snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah, 18z GEFS is probably too far south. I'm not trying to rain on your parade. But I think it's not only important what a model shows, but also how it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Lock in a ice storm you do that. During the New Years 2008 storm I believe it was me going to Home Depot earlier that day to stock up on ice melter and buy a brand new (very nice) shovel which caused that one to bust epicly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Seems the trend has switched from smug pictures of random boys to pictures of centerfolds in provocative poses. Cyclone77's takes the cake as most provocative pose. You should see River Card's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Dry Slot again SEMI ?? Any thoughts..and lets be honest here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Upper End Winter Weather Advisory for SEMI to come. or are we looking at a Winter Storm Warming? Seeing the possibility of .25 inches of ice an hour for M59 south looks to be very bad. This area never does well with ice storms. Throw in some winds and we have mass power outages and serious effects to commerce and public schools. I would assume that by tonight DTX will make a call on a WWA or WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm not trying to rain on your parade. But I think it's not only important what a model shows, but also how it gets there. I agree, my point was the fact that just about every 12z GFS individual ensembles disagrees with the 12z OP GFS at least for me simply throws up a red flag at the OP's solution. I would like to see the 00z runs to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Upper End Winter Weather Advisory for SEMI to come. or are we looking at a Winter Storm Warming? Seeing the possibility of .25 inches of ice an hour for M59 south looks to be very bad. This area never does well with ice storms. Throw in some winds and we have mass power outages and serious effects to commerce and public schools. I would assume that by tonight DTX will make a call on a WWA or WSW. They still do have ice storm warnings don't they? I think in the interim they go with a Winter Storm Watch due to the possibility of a south shift, but eventually go to any one of a WSW, WWA, or Ice Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Skilling Mix to heavy rain then lake enhanced snow on monday (few inches possible) 1.25 to 2 inches liquid equilivant across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I agree, my point was the fact that just about every 12z GFS individual ensembles disagrees with the 12z OP GFS at least for me simply throws up a red flag at the OP's solution. I would like to see the 00z runs to be sure. Could be, but the GEFS have a cold bias to begin with. I'd wait to see the 0z runs. If there's a common shift south, then you might be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 They still do have ice storm warnings don't they? I think in the interim they go with a Winter Storm Watch due to the possibility of a south shift, but eventually go to any one of a WSW, WWA, or Ice Storm Warning. Yes, but in this case they may stick with the Witner Storm Warning, since Detroit maysee at least moderate mixed in with the ice. This is all assuming we reach warning criteria anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 They still do have ice storm warnings don't they? I think in the interim they go with a Winter Storm Watch due to the possibility of a south shift, but eventually go to any one of a WSW, WWA, or Ice Storm Warning. The Southern shift possibility is a wild card. But the ice is more problematic than 3-5 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 RGEM always struggles when the AO dips into the -side and the NAO is neutral and especially heading negative as it is doing. Usually too warm and or to amped/too far nw/n. Yeah i don't think we will see much precip in the warm sector. I personally like a track close to/near i70 from KS on east. Probably north of i70 in MO/IL though near the IA/MO border and then again not far from i70 in IN/OH. Basically along/near the infamous 40n line. This is based on projected adjustments in modeling vs what we have as of 18z as they catch on the the NAO/AO. Usually when the NAO/AO goes south ( down to negative ) so do the storms. Not always the case but usually how it works. Why again the RGEM/Local HRW/RUC etc tend to struggle always when there is blocking/-ao/-nao. Same thing happens when those indices have been way up as we just observed and take a bit of a dive like we are seing. Models are usually a little slow to respond but do even up to the moment the storm arrives. This has been the only one constant in modeling i have seen anyways. Short of it. +AO/+NAO or a quick rise the rgem/ruc etc do well and usually models trend further north/nw. -ao/-nao or a quick drop and they dont and models have to play catch up and thus trend south. Perhaps but indices only get you so far now as the synoptic/dynamics of the storm begin to dominate over the time scale of the indices. Same principle as mesoscale phenomena wrt the large scale flow, etc. Soon a point comes where teleconnectors only mean so much. Either way that is a plausible scenario as well--but I do see an amped solution with stronger WAA and a powerful enough ejecting wave to initially overcome the suppression of the northern vortex. 18Z GFS is a good compromise for now--it certainly could go both ways. Intensity here means more though and it is interesting the farthest S solution (NAM) has the farthest N band of precip--while the NAM is prolly too far N with its precip band--that scenario is what can be expected with an amped up system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 There's definitely gonna be a band of very heavy snow accumulations. This storm looks more intense today than it has the past few days. I'd definitely be feeling good about things from MSP to Green Bay. Down here I expect a short period of rain, followed by dry slot/warmth. Hope we can pop a thunderstorm as the surface low passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 During the New Years 2008 storm I believe it was me going to Home Depot earlier that day to stock up on ice melter and buy a brand new (very nice) shovel which caused that one to bust epicly. if I don't have what i need for a snow storm way ahead of time I'm normally sh1t out of luck.. I couldn't find my ruler and the blizzard was looking more and more likely to happen and I was forced to go buy one - didn't like what they had but did like the yard stick so bought that.. Figured for sure I was toast. I'm way to superstitious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Upper End Winter Weather Advisory for SEMI to come. or are we looking at a Winter Storm Warming? Seeing the possibility of .25 inches of ice an hour for M59 south looks to be very bad. This area never does well with ice storms. Throw in some winds and we have mass power outages and serious effects to commerce and public schools. I would assume that by tonight DTX will make a call on a WWA or WSW. I dont know id say go warning....but keep in mind its not ALL ice, at least half is snow, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone got the QPF types/amounts for KDTW based off the 12z NAM or GFS. Still looking at a modest 2-4 inches followed by an awful ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Prinsburg can you post your 54 hr RGEM map? sorry no legend on this as i normally don't run this hour but it's the 54hr 18z rgem with 54hr total precip...buffalo ridge area has over 1.5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z hi-res WRF shows the 540 thicknesses pretty far to the north. Not surprising given the strength of the WAA with this potent storm. That's another reason I expect the best snows to be pretty far to the north. The 15z SREF looks like it has a pretty good handle on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Perhaps but indices only get you so far now as the synoptic/dynamics of the storm begin to dominate over the time scale of the indices. Same principle as mesoscale phenomena wrt the large scale flow, etc. Soon a point comes where teleconnectors only mean so much. Either way that is a plausible scenario as well--but I do see an amped solution with stronger WAA and a powerful enough ejecting wave to initially overcome the suppression of the northern vortex. 18Z GFS is a good compromise for now--it certainly could go both ways. Intensity here means more though and it is interesting the farthest S solution (NAM) has the farthest N band of precip--while the NAM is prolly too far N with its precip band--that scenario is what can be expected with an amped up system like this. Oh i know that. I am just citing what i have observed in modeling and how the models usually respond to those indices. Almost never fails. I agree with alot of your thoughts regarding the precip shield. Has the making of one of those systems where very little falls along the track of the surface low and most of it ends up in the cold sector a bit farther to the north. Been a while since we seen one of these. Basically heavy snow with a sharp cut off to the north to a zone of icing/perhaps heavy icing and or mixing to drizzle and scattered showers just south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone got the QPF types/amounts for KDTW based off the 12z NAM or GFS. Still looking at a modest 2-4 inches followed by an awful ice storm? NAM pretty much shows 0.5-0.6" qpf falling as snow before transitioning to freezing rain (0.4-0.5") and then ending as light snow. RIGHT NOW, both models verbatum show at least 0.5" qpf as snow before a change to ice...but I think 00z/06/12z runs will be a lot more important/interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone got the QPF types/amounts for KDTW based off the 12z NAM or GFS. Still looking at a modest 2-4 inches followed by an awful ice storm? 12z NAM showed 4-7" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and nearly a quarter inch of freezing rain (based on 0.67" snow, 0.12" sleet, the rest is freezing rain for a total of 1.15"),. 12z GFS showed 3-6" of snow (0.35"), and 0.40" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Bow, what you thinking up this way? BTW, you catch anything ice-fishing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z hi-res WRF shows the 540 thicknesses pretty far to the north. Not surprising given the strength of the WAA with this potent storm. That's another reason I expect the best snows to be pretty far to the north. The 15z SREF looks like it has a pretty good handle on it as well. 540 line isn't going to be the snow/rain line with this one... Also check out the Lsx wrf and the Iwx ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bow, what you thinking up this way? BTW, you catch anything ice-fishing? I only looked at the 18z gfs so far but looking at that you look to be in the bulls eye strip of heavy snow. See what tonight shows.. wouldn't take all that much to add more of a mixed bag in to your forecast. I'd guess your good for at least 3-6" worst case scenario ATM. 7 guys and 21 tip ups out on wind lake.. with the nasty wind.. Only 5 northern and 3 bass from 8am until 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif Heaviest would be just north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 21z sref hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Anyone got the QPF types/amounts for KDTW based off the 12z NAM or GFS. Still looking at a modest 2-4 inches followed by an awful ice storm? Just pushed out 00Z SmartModel output. Looking at DTW looking at 4.7" snow accumulation and then giving indications of .6" of Ice. Going to be a mess up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 21z sref hr 48 3z north, 9z south, 15z north, 21z south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 3z north, 9z south, 15z north, 21z south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 3z north, 9z south, 15z north, 21z south And who said understanding models was confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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