baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0Z NAM through 18 hours is much improved with the speed of the western trough and back inline with the remaining guidance. Nice to see it isn't phase shifted W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks a lot like the 18z gfs so far through hr 27. A bit warmer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not really farther south, just faster imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks like Heavy Snow-->ice here....not sure how much of each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks like Heavy Snow-->ice here....not sure how much of each s...WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 00z NAM is still a lot further North for us in MN, but the trend has slowly moved south the last 24 hours...Most offices have already threw out the NAM, GFS/Euro seem to be the best mix of models for this one. MPX has taken out the wording for freezing rain here in Mankato, we should fair well if everything can stay on track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 6-10" for us in the Southern Half of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I would go with the GFS/Euro as well. Both are in pretty good agreement with each other, and NAM has been awful latley. Although it's nice to see it heading in-line with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I would go with the GFS/Euro as well. Both are in pretty good agreement with each other, and NAM has been awful latley. Although it's nice to see it heading in-line with the other models. Yeah, but I don't see what's drastically different about the NAM anyways...at least no phase shift issue hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 6-10" for us in the Southern Half of Michigan. With this run Northern Oakland/Macomb will get 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With this run Northern Oakland/Macomb will get 10-12" If not more. The 850mb 0*C line is directly over my head, so this run is definitely colder versus the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 s...WOW! We are sitting right on top of the baroclinic line, 20 miles is going to make a difference.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hmmm...second wave more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hmmm...second wave more amplified Looks nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We are sitting right on top of the baroclinic line, 20 miles is going to make a difference.. For sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That 2nd Wave is looking real nice. Dont count this one out in SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That 2nd Wave is looking real nice. Dont count this one out in SEMI +20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Let's get this storm out of the way before we get too ahead of ourselves on storm #2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like a possible repeat of feb 5th NW trend with the second storm. Going to be a nowcast situation. The quicker the first wave the further north and more west the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM's deifnitely colder. This run just gives us plenty of sleet versus freeazing rain (a glazing) after the snow. That explains why there wasn't really a cut in the accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like a possible repeat of feb 5th NW trend with the second storm. Going to be a nowcast situation. The quicker the first wave the further north and more west the second storm. 2008? I've been wondering why that one hasn't shown up as an analog. Such a great storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Definitely noticed the southern shift here. Quite the QPF reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 2008? I've been wondering why that one hasn't shown up as an analog. Such a great storm... The first storm reminds me of dec 18 2008. Most models had it north and slowly trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z rgem coming in further n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 2008? I've been wondering why that one hasn't shown up as an analog. Such a great storm... I think he meant Feb 5, 2011. Although that was a literal LAST minute sneak north. Ahh...Feb 5th I was plodding around in 16" of snow...2 weeks later its torched away with another winter storm on the horizon. This is the La Nina pattern we expected all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hows madison looking still haven't called a plow guy....hoping i don't have to surgery was expensive enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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