snowman22 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'd say if anyone, it would be areas along and just east of the Apps down to portions of northern and central GA (possibly central AL) as winners of this event. Sad that we don't have a setup allowing cold air to work with all of this. This would have been a widespread major winter storm for a good chunk of the SE otherwise but I'll take rain at this point. We do need this after all. Are you talking about Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Are you talking about Snow? What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The Gfs showed this 15days ago. lol where is my snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The Gfs showed this 15days ago. lol where is my snow That's not snow, it's a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 the plot thickens. The GFS has come in looking like GGEM NAM blend. Much more amplified and still has the max rain amount (probably not enough yet) in N. Ga to western Piedmont /foothills of NC and SC. This still looks like a phenomenal event, one of the most dynamic I've seen in quite some time. Some areas will get 3" of rain in 4 hours I think, which will instigate flooding on a pretty large scale. The snow will fall all the way to northern Alabama and GA Thrusday.And eastern TN/KY w. NC will get a few inches I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Per the 24 hr. totals from 0z GFS, some folks are going to get seriously hammered with precipitation if living in the extreme portions of SW NC, NW SC, and NE GA.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The GFS goes ballistic with the surface to 850 winds screaming into the western Carolinas and Ga initially and carries that on after 24 hours into the piedmont, much like the other models, For this model, which is usually more tame, especially moreso than the NAM which is notorious for overdoing 850 jet, its a serious sign in my opinion. A special, rare event looms for some areas I do believe between ATL and DAN just not sure exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 My sis, who is now in Savannah, has the choice between leaving on Wednesday (late AM to early PM) and leaving on Thursday AM to go to Atlanta. Does anyone here disagree that it would be a no-brainer to go on Thursday to avoid most of the nasty wx? Also, KATL won't get any sticking snow on Thursday, will they??? my sis would kill me if I send her home driving into the middle of a snowstorm! She's already ticked off about the last storm because it kept her in the house for five days and she's had enough snow for a long time. It looks like all of the precip. will be out of ATL by THU AM. Correct? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The RGEM won't back down, so either it will score the coup or go down with the ship. Closes off over the Southern Apps....actually west of there for a time. Meaning , wrap around snow for TN, GA and NC after the flood in the Apps and adjacent areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The RGEM won't back down, so either it will score the coup or go down with the ship. Closes off over the Southern Apps....actually west of there for a time. Meaning , wrap around snow for TN, GA and NC after the flood in the Apps and adjacent areas. How much wrap around would we be looking at, snow that is? Weather channels here aren't saying much about snow. A brief mention, after they talked about the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 How much wrap around would we be looking at, snow that is? Weather channels here aren't saying much about snow. A brief mention, after they talked about the heavy rain. For GA, its probably only worth a mention since its March, and snow anytime in March is an event, even if flurries, which this will be. And a midday even means even less, but further north into TN and NC mtns, a bigger deal with spots of accumulations. I'm sure some areas will top 6" in the favored areas, but even this late hour, not sure how the upper low evolves exactly. That will make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 For GA, its probably only worth a mention since its March, and snow anytime in March is an event, even if flurries, which this will be. And a midday even means even less, but further north into TN and NC mtns, a bigger deal with spots of accumulations. I'm sure some areas will top 6" in the favored areas, but even this late hour, not sure how the upper low evolves exactly. That will make a huge difference. I've been forecasting for Sioux City on the far Northwestern portion of Iowa in the wxchallenge, and the first low that was expected to steal part of the energy to prevent major development of the secondary low has really been a major let down for this area. My hunch is that this might allow more vorticity to be funneled into the secondary low that is forming along the front currently, and this is the main reason why we are seeing more moisture/ 850mb winds coming up in the most recent modeling. The major MCS currently over LA and MS will also produce a significant amount of latent heat that should help to enhance the baroclinic circulation for the secondary low. Thus it wouldn't surprise me to see things trend more amplified even as we get into the short term forecasting period. Even at this point, its looking like flooding rainfall for WNC and the upstate of SC, with a significant potential for an accumulating upslope snowfall even afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Flood Watch has been extended for portions of the Carolinas: Statement as of 3:36 AM EST on March 09, 2011 ... Flood Watch in effect from 7 am EST this morning through Thursday afternoon... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has expanded the * Flood Watch to include portions of North Carolina and upstate South Carolina... including the following areas... in North Carolina... Alexander... Cabarrus... Catawba... Cleveland... Davie... Gaston... Iredell... Lincoln... Mecklenburg and Rowan. In upstate South Carolina... Cherokee. * From 7 am EST this morning through Thursday afternoon * heavy rainfall will quickly saturate already moist soil... causing significant runoff into streams and creeks. * Streams and creeks across the western Piedmont will be the first to flood. After prolonged rainfall... main Stem rivers will be prone to flooding as well. And a little snip from the Hazardous Weather Outlook statement: ...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO WET SOIL FROM THE RAIN LAST WEEKEND...THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... That bit above is what startles me. With the impressive rainfall we've already seen previously, it won't take much this go around to flood some areas in a heartbeat. I'm willing to bet that the creeks and rivers are going to swell easily from the significantly heavier rainfall rates that do occur in spots. I know that in parts of north GA and extreme NW SC, they have seen a ton of rain recently so folks in those areas should definitely keep an eye on things outside if they live in a flood-prone location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 According to my GRL3 radar, some places in Alabama have had more than 5-6" of rain so far (see image below). Cell N8 is approaching 36000 feet now Current loop here http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 According to my GRL3 radar, some places in Alabama have had more than 5-6" of rain so far (see image below). Cell N8 is approaching 36000 feet now Current loop here http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_2.php That's exactly what I feared would happen. Places like AL have seen so much rain recently that piling on more like what this system's doing is going to worsen the flooding situation. I'd like for us to get a good bit of it up here in the Carolinas but not so much that we have to contend with major flooding. This only goes to show how impressive the storm is in its rainfall production especially when you have powerful dynamics to work with. We should see something of similar fashion occur further east soon once we get into the afternoon and evening period of today. http://gwxmanblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/extreme-soaking-event-in-store-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 6z RGEM has it closing off over the srn Apps and slowly going into the central Apps. This track would be a good one for wrap around snowfall, and re-developing rainfall tomorrow east of its track. The APPS would get clocked pretty good under some snow bands. esp. eastern KY, TN and w. NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 6z RGEM has it closing off over the srn Apps and slowly going into the central Apps. This track would be a good one for wrap around snowfall, and re-developing rainfall tomorrow east of its track. The APPS would get clocked pretty good under some snow bands. esp. eastern KY, TN and w. NC. I would imagine the 500 map looked similar back in 1998 with the big snow over the southern apps, except I think that low got trapped and really spun itself out, leading to huge snow totals. The latest RGEM looks similar to the GEM from a few days ago when it was the ONLY model closing it off............no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I would imagine the 500 map looked similar back in 1998 with the big snow over the southern apps, except I think that low got trapped and really spun itself out, leading to huge snow totals. The latest RGEM looks similar to the GEM from a few days ago when it was the ONLY model closing it off............no? Yes. The GGEM was the most consistent ,and so far accurate model on this. Its not quite the beast it once was but all things considered is much closer to whats going on than the GFS ECMWF for sure. The NAM has also been a close 2nd. The latest RUC looks almost identical to the last few runs of GGEM and RGEM, so it carries more weight. For the 1998 low that one was a lot stronger and more cutoff I think. Today's runs should show a lot clearer picture on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Just got back from the store where I was surprised to see 3 storm chasing vehicles headed south toward Savannah, then west toward Macon. It was nice chatting with them as I have seen them around a few times the past couple of years. Hopefully they will have a good chase I'm looking forward to some much needed rain and if I'm lucky, some house shaking thunder to go along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 the 12Z NAM closes off a 2 contour cutoff over western VA around hour 45-48. Perfect spot for significant to major snow in Apps. Also, temps are down there around -8. So a hard freeze is coming to the Southeast I think. Already I hit 27 twice with temps warmer than this, of course radiational cooling helps so winds will be a factor as usual this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 low level moisture usually gets east of the Apps in a situation like this, so I won't be surprised to see some sprinkles, maybe sleet or a few flakes in northern NC on Friday, east of the mountains. Going to be chilly and raw for sure, with -3 to -6 aloft. Plenty of wrap around snow showers for the mountains of TN and NC for a while as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Nasty...... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 848 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011 ALC003-097-091530- /O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110309T1530Z/ BALDWIN AL-MOBILE AL- 848 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MOBILE AND CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES... AT 844 AM CST.... THIS TORNADO WAS NEAR THEODORE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. A CITIZEN HAS NOW REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR THE DOG TRACK WITH VISIBLE DEBRIS SWIRLING AROUND IT. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MONTROSE...FAIRHOPE...DAPHNE AND HOUSTONVILLE AROUND 900 AM CST... BELFOREST AROUND 905 AM CST... SILVERHILL AND CLAY CITY AROUND 910 AM CST... ROBERTSDALE...ROSINTON AND LOXLEY AROUND 915 AM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Am wondering if the rain is going to keep training over the areas come later today, or is the backside of the rain that's coming through NW GA the end of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Extremely heavy rain here a bit ago- up to about 1" total. Only one distant rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 No rumbles of thunder here, but am sitting at 2 1/2" of rain so far, still heavy to moderate at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Got to love a good downpour. Stood on the porch and watched the gage go up 1/2 an inch in 5 minutes...then back to a light shower. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Its nice to see you guys out west sitting on the doorstep of another huge rain event. Ya'll are way overdo for a back to back dumping like this. How long has it been for you foothills to have 2 events in a few days that drops 1-3 inches of rain for you? The areas that have been screwed so many times over the last 2 years are really gonna cash in on this and thats good. Here in the east we really missed the bulk of the rain the other day. I only got .42 here after a forecast of .75 to 1.25 so it was a bust. Tomorrow looks like there could be some serious storms if we can manage a little instability and i'll plan on being out there chasing if I can get the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Got to love a good downpour. Stood on the porch and watched the gage go up 1/2 an inch in 5 minutes...then back to a light shower. T I'm glad I was able to convince my sis to wait til tomorrow to travel to ATL from SAV. Quite windy here in SAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'm glad I was able to convince my sis to wait til tomorrow to travel to ATL from SAV. Quite windy here in SAV. Good call. And the thing that amazes me is this was the first rain beyond some drizzle/very light showers I've gotten so far. Once again this whole thing has been north of Atl. loaded as most all have been for several years now. And there went some lightening...and now the thunder....though still just light showers falling at the moment. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Healthy looking storm on Sat for sure. LR Lends credence to the fact by the end of March The drought thats been developing all winter could possibly be erased. Not sure what the thinking is on April-September, but hopefully we can establish alot of troughiness on the east coast this summer and keep the faucet turned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.