Tacoma Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Robert do your foresee any snow for the NC Mtns. around the 20th? Or just a cold rain? The ECMWF is a little closer to the GGEM on the next event. A trough digs into the Southeast and might close off. Meanwhile a strong 1032 high is in damming position and actually has 850 below zero across northern TENN and into much of NC for a period on the ECM, with moisture. So thats probably an extremely cold rain, maybe mix in some areas, I wouldn't call for snow this time of year but in the mtns and if time of day and we actually get those 850's with a southern GA low, then its "possible". Probably a cold rain for most with strong damming look, but thats shown mostly on the ECMWF other models are a little warmer, although the GGEM is just as wet. Also shows over 1" (some areas of SC, srn NC 1.75") of rain in most of GA and most of the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday, so we'll see if this can continue on future runs. Beyond that, it shows much warmer air finally arriving, with temps pushing 80 across the Southeast late next week. Typical March with it's wild swings. ++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Well, folks, it looks like -5C at 850 for KATL's coldest FTW. So, the model was 4C too warm on average through those 25 runs. Thanks Larry, very interesting and educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Robert do your foresee any snow for the NC Mtns. around the 20th? Or just a cold rain? Thats 9 days away, and the models can be off substantially. Right now looks very warm then. As for the Mon/Tuesday system, gonna have to have more time to see. The GGEM and ECMWF are close, but the GGEM is def. more agressive, both models are a good little rain event for the Carolinas, another one for TN and GA as well, but not as big as they're used to. I'd love to see that track and evolution verify on both models, with a slow moving weak cutoff, narrow but very solid rain wrapped shield plus some incoming from the Atlantic with the damming high. It would be a very cold rain, probably in the upper 30's during the day in NC, if the rain materialized like that on Tuesday and the high was still that close and not out to sea. But the truth might be that its much weaker system, we'll see if the future runs get rid of it. The NAM wants no part of it atleast the 12z was shearing it. The 18z may be doing something with it now though, haven't seen past 72 hours. Either way, I'd take another good little rain here, after a nice weekend.Perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Is it possible that KATL has actually had it's last freeze ? The last freeze was on February 12th, and no freezing temps in sight, at least at the airport. If there are no more freezes, I wonder if February 12th will be the earliest last freeze on record ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 thanks Robert for the info. about the Mtn snow. on the 20th Thats 9 days away, and the models can be off substantially. Right now looks very warm then. As for the Mon/Tuesday system, gonna have to have more time to see. The GGEM and ECMWF are close, but the GGEM is def. more agressive, both models are a good little rain event for the Carolinas, another one for TN and GA as well, but not as big as they're used to. I'd love to see that track and evolution verify on both models, with a slow moving weak cutoff, narrow but very solid rain wrapped shield plus some incoming from the Atlantic with the damming high. It would be a very cold rain, probably in the upper 30's during the day in NC, if the rain materialized like that on Tuesday and the high was still that close and not out to sea. But the truth might be that its much weaker system, we'll see if the future runs get rid of it. The NAM wants no part of it atleast the 12z was shearing it. The 18z may be doing something with it now though, haven't seen past 72 hours. Either way, I'd take another good little rain here, after a nice weekend.Perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 KATL probably has seen their last freeze Snowstorm2011. However, 2007 is still fresh in my memory. I remember planting my garden that March. It was in the mid 80s and I was sweating like July. There was no cold in sight at the time and we all know what happened. 24 degrees and snowshowers around easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 KATL probably has seen their last freeze Snowstorm2011. However, 2007 is still fresh in my memory. I remember planting my garden that March. It was in the mid 80s and I was sweating like July. There was no cold in sight at the time and we all know what happened. 24 degrees and snowshowers around easter. Isn't it a bit unusual for Atlanta to have it's last freeze in the 1st half of February ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 also unusual for asheville, nc to have last measurable snow at the end of January. Feb. was a flop. rather have snow every month than some at the beggining and middle and none at the end. March has been a flop other than this morning's dusting of snow. surely there is one more snow storm for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 gotta be one last snow for the mtns on the northwest side of a cold rain if we can get a low to go up the east coast out of the gulf and maybe on the northwest side get some accumulation plus we need a cold high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I dont pay much attention to KATL because of how inaccurate a picture it paints for the Atlanta area but I would say that its not unheard of for the last freeze to take place in early February. Thats what happens when you put the weather station around a bunch of concrete and asphalt in the middle of a huge heat island. For my area it would be very unusual for my last freeze to be that early. Im at 37 right now so I expect to be in the upper 20s tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 also unusual for asheville, nc to have last measurable snow at the end of January. Feb. was a flop. rather have snow every month than some at the beggining and middle and none at the end. March has been a flop other than this morning's dusting of snow. surely there is one more snow storm for the mtns. Its also unusual for asheville to have back to back 30 inch plus seasons too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 like I said I rather have the snow spread out all winter rather than in a couple of storms. Its also unusual for asheville to have back to back 30 inch plus seasons too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Its time for the anniversary of the storm that we shall not speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Well Folks - It was 32º IMBY this morning - heavy frost. Probably the last until November. Thanks ALL for a great winter --> keeping topics on topic and sharing your insights and knowledge! (And the seamless switch from Eastern!). Have a great summer! (I'm skipping spring thing, as that typically is the "missing season" here in Gainesville FL! - 'sposed ta be 80º starting tomorrow after 37º tonight, and into the foreseeable future 80º plus with night time temps going on up). Now on to thoughts of July and hiking the Art Loeb! Best Regards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Well Folks - It was 32º IMBY this morning - heavy frost. Probably the last until November. Thanks ALL for a great winter --> keeping topics on topic and sharing your insights and knowledge! (And the seamless switch from Eastern!). Have a great summer! (I'm skipping spring thing, as that typically is the "missing season" here in Gainesville FL! - 'sposed ta be 80º starting tomorrow after 37º tonight, and into the foreseeable future 80º plus with night time temps going on up). Now on to thoughts of July and hiking the Art Loeb! Best Regards! have a good spring and Summer. Hope it remains somewhat active in the Southeast instead of going into the doldrums...seems we're awfully quiet now. We always lose a lot of members around this time of year...not sure why considering how rare snow is really across most of the Southeast, and how active the Spring and Summers can be..I'd be posting just as much now as anytime in Dec and Jan, (but understand it was quite an unusual Winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 have a good spring and Summer. Hope it remains somewhat active in the Southeast instead of going into the doldrums...seems we're awfully quiet now. We always lose a lot of members around this time of year...not sure why considering how rare snow is really across most of the Southeast, and how active the Spring and Summers can be..I'd be posting just as much now as anytime in Dec and Jan, (but understand it was quite an unusual Winter). My thoughts exactly Robert. Despite no longer seeing widespread wintry weather across the Southeast, there is still plenty of action that can be brought about whether it is severe weather, major rainfall, even the threat of tropical weather should it raise warning flags in the future that is of the 2011 hurricane season. I will most definitely be one of the folks who will try to stay active on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 i need a cold air snow fix before spring, will be a long time until december for anymore snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 i need a cold air snow fix before spring, will be a long time until december for anymore snow. I think the GFS was showing a closed ridge in central Canada beyond 10 days. If that happens, you'll probably get your "cold air fix" . Each day that passes its harder to remain very cold in the day now, with longer days and shorter nights, and climo temps are edging up fast now. But we're no stranger to hard freezes in late Mar and early April. I'd be rooting against it though since they're so damaging that late in the season. The next couple of months are some of the most interesting with all the rapid changes though, from big wind events and severe outbreaks and storms with hail, to upper lows (with mtns snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 the event for the next few days over the TN Valley and Southeast to Midatlantic doesn't look like much for the central and eastern Carolinas. Once again, most of the good accum. rain will probably fall west of the Apps, with much lesser amounts once you go east of the Apps. especially true for SC and eastern NC. The models have varied wildly on this weak disturbance for days now, and now most agree it won't be that big a deal for most of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 I think the GFS was showing a closed ridge in central Canada beyond 10 days. If that happens, you'll probably get your "cold air fix" . Each day that passes its harder to remain very cold in the day now, with longer days and shorter nights, and climo temps are edging up fast now. But we're no stranger to hard freezes in late Mar and early April. I'd be rooting against it though since they're so damaging that late in the season. The next couple of months are some of the most interesting with all the rapid changes though, from big wind events and severe outbreaks and storms with hail, to upper lows (with mtns snow). I got to 31.3 the night before last, so that was some solace, but I'm looking forward to a hard freeze The plants have all summer, with it's million degree heat, to recover, and all I'll have is the memory of the last hard freeze... and the last was so long ago, I've already forgotten it, lol. I have to say I'm very surprised the blocking hasn't returned, as it can be so cyclical, but there is still time for a nice cold spring! Thanks for all your continued input, Robert....I'm not sure how I made it all those years before I was privy to the "Foothills" take on the weather Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 You NC folks have several big snows to remember but for us north GA people tonight is the only big one. It started sleeting at around 5 or 6 pm 18 years ago. We flipped on the floodlights after watching Family Matters and it was snowing to beat the band. We had several inches by 9pm. I went to bed as happy as a kid could be. I awoke to thunder in the middle of the night and got sad that it had turned to rain. I had never heard of thundersnow at that point so I didnt know that we were being slammed. When it was all over my uncle measured 18" that day. We didnt get out till the 15th and measured 14". We spent hours just trying to pack the snow down enough to sled. My grandfather used the tractor to plow a trail through the woods so the family could get together. The one thing I dont miss is the cold from the lack of power. I hope I live to see another storm like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 the event for the next few days over the TN Valley and Southeast to Midatlantic doesn't look like much for the central and eastern Carolinas. Once again, most of the good accum. rain will probably fall west of the Apps, with much lesser amounts once you go east of the Apps. especially true for SC and eastern NC. The models have varied wildly on this weak disturbance for days now, and now most agree it won't be that big a deal for most of the Carolinas. Cool and cloudy with some occasional sprinkles.......... I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 What a beautiful day! Did a small amount of mowing after the mower had the season kick-off oil change. Only thing that needed mowing was the weeds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 What a beautiful day! Did a small amount of mowing after the mower had the season kick-off oil change. Only thing that needed mowing was the weeds! I've already mowed my yard 3 times! And it's growing like crazy, Thanks to powerstroke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 You NC folks have several big snows to remember but for us north GA people tonight is the only big one. It started sleeting at around 5 or 6 pm 18 years ago. We flipped on the floodlights after watching Family Matters and it was snowing to beat the band. We had several inches by 9pm. I went to bed as happy as a kid could be. I awoke to thunder in the middle of the night and got sad that it had turned to rain. I had never heard of thundersnow at that point so I didnt know that we were being slammed. When it was all over my uncle measured 18" that day. We didnt get out till the 15th and measured 14". We spent hours just trying to pack the snow down enough to sled. My grandfather used the tractor to plow a trail through the woods so the family could get together. The one thing I dont miss is the cold from the lack of power. I hope I live to see another storm like that. I think the biggest snow here is around 16" officially, the Feb. 1969 one..probably about the same for GSP to just west of CLT...though for CLT proper the Feb 2004 was big in the southern end. Get just west, south, east and north of my location and I can think of much bigger events, like the central Ga to SC (1973?) one and of course the RDU and central piedmont Jan 2000, which was something like 20" or more...and the APPs to my west have had many big ones, so I've never seen a really big snow where I am and its not even in the records going back to the 1800's. There is one system that dropped around 17" if I recall in the early to mid 80's during March or April, but can't find the date, and it was localized. . I'd love to see a breakdown graphically of the biggest snow events in the Southeast, if anyone knows of a site. Cool and cloudy with some occasional sprinkles.......... I'll take it same here. Strange to see pretty good system drop so little precip on the charts. Atleast usually we have the fantasy of much more precip shown and get let down when reality hits, atleast this time it looks meager here. I'm doing ok in rain for now, but I know your area and northeastward into much of central and eastern NC are in dire straits or will be soon. Evaporation rates are increasing rapidly now with longer days, lower humidity, higher winds and stronger insolation, so the ground can really dry out quickly, and it will only get worse exponentially with time until serious rain hits. We need a strong cutoff to spin over central SC..normally one over GA would help you out, but lately the patterns aren't working as they should, reason I say it would need to placed smack over CAE to work, which would help out many east of 77 and toward 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 I've already mowed my yard 3 times! And it's growing like crazy, Thanks to powerstroke yeah but that is perennial rye you are mowing with 34% nitrogen on it. It will slow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 I've been watching much of the tsunami coverage in Japan. Looks pretty cold over there. Doesn't cold in that part of the world usually point to a trough over the east at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I've been watching much of the tsunami coverage in Japan. Looks pretty cold over there. Doesn't cold in that part of the world usually point to a trough over the east at some point? JB says so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 14, 2011 Author Share Posted March 14, 2011 You NC folks have several big snows to remember but for us north GA people tonight is the only big one. It started sleeting at around 5 or 6 pm 18 years ago. We flipped on the floodlights after watching Family Matters and it was snowing to beat the band. We had several inches by 9pm. I went to bed as happy as a kid could be. I awoke to thunder in the middle of the night and got sad that it had turned to rain. I had never heard of thundersnow at that point so I didnt know that we were being slammed. When it was all over my uncle measured 18" that day. We didnt get out till the 15th and measured 14". We spent hours just trying to pack the snow down enough to sled. My grandfather used the tractor to plow a trail through the woods so the family could get together. The one thing I dont miss is the cold from the lack of power. I hope I live to see another storm like that. I remember very well too. I remember how dark it was outside, it was snowing like crazy, probably the hardest I've ever seen it snow. Then the sky would light up with this eerie glow and then thunder. I got about 11" down here in Dacula with drifts to 2-3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I remember very well too. I remember how dark it was outside, it was snowing like crazy, probably the hardest I've ever seen it snow. Then the sky would light up with this eerie glow and then thunder. I got about 11" down here in Dacula with drifts to 2-3'. I got a whopping 4-5" from "Superstorm of 93". But I lived south of Atlanta at that time in Jonesboro. Wish I was in Dahlonega back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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