Gastonwxman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Keeping an eye on the heavier rain bands/storms as they roll through NE GA and NW SC. That looks to be the first to bring some real action here across southern NC and Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Keeping an eye on the heavier rain bands/storms as they roll through NE GA and NW SC. That looks to be the first to bring some real action here across southern NC and Upstate SC. no thunder in the stuff in ne ga (at least i havent heard any) but the rain is coming down in buckets with the heavy echos over head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 no thunder in the stuff in ne ga (at least i havent heard any) but the rain is coming down in buckets with the heavy echos over head No thunder that I've heard either....I'm closing in on 3 1/4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Its nice to see you guys out west sitting on the doorstep of another huge rain event. Ya'll are way overdo for a back to back dumping like this. How long has it been for you foothills to have 2 events in a few days that drops 1-3 inches of rain for you? The areas that have been screwed so many times over the last 2 years are really gonna cash in on this and thats good. Here in the east we really missed the bulk of the rain the other day. I only got .42 here after a forecast of .75 to 1.25 so it was a bust. Tomorrow looks like there could be some serious storms if we can manage a little instability and i'll plan on being out there chasing if I can get the chance. I think eastern NC will do very good from this b/c the cutoff occurs starting tomorrow, so round 2 will be probably from CLT and eastward, just missing me. Atleast theres a good chance of that happening, so mostly what I get will be from the band tonight and early tomorrow. The GFS has the low developing right over me in teh morning and usually that will feature a sharp cutoff to the south and west of it, witha blossoming shield of rain east and northeast, so most of NC east of here probably gets hit from that real good. Haven't seen any other models yet, but the GFS and NAM I think cut down on some totals here...still a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 No thunder here either. Mid 40s so its cool. I'm at work with no rain gauge but I think we have had 3 or 4 inches all ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Rainfall rates and winds are picking up dramatically here along the escarpment as that linear feature is crossing the Southern Apps as we speak. The headwaters of the Catawba are rising fairly quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Still lightening and thunder here, but just moderate showers. N. Ga. folks...I'd gladly give you all my thunder for just half of your rain. I'm still sitting at 3/4's of an inch after getting the 1/2 in 5 minutes a few hours ago. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Still lightening and thunder here, but just moderate showers. N. Ga. folks...I'd gladly give you all my thunder for just half of your rain. I'm still sitting at 3/4's of an inch after getting the 1/2 in 5 minutes a few hours ago. T You stole all of my snow in 2002 so I'm not giving you any of my rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Ok, so anyone (met) want to chime in on the nice looking cutoff shown on the Euro (and other modeling) for the 14th, or are we just playing these one at a time these days??? hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Ok, so anyone (met) want to chime in on the nice looking cutoff shown on the Euro (and other modeling) for the 14th, or are we just playing these one at a time these days??? hehe The Euro has been in a major slump, so I wouldn't count on it yet. The GGEm and GFS had a northern stream digging into the East which may generate some precip, but not the stream splitting like Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 For what it's worth....DT appears to be onboard with the Euro solution.... The Euro has been in a major slump, so I wouldn't count on it yet. The GGEm and GFS had a northern stream digging into the East which may generate some precip, but not the stream splitting like Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 For what it's worth....DT appears to be onboard with the Euro solution.... 18z GFS has a similar look too. He didn't seem too gung ho on any upper lows this season for the Apps region a couple weeks ago, and now we've had 2. Guess he changed his mind. Atleast its an active period and doesn't look too dull for too long for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 <br />That's not snow, it's a cold front.<br /><br /><br /><br /> Yes the cold front goes through with all that backlash precip. that image does not show total precip thats current in that timeframe. but thats gone so no need to discuss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18z GFS has a similar look too. He didn't seem too gung ho on any upper lows this season for the Apps region a couple weeks ago, and now we've had 2. Guess he changed his mind. Atleast its an active period and doesn't look too dull for too long for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Still lightening and thunder here, but just moderate showers. N. Ga. folks...I'd gladly give you all my thunder for just half of your rain. I'm still sitting at 3/4's of an inch after getting the 1/2 in 5 minutes a few hours ago. T No thunder here, but I do have big fat raindrops splattering the ground at the moment Maybe I'll get lucky and top the elusive 1/2" mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Looks like the line over the deep south stole some of the moisture from western NC. That is one of the most impressive bow echos I've seen in a long time. It's heading ESE through N Florida now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 as the strong s/w begins to cutoff in the early AM, a batch of moisture might explode over northern GA, eastern TN and western NC by daybreak, and that could lead to an active day for the Apps tomorrow. The NAM has quite a bit of moisture in eastern TN and KY, probably mostly snow after 7am. Upper lows are extremely tricky to forecast, and this one does look like it will become very energetic. I think it just might be a fun time tomorrow in the Apps and eastern TN even outside the mtns. possibly even into nw GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 as the strong s/w begins to cutoff in the early AM, a batch of moisture might explode over northern GA, eastern TN and western NC by daybreak, and that could lead to an active day for the Apps tomorrow. The NAM has quite a bit of moisture in eastern TN and KY, probably mostly snow after 7am. Upper lows are extremely tricky to forecast, and this one does look like it will become very energetic. I think it just might be a fun time tomorrow in the Apps and eastern TN even outside the mtns. possibly even into nw GA. Thanks, Foothills. This is the fifth straight month of a trace or more of snow at KTRI. I'm hoping for a trace or more in April as well. Six straight months w/ snow recorded at the airport would be impressive from my weather perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks, Foothills. This is the fifth straight month of a trace or more of snow at KTRI. I'm hoping for a trace or more in April as well. Six straight months w/ snow recorded at the airport would be impressive from my weather perspective. I have zero doubt atleast *some* snow will fall in eastern TN with this, and probably TRI. It may take until tomorrow evening before surface temps allow the flakes to meet the ground, but if enough evap.cooling can occur or the rates good enough during the day it may be snow at any point from noon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I have zero doubt atleast *some* snow will fall in eastern TN with this, and probably TRI. It may take until tomorrow evening before surface temps allow the flakes to meet the ground, but if enough evap.cooling can occur or the rates good enough during the day it may be snow at any point from noon or so. Evaporational Cooling? I'm guessing you mean dynamical cooling through melting snow aloft. I'm in agreement with you, since it looks like we will have a nice fetch of northwesterly flow behind the 850mb low, but it should only be pretty brief, as the 500mb trough continues to lift out fairly quickly. I'm thinking we will see more snowfall from the northwest flow event rather than any precipitation invigorated by the negative tilting of the trough. Folks further north up in Kentucky and West Virgina will likely get much more out of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Evaporational Cooling? I'm guessing you mean dynamical cooling through melting snow aloft. I'm in agreement with you, since it looks like we will have a nice fetch of northwesterly flow behind the 850mb low, but it should only be pretty brief, as the 500mb trough continues to lift out fairly quickly. I'm thinking we will see more snowfall from the northwest flow event rather than any precipitation invigorated by the negative tilting of the trough. Folks further north up in Kentucky and West Virgina will likely get much more out of it though. ooops thanks. After this event, the next one is still unclear. The 12Z GFS is a non event and doesnt' dig the next s/w, but the 84 hours NAM and the GGEM are . The GGEM is probably a little too agressive later on, but it was closer with this event at 5h than the GFS or ECMWF..so it will take a few days to see if another good rain event is coming. If it does, this one could have more cold air to work with on the northern shield for areas like Ky, ne TN and nw NC so it might be another situation where it has something other than plain rain for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I need a little dry weather Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I need a little dry weather Robert! I'd like it to dry up a few days as well..can't believe I said that, but there's some major yard work to do before I'm covered in weeds. We'll see what the Euro has in a few minutes...but the truth probably won't be known til tomorrow or Sat. on the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 You stole all of my snow in 2002 so I'm not giving you any of my rain. Not steal...never that...just accepted gratefully natures bounty...and not my fault she didn't have any left for points further north ,lol. Nice day today. Mostly cloudy with a nice cool wind making it feel colder that is was. I was hoping for colder, but mid 40's beats the weather we've been having. Saw some good games today, between bouts of work outside. Still looking for my hard freeze!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It looks like those runs of the GGEM closing off the 500mb low down into GA/SC was way too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Why,why, why!! couldn't one of these torrential rain events have been snow!!! Ok...rant over. I'm with whoever wants some dry wx for a while!! Cleaning off muddy paws everyday is the pits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I'd like it to dry up a few days as well..can't believe I said that, but there's some major yard work to do before I'm covered in weeds. We'll see what the Euro has in a few minutes...but the truth probably won't be known til tomorrow or Sat. on the next event. we need some dry weather we have alot of work to do and rain is really slowing us down, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 It started when that 2nd GFS run had a near record cold (for mid-March) -13C at 850 at KATL, which would have resulted in several very hard freezes. As warm as it had been, this would have been quite notable. Of course, I wasn't buying it and decided to follow subsequent runs, which were much warmer as expected. After that I decided to keep following the GFS runs because I thought that looking for a trend would be interesting and because there wasn't too much going on in this thread that was all that exciting. Using the BB's "goofy" nickname is appropriate here imo because of the big jumps from run to run. The Fri 18Z GFS, by the way, has gone even warmer at +3 C for its coldest for KATL at 850. Last 25 Goofies' KATL coldest: +3, +1, -6, -4, -5, +1, +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 25: -1. Well, folks, it looks like -5C at 850 for KATL's coldest FTW. So, the model was 4C too warm on average through those 25 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Looks like the next shot of precipitation will be during next week. Per the GGEM, we have another round of rain spreading across the SE as a surface low travels through the Carolinas at hr. 108 while what looks like a cut-off low develops and swings through TN, eventually getting into NC by hr. 120. By then, it really brings in the rain for a good chunk of the state. I know that we have just done this dance about getting a lot of rainfall, but after the disappointment of not getting as much rain as a lot of us had figured due to convection, one can't help but look onward to the next chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 The ECMWF is a little closer to the GGEM on the next event. A trough digs into the Southeast and might close off. Meanwhile a strong 1032 high is in damming position and actually has 850 below zero across northern TENN and into much of NC for a period on the ECM, with moisture. So thats probably an extremely cold rain, maybe mix in some areas, I wouldn't call for snow this time of year but in the mtns and if time of day and we actually get those 850's with a southern GA low, then its "possible". Probably a cold rain for most with strong damming look, but thats shown mostly on the ECMWF other models are a little warmer, although the GGEM is just as wet. Also shows over 1" (some areas of SC, srn NC 1.75") of rain in most of GA and most of the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday, so we'll see if this can continue on future runs. Beyond that, it shows much warmer air finally arriving, with temps pushing 80 across the Southeast late next week. Typical March with it's wild swings. ++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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