NCBlizzard Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Already down to 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Already down to 35 I drove through your area today heading to Greenville and back. Lots of Bradford pear trees in full bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Timing looks like ass for the front on Thursday if you are looking for severe weather to chase. It looks to arrive in central NC around 12z.. Another 10 hours later or so would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 the 12z gem is wild. After a flood, it then closes off an upper low along the gulf coast and tracks it across central ga, then moves it north into western nc resulting in what is likely several inches of snow over eastern al/central and north ga/southern appalachians with 850mb temps to -3 and surface temps in the 30s. Eastern TN gets hit especially hard with 0.75 or more falling as snow. Needless to say this is an extreme solution that isn't supported by any of the other guidance but man oh man would it be wild if something like that happened. Wild is definitely the word for it! It prints out almost 10 inches of rain for the mountains and foothills of NC! This would be flooding of epic proportions if it came about. (For comparison, the 00Z NAM has 1.5-2 inches and the 18Z GFS has approximately 1 inch.) Then, on top of that, you have the snow for portions of AL, GA, TN, and NC. A truly epic scenario that can't possibly come to fruition. Can it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Robert do you see Asheville getting any snow Thursday or Thursday night, I've got something going on then and wandering about the roads on Friday morning around the Canton area just west of Asheville. probably will be snowshowers in the air later Thursday. The cold front means business and has good pva behind it and moisture, steep lapse rates, so at the very least I think snowshowers all over the mtns. Also Friday morning will feature black ice in a lot of spots with temps well below freezing even in the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I drove through your area today heading to Greenville and back. Lots of Bradford pear trees in full bloom. Found these Bradford pear trees on the North/South Carolina line today. A heavy frost earlier seemed to have no effect on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 After a low of 25 this morning, the ice ribbons returned, especially with all the moisture in the ground. It's already 30 degrees at 11 p.m. here at Otter Creek, north of Lake Lure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I love the dance of the ULL's this time of year! Makes improbable seem possible This year I'm expecting to see them playing the Master's in the snow, lol. See who's really tough. Finish this winter off with a shout. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Another run of the GGEM showing a slow moving, closed upper low...0z tracks it from Atlanta to Columbia into central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Some decent precipitation totals per the Canadian. The western half of NC gets in on the moderate-heavy rainfall during the 60 hr. period. Then it really explodes as it heads eastward during hr. 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Lol the GGEM is even more extreme at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 How bout a little more winter action ! Then again ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 dream on frost. ground to warm and roads to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 dream on frost. ground to warm and roads to accumulate If it snows hard enough, it will accumulate. I have had enough good April snows to know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Very cold again this morning. 25 at 7 a.m. Rutherfordton shows 36. Hard to believe the difference can be that great just 15 miles away. Ice and frost everywhere. Yesterday morning after sunrise, I noticed that the air was filled with sparkling flecks of ice. It was 25 degrees, with a layer of thin clouds very high overhead. I could only see them when the sun hit them, but they were quite beautiful. A first for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 If it snows hard enough, it will accumulate. I have had enough good April snows to know that. This is very true. I hope the Canadian is right so I can pull the sleds out this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I think the GGEm is off its rocker. However even the RGEM at 6z is still going for the for the cutoff. It looks too far west and amplified though, which makes the big difference. I'd think if its going to happen like that, the ECMWF and GFS would be showing it by now..most other models are further east before the cutoff happens. But now we're in a fast changing time of year and cutoffs are going to play havoc with the daily model runs....already are in the GFS, so be looking for wild swings run to run. Anything can still happen under cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Am I just behind the curve or has the new NWS modeling webpage been mentioned? From what I see so far I am loving it! Animations and 3 hour models.... I have not even navigated the entire site yet. Maybe I am just slow? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Am I just behind the curve or has the new NWS modeling webpage been mentioned? From what I see so far I am loving it! Animations and 3 hour models.... I have not even navigated the entire site yet. Maybe I am just slow? http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller I like the 3hour increment maps. This is the first I've heard anyone mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 yes snow will accumulate even in april so it can accumulate easily right now around asheville. dream on frost. ground to warm and roads to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Am I just behind the curve or has the new NWS modeling webpage been mentioned? From what I see so far I am loving it! Animations and 3 hour models.... I have not even navigated the entire site yet. Maybe I am just slow? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller I hate it. So sick of websites trying to get too fancy and loading up a page with javascripts and other non essential gibberish. More often than not all it will lead to is your browser crashing or running really slow. I'm not happy about it...only hope they will keep an old page somewhere so those of us who hate this type of thing won't have to suffer through it. Anywho, Got a kick out of this line this morning in ffc's discussion FOR TEMPS...FINALLY GOT IT RIGHT YESTERDAY AND BEAT ALL OF THE MODELS. Someone must have been in a good mood though because it was actually a good and long one. You can tell certain forecasters there are far more interested in severe weather than winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I hate it. So sick of websites trying to get too fancy and loading up a page with javascripts and other non essential gibberish. More often than not all it will lead to is your browser crashing or running really slow. I'm not happy about it...only hope they will keep an old page somewhere so those of us who hate this type of thing won't have to suffer through it. Anywho, Got a kick out of this line this morning in ffc's discussion FOR TEMPS...FINALLY GOT IT RIGHT YESTERDAY AND BEAT ALL OF THE MODELS. Someone must have been in a good mood though because it was actually a good and long one. You can tell certain forecasters there are far more interested in severe weather than winter weather. I'm with you on that. After seeing the new site I will probably create my own page that has the simple "static" links to the maps versus having to load loops all the time or just select a frame from a drop down list. The old site is quick and easier...IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I won't be surprised to see the precip start as a little bit of sleet in part of western NC and VA early tomorrow, with that big 1044 high (1048 for a time) on the NAM ridging down. By 36 hours, the NAM has the strong s/w becoming neg. tilt in western Miss. so that should really pile up the rain in northern GA, and middle to eastern TN, and a sfc. low develops around ATL AHN. The totals through 39 hours are over 2" in a large area, and even some 3" so a big event in the interior Southeast. Once again though, the track of the dynamics and the duration will mean less amounts the further east you go into the Carolinas, so the max areas are to the left of the sfc. track , ala, ms, tn, Ga and western CArolinas. The way the NAM shows this between .75 and 1.25" falls in just 3 hours along the AHN GSPCLT GSO to DAN corridor as the neg. tilt trough is nearly stationary as additional energy dives in, this holds major training in place across the piedmont and foothills of ne GA and the Carolinas to VA. Haven't seen past 48 hours, but the NAM nearly closes off at 5H over GA. Looks likea fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The NAM has a very strong 850 jet aimed at the western Carolinas between 36 dn 42 hours, which may help explain why it drops so much rain in a short period of time. Here's the 6 hour precip panel. Its extremely close to closing off at 5H somewhere near AVL or the Apps region but doesn't quite do it. Either way, a ton of dynamics shown on this run of the NAM, hopefully the GFS is similar instead of more progressive. These type of systems are fun to follow every bit as much as snow...since these dynamic storms in March can bring heavy rain, hail, severe wx, winds, extreme rain amounts, and snow for some. This run would switch to snow by around Thursday day break in TN and sw NC mtns and spread northeast over the rest of the Apps during the day. Thats based on this run of the NAM, don't know if its right. Either way, for the snow lovers in the Apps, enough cold and moisture at 850 will swing around and down into the Apps Thursday enough for snowshowers, possibly into GA and Alabama, as well as TN, NC. Also, we'll see if the GGEM and RGEM are going to change their tune soon from their mega storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Anywho, Got a kick out of this line this morning in ffc's discussion FOR TEMPS...FINALLY GOT IT RIGHT YESTERDAY AND BEAT ALL OF THE MODELS. Someone must have been in a good mood though because it was actually a good and long one. You can tell certain forecasters there are far more interested in severe weather than winter weather. I noticed that this morning too. It was nice to read a thorough discussion for once. The weenie in me wanted them to mention the GEM but that was wishful thinking. I liked that there was a personal touch to the discussion like you would get out of GSP of BMX. Nothing will be better than the "I should have been a farmer" line from GSP though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 i am certainly looking forward to some interesting wx - another couple inches of rain would be excellent! nearly 4" so far during the last week or so although hopefully the heaviest rain will not be when i have to be out and about driving around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 i am certainly looking forward to some interesting wx - another couple inches of rain would be excellent! nearly 4" so far during the last week or so although hopefully the heaviest rain will not be when i have to be out and about driving around lol you could be ground zero again atleast as far as heaviest rain accum. goes. No matter which model, they all have a max. rain in N to NE Ga and sw NC and spots in Alabama, much like last storm, with good reason too since the models all have the neg. tilt trough in a prime spot for the southern Apps region. As the first round of rain is sliding east, it re-builds over your region and if the NAM is right on the 850 winds then watch out for some serious flash flood issues in a very short time. Taken with the fact that area just experienced a major rain, this could get rivers and streams over their banks in a hurry. Throw in the high winds that almost always accompany Upper lows in March, and the prime time of midday partial clearing on Thursday over your area, that with steep lapse rates could yield you some flurries to go with the high winds. Wet soil, high winds, floods...what more could you ask for as an active weather lover. I'd be happy with just 2" of rain....almost made that with the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 i am certainly looking forward to some interesting wx - another couple inches of rain would be excellent! nearly 4" so far during the last week or so although hopefully the heaviest rain will not be when i have to be out and about driving around lol I ended up with 5 1/4" here in Tiger! Looks like it will be the same with this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 you could be ground zero again atleast as far as heaviest rain accum. goes. No matter which model, they all have a max. rain in N to NE Ga and sw NC and spots in Alabama, much like last storm, with good reason too since the models all have the neg. tilt trough in a prime spot for the southern Apps region. As the first round of rain is sliding east, it re-builds over your region and if the NAM is right on the 850 winds then watch out for some serious flash flood issues in a very short time. Taken with the fact that area just experienced a major rain, this could get rivers and streams over their banks in a hurry. Throw in the high winds that almost always accompany Upper lows in March, and the prime time of midday partial clearing on Thursday over your area, that with steep lapse rates could yield you some flurries to go with the high winds. Wet soil, high winds, floods...what more could you ask for as an active weather lover. I'd be happy with just 2" of rain....almost made that with the last event. Are we expected to have high winds too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Anywho, Got a kick out of this line this morning in ffc's discussion FOR TEMPS...FINALLY GOT IT RIGHT YESTERDAY AND BEAT ALL OF THE MODELS. Someone must have been in a good mood though because it was actually a good and long one. You can tell certain forecasters there are far more interested in severe weather than winter weather. I read that too and got a laugh. You can bet that all those met's are trying to "beat the system" and do better than the models, I know I would be. FFC has been getting better about more detailed AFD's lately, I like it. They also mentioned consulting the other areas around the FFC zone which is good too. A little coordination goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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