Stebo Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah I totally agree....and any convection if it occurs will only exacerbate the situation....I should have a fun shift though....and a "fun ride" home for me and in for stebo........ I'll take 10" of snow over any ice. I can at least get some traction in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 First column is 2M temps and the second is 850mb. Nice thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS has 1.5 QPF here of all snow with 2M temps never getting above 30 and 850 temps are -2 or lower. Could be the biggest snowstorm of the year in C. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'll take 10" of snow over any ice. I can at least get some traction in snow. BINGO!!! That's why I hate it when snow settles for too long without a fresh dumping and partially why I hate ice storms too. I'm don't think many people even remember or know how to drive in an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 what are your thoughts on track? I think a track ejecting out of CO along the NE/KS border than tracking E-NE into the central/southern third of IA then mostly E after that as the low begins to interact more with the vortex. I do think the GFS precip shield is not far enough N though--intense systems almost always have a larger dryslot and farther displaced precip band from the main low. I am going heavy on the SREF mean minus the eta members (see Prinsburgs maps) and the high res wrf runs. We all remember what happened with the northern plains blizzard and the Groundhog Blizzard in terms of the dryslot/precip shield. This storm may not be as wound up--but it is very intense and will have some of the same results. I am going with the more amped guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 South of the 12z GEFS or south of the OP? Nevermind, south on both accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS has 1.5 QPF here of all snow with 2M temps never getting above 30 and 850 temps are -2 or lower. Could be the biggest snowstorm of the year in C. WI. Yeah, that would probably approach 18 inches if it verified! It is going to be an interesting day and a half that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I think a track ejecting out of CO along the NE/KS border than tracking E-NE into the central/southern third of IA then mostly E after that as the low begins to interact more with the vortex. I do think the GFS precip shield is not far enough N though--intense systems almost always have a larger dryslot and farther displaced precip band from the main low. I am going heavy on the SREF mean minus the eta members (see Prinsburgs maps) and the high res wrf runs. We all remember what happened with the northern plains blizzard and the Groundhog Blizzard in terms of the dryslot/precip shield. This storm may not be as wound up--but it is very intense and will have some of the same results. I am going with the more amped guidance. So who do you think the dry slot will affect the most at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 So who do you think the dry slot will affect the most at this point? MOstly people on the edge haha--these dryslots always intrude farther N than progged. Good news here is most people on the edge will also be on the warm side of the precip--so not too many will be hurt in terms of snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Prinsburg can you post your 54 hr RGEM map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 MOstly people on the edge haha--these dryslots always intrude farther N than progged. Good news here is most people on the edge will also be on the warm side of the precip--so not too many will be hurt in terms of snow potential. I remember in the December powerhouse we were just into the rain part of the storm most of the time but teetering on the borderline between rain and sleet/freezing rain, and the dry slot came within miles of affecting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Cobb output came in with .84 total of FZRA for ord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW, nearly all the 12z GFS individual ensemble members (except maybe one or two) were further south than the 12z OP GFS. Said members would support all snow for this area at least. So yeah, that would explain it's southward shift on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This doesnt look right to me http://coolwx.com/cg...1818&field=prec any expert comments?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Cobb output came in with .84 total of FZRA for ord... if that happened. How long would the city be shut down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Would be .19 QPF frozen precip (freezing rain/sleet etc) and the rest of the QPF would be snow I would think. Talking about MKE btw. Not falling for it. But ill be glued to the models tonight. This reminds me of a storm on a sunday I think it was, I dunno, maybe 4 or 5 yrs ago.. We went on a little drive at the tail end (watching the news it was ripping snow north around 8am) of the storm and we left mke here on the south side with a inch or 2 maybe of slop I can't remember. It was crazy, went about 2 miles west and there was already a noticeable difference in the increased amount of snow than we got... It kind of stayed that way until we got to the zoo interchange.. Once going north on 41 it looked like they had about 4-5" I dunno and the roads were just sloppy.. and precip mainly shut off cept some drizzle.. Heading north just a few more miles well all of a sudden it just unleashes freezing rain and the roads becomes an instant skating rink with at least 1/8" of ice and traffic is all backed up.. Make it through that and get about 3 or so miles north and its big fat flakes falling but nothing real heavy and roads back to just slushy snow covered.. Looked like north of sliver spring drive they had around 6" maybe lil more. Make it up to where they showed the snow ripping up near germantown and west bend and they had like a foot. I can see this sorta gradient going down again around here. Still time for minor track tweaks north or south but I'd definitely rather have at least suckvilles latitude north.. Never underestimate the power of a last second tick north track and waa FTL. What a miserable day weather wise ice fishing, but the company, beer and food always makes it right. Wasn't but one good day for fishing during this fooking torch without wind and we didn't take advantage of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This doesnt look right to me http://coolwx.com/cg...1818&field=prec any expert comments?? That is 180 hr total.. Includes some from the system after this one later in thew week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 That is 180 hr total.. Includes some from the system after this one later in thew week... I get that but thought that at least half of this weekends storm was going to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Dry Slot again SEMI ?? Any thoughts..and lets be honest here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I get that but thought that at least half of this weekends storm was going to be rain. Well with the latest GFS having so much freezing rain at ORD that would cut down on the rain amounts. It sounds like an outlier though b/c with ORD getting so much freezing rain I would have to guess MKE is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW, nearly all the 12z GFS individual ensemble members (except maybe one or two) were further south than the 12z OP GFS. Said members would support all snow for this area at least. So yeah, that would explain it's southward shift on the 18z run. 18z GEFS mean is south because P003-006 are ridiculously suppressed. For instance, P006 dives the low SE from Nebraska to Tennessee. I mean, that's a pretty radical solution, and if it's meteorologically unsound, I think you'd have to discount the entire mean because of the contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I better line up a snowblower... Maybe i'll go buy one at Menards, they had a bunch on clearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GEFS mean is south because P003-006 are ridiculously suppressed. For instance, P006 dives the low SE from Nebraska to Tennessee. I mean, that's a pretty radical solution, and if it's not meteorologically unsound, I think you'd have to discount the entire mean because of the contamination. Yeah, 18z GEFS is probably too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Not falling for it. But ill be glued to the models tonight. This reminds me of a storm on a sunday I think it was, I dunno, maybe 4 or 5 yrs ago.. We went on a little drive at the tail end (watching the news it was ripping snow north around 8am) of the storm and we left mke here on the south side with a inch or 2 maybe of slop I can't remember. It was crazy, went about 2 miles west and there was already a noticeable difference in the increased amount of snow than we got... It kind of stayed that way until we got to the zoo interchange.. Once going north on 41 it looked like they had about 4-5" I dunno and the roads were just sloppy.. and precip mainly shut off cept some drizzle.. Heading north just a few more miles well all of a sudden it just unleashes freezing rain and the roads becomes an instant skating rink with at least 1/8" of ice and traffic is all backed up.. Make it through that and get about 3 or so miles north and its big fat flakes falling but nothing real heavy and roads back to just slushy snow covered.. Looked like north of sliver spring drive they had around 6" maybe lil more. Make it up to where they showed the snow ripping up near germantown and west bend and they had like a foot. I can see this sorta gradient going down again around here. Still time for minor track tweaks north or south but I'd definitely rather have at least suckvilles latitude north.. Never underestimate the power of a last second tick north track and waa FTL. What a miserable day weather wise ice fishing, but the company, beer and food always makes it right. Wasn't but one good day for fishing during this fooking torch without wind and we didn't take advantage of it. I could see that happening again, although I think if Fon du Lac, Sheboygan and company get over a foot of snow, the Milwaukee area will at least see 3-4 inches along with some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I better line up a snowblower... Maybe i'll go buy one at Menards, they had a bunch on clearance. Dude these avatars make me wish I wasnt married.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Dude these avatars make me wish I wasnt married.. pfff...don't let the ring stop you from having some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I better line up a snowblower... Maybe i'll go buy one at Menards, they had a bunch on clearance. Lock in a ice storm you do that. Couple more yrs and your boy will be the snowblower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The 18z GFS is showing possibly a foot and a half of heavy wet snow across west central Wisconsin near La Crosse by 6 am cst Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Dude these avatars make me wish I wasnt married.. Seems the trend has switched from smug pictures of random boys to pictures of centerfolds in provocative poses. Cyclone77's takes the cake as most provocative pose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It might not be too amped after seeing the GFS--it lends credence to the usually over-amped RGEM in its latter forecast hours. RGEM always struggles when the AO dips into the -side and the NAO is neutral and especially heading negative as it is doing. Usually too warm and or to amped/too far nw/n. I think a track ejecting out of CO along the NE/KS border than tracking E-NE into the central/southern third of IA then mostly E after that as the low begins to interact more with the vortex. I do think the GFS precip shield is not far enough N though--intense systems almost always have a larger dryslot and farther displaced precip band from the main low. I am going heavy on the SREF mean minus the eta members (see Prinsburgs maps) and the high res wrf runs. We all remember what happened with the northern plains blizzard and the Groundhog Blizzard in terms of the dryslot/precip shield. This storm may not be as wound up--but it is very intense and will have some of the same results. I am going with the more amped guidance. Yeah i don't think we will see much precip in the warm sector. I personally like a track close to/near i70 from KS on east. Probably north of i70 in MO/IL though near the IA/MO border and then again not far from i70 in IN/OH. Basically along/near the infamous 40n line. This is based on projected adjustments in modeling vs what we have as of 18z as they catch on the the NAO/AO. Usually when the NAO/AO goes south ( down to negative ) so do the storms. Not always the case but usually how it works. Why again the RGEM/Local HRW/RUC etc tend to struggle always when there is blocking/-ao/-nao. Same thing happens when those indices have been way up as we just observed and take a bit of a dive like we are seing. Models are usually a little slow to respond but do even up to the moment the storm arrives. This has been the only one constant in modeling i have seen anyways. Short of it. +AO/+NAO or a quick rise the rgem/ruc etc do well and usually models trend further north/nw. -ao/-nao or a quick drop and they dont and models have to play catch up and thus trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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