Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 RGEM looks odd in terms of the 850 temps. You would think the 850 mb temp 0 line would be farther north then that. Wouldn't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 HON is the jackpot according to the rgem thru 48 with over 2 inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Definitely noticed the southern shift here. Quite the QPF reduction. Don't worry NAM is trash anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 RGEM looks odd in terms of the 850 temps. You would think the 850 mb temp 0 line would be farther north then that. Wouldn't you think? Is the RGEM ever right? Not often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 RGEM did well in several storms here this winter. It's a good model if used right imo. I just thought it was kinda odd how it's pretty much inline with other models in terms of 850 mb temps, but yet the other models are way farther south. Just didn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Don't worry NAM is trash anyways It's solution is more than plausible. It's showing that #2 scenario I was talking about for us. Is the RGEM ever right? Not often. I disagree. Especially in comparison to the NAM in the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like a possible repeat of feb 5th NW trend with the second storm. Going to be a nowcast situation. The quicker the first wave the further north and more west the second storm. The difference here being the system isn't occluding so the dry slot won't be as aggressive or as far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 RGEM did well in several storms here this winter. It's a good model if used right imo. I just thought it was kinda odd how it's pretty much inline with other models in terms of 850 mb temps, but yet the other models are way farther south. Just didn't seem right. Agreed, it just looks goofy, with the placement of the low pressure..you would expect southern MN just to be torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is the RGEM ever right? Not often. To be honest the RGEM is as much "trash" (to me neither is trash) as the NAM. Sure it may be accurate with some storms but the majority of the time it has a NW and amplified bias. It almost never matches with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bleh, the NAM still has some impressive omega, but now it's placed just below the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The difference here being the system isn't occluding so the dry slot won't be as aggressive or as far north. I assume your talking about the first wave? Or was the feb 5th surprise low occluding which alowed the snow to make it further north into SE MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's solution is more than plausible. It's showing that #2 scenario I was talking about for us. Let's see what the GFS/EURO show tonight. 12z eueo gave us 0.7'' QPF a good 7 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z NAM BUFKIT gives Detroit 9-10" before the sleet parade begins. It back down considerably on the freezing rain (0.10" or less). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I tried to explain it earlier but i see it still went over most peoples heads with the model biases. Again the RGEM does great with a rising and or +NAO/AO but usually turns to crap when the AO/NAO is negative and or falling. Why again it did better then the rest with the blizzard as that pattern/rising and +positive NAO/AO played into it's bias. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Toronto Blizzard, where'd you get the EURO qpf from? What the 0z NAM is showing is pretty close to our worst case scenario, so I'm not worried. Frankly, a lot of these shifts seem to be more like model noise rather than fundamental changes in the prognostication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I tried to explain it earlier but i see it still went over most peoples heads with the model biases. Again the RGEM does great with a rising and or +NAO/AO but usually turns to crap when the AO/NAO is negative and or falling. Why again it did better then the rest with the blizzard as that pattern/rising and +positive NAO/AO played into it's bias. UGH +1 A lot of people just like to cling to how the "x" model did with the previous storm and forget about the overall biases it has or the different variables.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Depending on what method you use, the 0z NAM shows 12-16" of snow for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Depending on what method you use, the 0z NAM shows 12-16" of snow for ORD. Both waves combined im guessing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Both waves combined im guessing, right? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 +1 Seriously. This is why it did great in 07-08 ( king of nw trends/+nao/+ao ) and not so great last winter and earlier this winter with the blocking and -nao/-ao. It is one of the few models that has atleast remained a constant with it's known bias. Believe it or not that is why i actually do make sure i view it. Thus it has it's uses as baro would say. Just a matter of knowing the biases like any other model. Unfortunately the rest of them have been tinkered with etc via the upgrades ( Euro last Feb/ GFS this past summer/ NAM not long ago )and so the biases are not as apparent as they once were. They all ofcourse are prone to busting as well and thus why i say never write anything off either. If this thing enters the plains stronger or farther north then yeah the track east will be farther north as well. Till the system is in the plains that will remain a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 skilling in house rpm model 4-5 inches ORD 8-10 inches Waukegan 12 inches Kenosha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM throws down 3-6" for LAF with the second piece. Hilarious. And probably a short burst of mix with the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I assume your talking about the first wave? Or was the feb 5th surprise low occluding which alowed the snow to make it further north into SE MI? My bad....was thinking the "death storm/blizzard" was the 5th....but was before that....that's what I get for cutting back on my caffeine today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS gets it down to 992 MB at hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Gfs puts down .50+ qpf in Chicago before the flip to rain.. It had .25+ on the 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 how much for buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 992 LOW near DSM at hr 48. Stronger then 18z. Gonna be a great hit for SC WI I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Figures no little help at 0z... oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Figures no little help at 0z... oh well. Lol you get .75+ frozen precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS is going to stay the course relatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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