Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z NAM continues to show possible snow here at the onset sunday morning before the changeover. forecast sounding for the time of the sim ref. beautiful looking wind profile lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i'm going to keep tabs on the rgem...i think it did fairly well with that chicago storm a couple weeks ago. Here's 18z hr 48...just a tad n from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What do you think as of now? Along and north of 96 in west michigan and 59 in the east could be all snow? From What I've gathered today. Im going to say its going to stay mostly snow north of 59 and lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 DTX updated Detroit's forecast to mostly snow possibly mixed with sleet for Sunday afternoon. Still no accumulations however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i'm going to keep tabs on the rgem...i think it did fairly well with that chicago storm a couple weeks ago. Here's 18z hr 48...just a tad n from 12z. It did very well with the blizzard. FSD FTW on that image. put the low in northeast KS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 LSX WRF takes the sfc low pretty much along I-80 from OAX to northern IN a few images off this run.. a sharp warm front...I might start hoping for the warmer solution and hit up a par 3 course sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 LOT THIS WEEKEND...DIGGING TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GRADUALLY SATURATES ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...IMPORTANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE BUT MODELS DID SHIFT BACK SOUTH FROM YESTERDAYS TRACK. GFS/NAM/ECWMF COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ILLINOIS WHILE SREF TAKES A WORST CASE TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ANTICIPATED POSITION OF WARM FRONT...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE EXCEPTION/MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE THE NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP COLD LAYER BELOW ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT WILL REFREEZE FALLING PRECIP. PER THIS SOLUTION...SLEET WOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN. SHOULD SREF SOLUTION PAN OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN WHICH WOULD FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RIGHT NOW...SREF SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i'm going to keep tabs on the rgem...i think it did fairly well with that chicago storm a couple weeks ago. Here's 18z hr 48...just a tad n from 12z. It is prolly a bit too amped--but it certainly is more realistic than the NAM. I will be watching it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What do you think as of now? Along and north of 96 in west michigan and 59 in the east could be all snow? FWIW....GRR AFD.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 419 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011 LATEST UPDATE...LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS...(330 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011) ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE AND COULD AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF I-96 AND MIXED SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-96. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM HASN/T BEEN NAILED DOWN YET AND SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. && .SHORT TERM...(330 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011) (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH HEADLINES. SFC OBS SHOW WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE CWA AS GOOD MIXING VIA ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS BROUGHT DOWN 80 PERCENT OR SO OF THE 50KTS SEEN AT 2K FT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINSH THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE CONTINUED PAST 05Z. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM HAVE ALL CONVERGED ON A TRACK OF THE LOW FROM OMAHA TO CHICAGO AND ACROSS NRN INDIANA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGD TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY SATURATE THE PROFILE BY SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO SNOW DEVELOPING BY 12Z OR SO. A 50KT LLJ WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. IN FACT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO AN ICE STORM OVER THE SRN CWA. FCST SOUNDINGS ON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LARGE WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR BETWEEN 750-900MB AND SUBFREEZING AIR AT THE SFC. IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT THE NRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES WILL SEE ALL SNOW WITH OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE SRN CWA THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN MIXES IN AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER. BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO QUITE A FEW IMPACTS. ACROSS THE SRN CWA THIS LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE TOO SOME SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING. IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH WARM AIR MAKES IT IN HERE. AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 another nice discussion from DVN ...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY WITH QUESTIONS REGARDING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE... OVERVIEW...MODEL INITIALIZATION SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FAIR ON THE LARGER SCALE ISSUES AND POOR ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ADD COMPLEX ENERGY WRAPPED WITH UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA TO MAKE FOR EXCEPTIONALLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TYPES OF PRECIPITATION...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS SUNDAY. INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 18Z SUPPORTS A BLEND OF 50/50 OF UKMET/HI-RES ECMWF FOR SFC LOW TRACK NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR WITH THERMAL FIELDS AND FORCING FROM 80KM NAM-WRF. SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FEEDBACK IS SUGGESTED WHICH WILL IMPACT ON HOW SYSTEM EVOLVES AND WHERE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THESE QUESTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER TO A DEGREE DUE TO ENERGY OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL RH FEEDBACK ISSUES UNTIL SATURDAY PM FORECAST PACKAGE. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR WARM ADVECTION RAIN TO ARRIVE IN AREA...CIRCA 04-06Z AND EVOLVE AND MOVE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY 09Z AS THESE BAND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET ARE SUGGESTED ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS RISK AT THIS TIME IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH BUT PASS THIS AS THE MAJOR CONCERN TO LATER SHIFTS AS FORCING TOOLS INDICATE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. IF LOW TRACKS 30 TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR...DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS DOES SUPPORT PUTTING A WATCH OUT FOR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 SHOULD STAY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 32F SATURDAY NIGHT LIMITING ANY ICING RISK EXCEPT NEAR 30-31F POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE COMPLEX FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC LOW SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. LOCAL TOOLS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SWATHS OF .25 TO .75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON FORCING AND PHASING ISSUE. THIS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER CLARIFIED NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ONLY MINOR TO LOCALLY MODEST AFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS... MAINLY KEEPING RIVER LEVELS HIGH OR SLOWING THE RATE OF FALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAY VARY UP TO 25 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH 50S TO NEAR 60F POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH AND 30S FAR NORTH. STRONGEST GRADIENT SUGGESTED +/-20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR. A 10 UP TO 15 PLUS DEGREE DIFFERENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE DISTANCES. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COLDER WITH PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS SUGGESTED TO BE MINOR OF AN INCH OR LESS MOST LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LATE CLEARING MAY HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON LOWS MONDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW DTX AFD.... A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A VERY COMPACT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 925-850MB SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS STORM AS WE DEAL WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...A VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS UP VERY CLOSE TO THE MICHIGAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ARE A CONCERN ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER...ALTHOUGH LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SNEAKING INTO THE WARMER AIR. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS PULL THE FREEZING RAIN ALL THE WAY UP TO NEAR THE I-69 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ICING POSSIBLE. IF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE SNOW WILL EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH...AND IF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE FREEZING RAIN CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM DOES OCCLUDE AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME MOST LIKELY PROJECTIONS ARE FOR A SWATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/NORTHERN THUMB(POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES)...AN AREA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH ICING ON TOP ACROSS THE M-59 AND I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FOR THE ANN ARBOR/DETROIT AREA AND SOUTH. A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT PLENTY OF THINGS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 IWX WRF takes the sfc low from northeast MO to IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 La crosse going bullish. 6 to 15 north of I90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 IWX WRF takes the sfc low from IKK to IND.. Surface Temp/ dp when the heavy batch of precip moves in at hr 51.. l dp 2m temps.. Also dp doesn't go above 32 for a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Surface Temp/ dp when the heavy batch of precip moves in at hr 51.. dp 2m temps.. 850mb temps are around 0 but only get warmer as time goes on, very sharp baroclinic zone across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED WEATHER TYPE GRIDS ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 TO MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WHERE WARMER AIR /ABOVE 0C/ COMES IN ALOFT...PRECIP EXPECTED TO START OUT AS SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET/FZRA AND EVENTUALLY RAIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. BY SUN AFTERNOON A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOW TO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FCST AREA. 6-12 here... Wondering if being in the river valley will help/hurt any? Bluffs could pile it up good while i get glazed like a donut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS coming in a tick slower--but also deeper with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS at 42hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS at 42hr... Looks like at least .25+ qpf before the switch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Wow GFS trying to go sub 990 hpa on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 356 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE NOW KEEPING TEMPERATURE PROFILES A BIT COLDER THAN EARLIER RUNS WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY FRZG PRECIPITATION TO PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ONE OR TWO COUNTIES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON A STORM TRACK ACROSS S IA...PROBABLY NEAR DSM BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO. QPF OUTPUT VERY IMPRESSIVE AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND .75 INCH...AND 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE BRING AROUND 4G/KG INTO SE MN. SREF 24 HOUR QPF PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE ACROSS SW MN. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF PERHAPS 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM NEAR RWF THROUGH THE TC METRO AND INTO WESTERN WI. SREF SNOW PLUMES ACROSS THIS AREA DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE RANGE AMONG THE MEMBERS...BUT THE MAJORITY ARE ABOVE 10 INCHES. WOULDN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS N IA OR INTO SC MN ON SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT...K INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW.... Wow if this did verify....NAM Bufkit shows with the onset of the snow accum rates (using a 10:1) of 1.3 and 3.0 per hour with 4.4 at DTX before ZR begins.... then 0.57 ice....DTW....6 inches snow then 0.48 ice....MOP stays all snow total 8.6....LAN....6.9 snow then 0.55 ice....GRR....7.6 snow then 0.52 ice....for AZO....4.3 snow then 0.66 ice....SBN....5.4 snow then 0.10 ice then 0.05 rain with 1/0 sfc but compared to other sites looks underdone/bad data set....ORD 5.4 snow then .25 ice but it then shows .31 rain with a 1/0 SFC so could still be ice....for MKX 4.9 snow then 0.44 ice....GRB....7.2 all snow.....also of note was from I-94 south to I-80/90 ZR rates are initially at .25 per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS is south of the 12z run...sfc low gets to the IA/MO border then straight east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Detroit's all snow on this run. 1"+ QPF, very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW.... Wow if this did verify....NAM Bufkit shows with the onset of the snow accum rates (using a 10:1) of 1.3 and 3.0 per hour with 4.4 at DTX before ZR begins.... I believe it, and it's certainly plausible. Impressive to extreme Omega values are centered directly in the DGZ. It's going to be a aggregated type of snow too, which accumulates rather efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I think if I had to choose I would rather get 8 inches of snow by itself than 4-5 inches of snow along with a quarter of an inch plus of ice, but idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I think if I had to choose I would rather get 8 inches of snow by itself than 4-5 inches of snow along with a quarter of an inch plus of ice, but idk. Why wouldn't you if you like snow?.. Kinda a no-brainer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Channel 4 here is calling for 8-14 for Dodge north and 3-5 for Milwaukee area with 1-3 in the south. I could see 8-14 working out, GFS would be 1.4ish all snow here. 10:1 ratios would spit out 14 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Channel 4 here is calling for 8-14 for Dodge north and 3-5 for Milwaukee area with 1-3 in the south. I could see 8-14 working out, GFS would be 1.4ish all snow here. 10:1 ratios would spit out 14 inches. Enjoy it even though you don't want it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I wouldnt mind snow to ice to snow...as long as we get the white back so we can resume the snowcover days that had been piling up in earnest this winter. DTX keeps talking rain/freezing rain south of Detroit, and thats NOT to my liking, though if the latest model trends are correct, that wont be the case. Actually if it all works out just right, lay down a blanket of snow, then glaze crystal icicles on all the trees before ending as snow, it would be a literal fairyland of beauty. Of course, Id still take ALL snow in a heartbeat, even if its a nonflocking snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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