DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We're only 10 days away, time to start looking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Too early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Feb cancel I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just ready to look down the road. Only 10 days away and getting into the long range models range soon. I'm not done with winter yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just ready to look down the road. Only 10 days away and getting into the long range models range soon. I'm not done with winter yet! Well I think everyone is enjoying the early spring weather? But I think everyone is hoping for maybe one more storm to track and maybe another week of cold to finish off the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Feb cancel I guess? Yes February is FAILbruary this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro ensembles for the AO,.NAO and PNA are uniformly grim- NAO is negaitve now but headed up, AO positive and the PNA negative and will both will stay there. Early March looks hopeless for winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS right on que with thread. Ill take this as snow or cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 In like a lion? More like a kitten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 In like a lion? More like a kitten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 06z GFS hinting way out.... Late in the first week of March has looked interesting, something to continue to watch. It would be nice to have something track to end the winter with in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 06z GFS hinting way out.... Late in the first week of March has looked interesting, something to continue to watch. It would be nice to have something track to end the winter with in March. This probably would happen since ill be sitting in Lake Buena Vista, FL with a frozen lemonade in hand enjoying spring training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 06z GFS hinting way out.... Late in the first week of March has looked interesting, something to continue to watch. It would be nice to have something track to end the winter with in March. Just the GFS being in fantasy land. That will probably warm up within the next few days. Seems this might be an active severe weather season so I'm looking forward to that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just the GFS being in fantasy land. That will probably warm up within the next few days. Seems this might be an active severe weather season so I'm looking forward to that, Should have put a ****FWIW**** in front of my post. I agree, it's in fantasy land but at least it's there. I am hoping to get some last minute flurries to end the season though. Anything outside of flurries is bonus for me, plus I want to see the Fish jump in the fountain if measurable snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This is how it starts. The two good looking systems slated to come through and drop good rains in the Carolinas are now working their way north and west with each run. The one Friday and then the next one a few days later are both heading well west and northwest of the Apps with their best dynamics and the precip amounts are dropping substantially , esp in the lee of the Apps for the Bulk of the Carolinas and points east.. If it continues it will dwindle down to a complete non event which has happened numerous times just last Autumn and late the previous Spring, where the rain cutoff was N. GA/E TN/W NC. Hopefully GSP CLT RDU and ILM can get a quarter of an inch with these systems but my expectations are beginning to lower already. first event: second event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This is how it starts. The two good looking systems slated to come through and drop good rains in the Carolinas are now working their way north and west with each run. The one Friday and then the next one a few days later are both heading well west and northwest of the Apps with their best dynamics and the precip amounts are dropping substantially , esp in the lee of the Apps for the Bulk of the Carolinas and points east.. If it continues it will dwindle down to a complete non event which has happened numerous times just last Autumn and late the previous Spring, where the rain cutoff was N. GA/E TN/W NC. Hopefully GSP CLT RDU and ILM can get a quarter of an inch with these systems but my expectations are beginning to lower already. first event: second event: not good if that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This is how it starts. The two good looking systems slated to come through and drop good rains in the Carolinas are now working their way north and west with each run. The one Friday and then the next one a few days later are both heading well west and northwest of the Apps with their best dynamics and the precip amounts are dropping substantially , esp in the lee of the Apps for the Bulk of the Carolinas and points east.. If it continues it will dwindle down to a complete non event which has happened numerous times just last Autumn and late the previous Spring, where the rain cutoff was N. GA/E TN/W NC. Hopefully GSP CLT RDU and ILM can get a quarter of an inch with these systems but my expectations are beginning to lower already. first event: I'm just a few weeks out from 4 inches of rain, yet the flip to super dry has pulled it all out from the top. Out in the woods the leaves just crackle and there isn't any moisture left under them. I'm getting into ticks and chiggers already but other than getting mosquito bit when this heat first started, they haven't bother me. The blueberry buds are still hard to see, and the daffodils aren't too active yet. Dogwoods seem about right for the time of year. I don't see any great push to spring by the plants in the know. When the flip comes it might be a doozy, for a change. It was cooler this morning early, and that felt nice. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm just a few weeks out from 4 inches of rain, yet the flip to super dry has pulled it all out from the top. Out in the woods the leaves just crackle and there isn't any moisture left under them. I'm getting into ticks and chiggers already but other than getting mosquito bit when this heat first started, they haven't bother me. The blueberry buds are still hard to see, and the daffodils aren't too active yet. Dogwoods seem about right for the time of year. I don't see any great push to spring by the plants in the know. When the flip comes it might be a doozy, for a change. It was cooler this morning early, and that felt nice. T seems like every time I see a temp map in the mornings it is cooler SW of Atlanta than NE of Atlanta (at least in Gainesville, Dahlonega). The cold did feel nice this morning. While plowing the garden there was no dust, and my small pond is still at "full pool", so I guess the dryness is not too bad here yet. I know we are going to get more cool weather in March, but man it just feels like there is no way for it to happen now, for some reason. I guess because we have had such sustained cold, that 60s and 70s feel almost like summer. It is a testament to the Winter we have had. I have not had to make my pilgrimage to the Western N. Carolina mountains this winter, since we had so much snow, but I am sort of looking forward to getting a chance to chase a good storm in March. We just need some blocking, because its been really cold in the upper Midwest, but it just goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Pollen count is very high here now, 742, two weeks ago yesterday it was 1. 90-1499 is high, 1500 and up is extremely high. The records don't go back far but this is the earliest we've had counts this high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just to show how dry it has been here in the Piedmont, my Church's lawn caught on fire. We guess from a ciggarrette of someone driving by because only two people were there and they were inside, but it burnt about half the grass, and some of the bushes around our sign just before firefighters put it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I drove through the fire damage in Cartersville yesterday. It jumped a four lane highway and must have been a few hundred acres easy. Most of the fuel looked to have been dormant kudzu. Too bad it probably didnt kill the stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Just to show how dry it has been here in the Piedmont, my Church's lawn caught on fire. We guess from a ciggarrette of someone driving by because only two people were there and they were inside, but it burnt about half the grass, and some of the bushes around our sign just before firefighters put it out. Pretty dry alright. Take a look at what happened in Burlington earlier this week. http://thesoccerroom.com/?p=23177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I know it's several days away, but that damming high for late next week looks like it means business. Too bad this isn't January. Still might be a mix in some of our northern non-mountain counties early Friday morning if we can get any precip up over that wedge. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I know it's several days away, but that damming high for late next week looks like it means business. Too bad this isn't January. Still might be a mix in some of our northern non-mountain counties early Friday morning if we can get any precip up over that wedge. Thoughts? I'd sure love to see some cad like that actually be there when we get there. Been a long time. And better would be the gulf low that was showing some days back. I have some hope that situation can evolve into something nice by next Fri/Sat Running a gom low up into some strong cad would be a nice way to start March. No way this crap heat can go through all the way to Nov. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Not that this means diddly, since it likely means way less than diddly, but the 12Z Goofy **fwiw** has sig. to major snow for parts of the SE US 3/10-11. The NW burbs of ATL get several inches of snow. Chance of this verifying closely: 3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 At least it is showing two episodes of far less warm air The 12z brought that low next Sat. down into Ga. a good bit. That is a start...get it into Fla and we are in business! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 At least it is showing two episodes of far less warm air The 12z brought that low next Sat. down into Ga. a good bit. That is a start...get it into Fla and we are in business! T Tony/Folks, First of all, you all need to put your guns down as I'm only trying to relay objective data rather than just scare you/anger you and would prefer to survive and be able to provide messages in the future. So here goes: The 0Z SUN Goofy has major cold/hard freezes coming deep into the SE 3/11-14. Whereas I'm leaning to the intensty of cold in this Goofy solution being largely poppycock (near record cold -13C 850's in mid-March with 17F at the sfc at KATL and two days of highs of only 45 F and coldest 850 at -10C at SAV), the increased frequency of cold SE Goofy day 11-15 solutions admittedly has me a bit concerned that there will be a threat of hard freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Tony/Folks, The 0Z SUN Goofy has major cold/hard freezes coming deep into the SE 3/11-14. Whereas I'm leaning to the intensty of cold in this Goofy solution being largely poppycock (near record cold -13C 850's in mid-March with 17F at the sfc at KATL and two days of highs of only 45 F and coldest 850 at -10C at SAV), the increased frequency of cold SE Goofy day 11-15 solutions admittedly has me a bit concerned that there will be a threat of hard freezes. Whether it verifies or not, the 0z GFS continues to signal for cold around day 12 and onward. It's been doing that for a few days now. It will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition. It's hinting at a pattern change of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Whether it verifies or not, the 0z GFS continues to signal for cold around day 12 and onward. It's been doing that for a few days now. It will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition. It's hinting at a pattern change of sorts. The 0z Goofy giveth (-13c coldest 850 KATL in 11-15day period) and the 6z Goofy taketh away **fwiw** (only down to +1c coldest 850 KATL in 11-15day period). See you at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The ECMWF still has the cutoff days 7 - 10. The GFS is trying to get there but so far isn't in synch with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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