed at GSP or my local data showed anything even close to it, going back to record keeping's inception circa late 1800's. I have to take what I can get in El Nino's and and the Winter Months, and the occasional tropical hit, otherwise this new paradigm is terrible for rain. Atleast to my east they will get into a rainier pattern of MCC activity and thunderstorm/Pop-up cells that merge and grow, usually they miss area though, or be extremely small and light and fleeting, though due to the nw flow that instigates the development just east of here. So far this event has dropped .12" The models all had Oconee and points west as doing ok, atleast around .75", with a sharp cutoff east of there. The dynamics were forecast to pull north, sparing areas further east of very much. I think I would have lost my marbles by now if I was you. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Seriously, you take it a hell of a lot better than I could lol. I sincerely feel bad for you and am constantly rooting for you to get more because I know how I would feel and it sucks that someone who puts so much time and effort on here, and who makes this place better, keeps getting shafted. Before recently, I was just about the only spot in the interior southeast that had close to normal precip this winter and I would gladly give up some of my rain for you if I could. I just wish we knew what has caused this sudden tendency for rain to dry up by the time it reaches you, if it wasn't something that used to happen. Only thing I can think of is changes in the topography, such as the urban sprawl of atlanta. We really don't know the total consequences of urban sprawl with regard to downstream rainfall. Throw in the unique position of it in relation to the mountains and it's possible that we end up with this constant drying up of rainfall over the nc foothills/upstate. Meant to post this yesterday btw, but ended up with 0.80 with this past system. Some really good rates for a while and Better than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 After our recent slight risk fail (along with anemic rain amounts as compared to forecasts) and yesterday's lack of decent rain amounts I am looking forward to an actual severe weather event. One look to official forecasts however says nothing but boredom for the next week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Ended up with .15" here. Actually, we got a little more than I thought we would, but it's still not enough to do much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 this was always supposed to happen, so its not a surprise or unexpected. The models the last couple days began to hone in on the Apps from about Asheville to western SC (Oconee) and points west as being the benefactors of this event, and northeast into VA. This is a lot easier to take than actually expecting rain, like a few events have done lately, and not really happening. I've had several flood watches here, and received less than 1" ..and even less than that to my east. The worst (for me) is yet to come though. When in the Summer, how the prevailing new nw flow really aims right for this region in a total dissipation zone. The last few Summers from around April/May til August is when it always manifests itself. And no, that didn't "used" to happen, atleast none of the records I viewed at GSP or my local data showed anything even close to it, going back to record keeping's inception circa late 1800's. I have to take what I can get in El Nino's and and the Winter Months, and the occasional tropical hit, otherwise this new paradigm is terrible for rain. Atleast to my east they will get into a rainier pattern of MCC activity and thunderstorm/Pop-up cells that merge and grow, usually they miss area though, or be extremely small and light and fleeting, though due to the nw flow that instigates the development just east of here. So far this event has dropped .12" The models all had Oconee and points west as doing ok, atleast around .75", with a sharp cutoff east of there. The dynamics were forecast to pull north, sparing areas further east of very much. Your right about the the nw flow being dominate the last several summers, but I recall back in the 90's getting several good MCCs that came in from the north and northwest. Now back then I lived in eastern Mecklenburg Co so I don't know if you got in on those or not. One of these was one of the best lightning producers I can remember as it came in right around dark. It was a virtual wall of continuous lightning and it produced extremely heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Your right about the the nw flow being dominate the last several summers, but I recall back in the 90's getting several good MCCs that came in from the north and northwest. Now back then I lived in eastern Mecklenburg Co so I don't know if you got in on those or not. One of these was one of the best lightning producers I can remember as it came in right around dark. It was a virtual wall of continuous lightning and it produced extremely heavy rainfall. I'm not in NC but I remember a few summers ago I hiked to the summit of a mountain in Bartow county. The forecast that day was for partly cloudy and no chance of rain. I knew the flow was from the NW but they weather blog I read said that storms should be nonexistent. We got to the top of the mountain and heard a boom. I thought it must be construction or something. Another boom followed and we started looking around and found a black sky to the northwest. We ran the 2 miles back down to the cars and arrived right as the deluge came. That was my first lesson on NW flow MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 After our recent slight risk fail (along with anemic rain amounts as compared to forecasts) and yesterday's lack of decent rain amounts I am looking forward to an actual severe weather event. One look to official forecasts however says nothing but boredom for the next week at least. Yeah, I can't wait for some severe weather too...although often times it's hard to actually get a severe t-storm here thanks to atlanta killing any storms that move over it. But I'm really graving those strong late spring/summer afternoon t-storms too. I absolutely love those days where storms start firing by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 0.34" last night. 1.84" for the month, 5.18" for the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Yeah, I can't wait for some severe weather too...although often times it's hard to actually get a severe t-storm here thanks to atlanta killing any storms that move over it. But I'm really graving those strong late spring/summer afternoon t-storms too. I absolutely love those days where storms start firing by noon. I've had plenty of severe weather to deal with over here already! Feb 28th had a tornado touchdown in my DMA (Chambers County, Alabama) and then last week we had quite a bit of damage to our south in Fort Gaines. Looks like my 'bubble' is alive and well here in Georgia too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 After our recent slight risk fail (along with anemic rain amounts as compared to forecasts) and yesterday's lack of decent rain amounts I am looking forward to an actual severe weather event. One look to official forecasts however says nothing but boredom for the next week at least. Yep nothing to track or chase here but pollen which I fear is gonna really get going this weekend. Already seeing quite a bit and the pines look like they are getting ready to go and well we all know what happens after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 0.34" last night. 1.84" for the month, 5.18" for the year so far. This has to be a joke. I've had over 5" of rain this month alone. How could you only have 5" the entire year ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 This has to be a joke. I've had over 5" of rain this month alone. How could you only have 5" the entire year ?? Cause in this area we are in a severe drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I think I would have lost my marbles by now if I was you. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Seriously, you take it a hell of a lot better than I could lol. I sincerely feel bad for you and am constantly rooting for you to get more because I know how I would feel and it sucks that someone who puts so much time and effort on here, and who makes this place better, keeps getting shafted. Before recently, I was just about the only spot in the interior southeast that had close to normal precip this winter and I would gladly give up some of my rain for you if I could. I just wish we knew what has caused this sudden tendency for rain to dry up by the time it reaches you, if it wasn't something that used to happen. Only thing I can think of is changes in the topography, such as the urban sprawl of atlanta. We really don't know the total consequences of urban sprawl with regard to downstream rainfall. Throw in the unique position of it in relation to the mountains and it's possible that we end up with this constant drying up of rainfall over the nc foothills/upstate. Meant to post this yesterday btw, but ended up with 0.80 with this past system. Some really good rates for a while and Better than I thought it would be. Yeah, thats what my study led me to. Remember that big 30 page PDF I posted on Eastern re: leeside drought? I still have that and was brushing up on it recently. I can't think of much to add to it, but in essence its a combination of 1) the proximity of being downwind perfectly centered in the height field and flow in the warm convective season that hurts the most and 2) how the centers of the closed highs are usually perfectly centered to affect this area the hardest. I'm sure everybody has heard me moan about it year after year now, and of course one look at a radar in the Summer proves I'm not exaggerating. There's a new site I found recently near me, as I had always had a hunch that the worst of the worst actually lies from northern Spartanburg County to southern Cleveland/western Gaston/northern Cherokee (sc) and the ground obs comfirm that, as did all the acquifer well, river levels, etc. Check out Blacksburgweather.com if you want to see some really painful rain numbers , just to my south and probably the epicenter of the long term drought between Union County SC to around here. His yearly numbers are even slightly lower than mine, and thats pretty bad. I actually know its got to be right since each weather event I scrutinize obs carefully to see who gets what. The strange thing about last Summer was how GSP and CLT actually did, which was a little less indicative of this narrow region..turns out that several times in the NW flow, the slightest wind direction change caused low level convergence that was enough to develop a narrow line of storms and convection that hit around GSP to Gaffney, and you can also see that on the yearly and monthlies on the New Precipation estimates page..I remember last Summer well, thinking how lucky they actually got by getting hit with those..normally they're missed too. Just east of here toward I-77 and CLT area, the convection from nw to se or N to S, misses here and once again helps them in June and July especially..I 've noticed it many Summers in a row now, even in general drought Southeast conditions, the nw or westerly flow actually helps them out in those 2 months. Until we get rid of the new flow, and head back to a traditional southwest flow in the Summer months, I don't think much will be changing here. Who knows though, maybe this year we revert back to normal finally. Every time I cut down a tree around the county, I find the rings directly proportional to the drought years...it never fails, and I've cut several down in the county from the north end where its barely visible to around here, where its a no brainer...can trace back to 1999 in every single tree that has some age. Your right about the the nw flow being dominate the last several summers, but I recall back in the 90's getting several good MCCs that came in from the north and northwest. Now back then I lived in eastern Mecklenburg Co so I don't know if you got in on those or not. One of these was one of the best lightning producers I can remember as it came in right around dark. It was a virtual wall of continuous lightning and it produced extremely heavy rainfall. I remember the early and mid 90's being very wet in the Spring and Summer and recall many nights riding my bike and getting monsooned uptown. When I finally made it home at 2AM and flipped on the weather channel to view the radar, the MCC complexes were enormous, and they came from the nw also..so yes it has happened. The difference now is probably our outrageously high heights we get with the super heat domes that set up over the Apps or just either side of the them. That was never the case in the 90's northwest flow MCC regimes, nowadays, we really, really pile the heat ridges higher than ever...and that probably makes the difference. Yeah, I can't wait for some severe weather too...although often times it's hard to actually get a severe t-storm here thanks to atlanta killing any storms that move over it. But I'm really graving those strong late spring/summer afternoon t-storms too. I absolutely love those days where storms start firing by noon. those days are the best. I've had a few of them, when the day starts off in a really soupy environment you just know its going to a soaker of a day with extreme humidity and numerous showers. Miss them badly. 0.34" last night. 1.84" for the month, 5.18" for the year so far. pathetic. Hope things pick up for central and eastern NC soon. Yep nothing to track or chase here but pollen which I fear is gonna really get going this weekend. Already seeing quite a bit and the pines look like they are getting ready to go and well we all know what happens after that. Its about to happen here. The sprinkles yesterday made alot of green dots on my porch and truck, so I know its about to happen. The next few days of warm weather is really going to get it going. Last season was the worst with the pollen, you could see sheets of green powder blowing across the roads and in parkling lots...I had never seen it like that until last year. I bought some Allegra D yesterday, in prep. for whats to come. This has to be a joke. I've had over 5" of rain this month alone. How could you only have 5" the entire year ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 We did pretty good with rain here, just east of Charlotte. A heavy band developed around 8pm and it rained nicely for a good hour. I really feel bad for those just to the west of me. Like Foothills said places just east of the Mountains seem to do the worse. I am actually relocating to the Atlanta metro very soon and hope that things don't go down hill there also. I guess we will see. It's funny, and maybe Foothills can answer this, but it seems like during the summer some places around Cleveland County get the best of summer thunderstorms. Then they seem to weaken as they approach Union County NC. I don't know if its just me being my crazy self or not. But it always keeps my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 We did pretty good with rain here, just east of Charlotte. A heavy band developed around 8pm and it rained nicely for a good hour. I really feel bad for those just to the west of me. Like Foothills said places just east of the Mountains seem to do the worse. I am actually relocating to the Atlanta metro very soon and hope that things don't go down hill there also. I guess we will see. It's funny, and maybe Foothills can answer this, but it seems like during the summer some places around Cleveland County get the best of summer thunderstorms. Then they seem to weaken as they approach Union County NC. I don't know if its just me being my crazy self or not. But it always keeps my interest. Definitely not around here, although we rank very high in NC on twisters. The upper and western part of the county is in a very different topography, where a small but jagged chain of mountains really does some wild local things up there, but for the most part, storms die out if there heading toward highway 74, and in general coming off the Apps and Blue Ridge from Asheville you'll notice they die out, then maybe re-form just east or sout, or north, depending on their trajectory and other factors. Summer pop-up storms used to be very common, but thats in a traditional sw flow, which hasn't been in place in a few years. In fact, theres a max around here if you look at the 1971-2000 climo maps, and CLT was less. The reverse is true now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 What area of the metro are you moving to Ryan? We had our big drought in 2007 and another back in the 90s so dont bring that crap with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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