mnweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah I agree--the surface low starts out a tick weaker than really ramps up. Even small errors in the analysis and that low could pull farther NW similar to the GEM. Baro, does it look any better for snow in parts of NE MN if this thing ticks NW just a bit more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Prins, does the 36 hr QPF include the period between 24 and 30, or is it just 6 hr qpf? Just curious on how you do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I thought i've heard you on station WNAX out of Yankton, SD before...anyway, good to see you on the forum. yea, i'm on there. but back to this storm, let's see mike sidel now is up here in the 651-612 for TWC. and as i take a closer look at a comparison between the NAM and the R-GEM, the main synoptic difference i am seeing attm is that the R-gem is keeping part of the 500 low closed off by t=48 compared to the NAM opening up the low at the same timeframe, and it looks like both models are consistent in those solutions, looking back at past runs quickly. what's the consensus in here? the 500 low opening up or remaining behind and closed off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What in the world is the GFS doing? Low pressure moves ne to ne IA then suddenly moves se to nw IN between 30 and 36 hrs? I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What in the world is the GFS doing? Low pressure moves ne to ne IA then suddenly moves se to nw IN? I don't get it. I'm pretty sure it closes off and moves to NE IA and then a new low forms SE in IL and NW Ind. Also, RGEM pretty much has the same idea. Has a low closing off in IA/MN and a new low to the SE of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Some QPF disparities abound: RGEM: Looks like about 0.3" NAM: a shade under .5" GFS: 0.6-0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yea, i'm on there. but back to this storm, let's see mike sidel now is up here in the 651-612 for TWC. and as i take a closer look at a comparison between the NAM and the R-GEM, the main synoptic difference i am seeing attm is that the R-gem is keeping part of the 500 low closed off by t=48 compared to the NAM opening up the low at the same timeframe, and it looks like both models are consistent in those solutions, looking back at past runs quickly. what's the consensus in here? the 500 low opening up or remaining behind and closed off? I think this storm will be much stronger than the NAM has. See SREF and RGEM. GFS took a big step towards the closed upper low RGEM while the 0Z NAM took a step back. 18Z NAM was better than the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hey I expect to see pics/videos from you guys in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan tomorrow and tomorrow night! Our temps are right at freezing right now, so it's possible we may see a VERY brief period of freezing rain at onset. We're going to be close enough to where the warm front ends up our temps could bust hard either way tomorrow. I was pretty confident in us getting into the warm sector, but it now looks like the storm occludes earlier, which would put us very near where the warm front stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Prins, does the 36 hr QPF include the period between 24 and 30, or is it just 6 hr qpf? Just curious on how you do that. just the 6hr qpf...i get the data from iastate.edu...i guess i could do a script that does a total run qpf so hopefully the next storm i'll have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Baro, does it look any better for snow in parts of NE MN if this thing ticks NW just a bit more? Still on the edge of it all. Light snow maybe a short period of moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What in the world is the GFS doing? Low pressure moves ne to ne IA then suddenly moves se to nw IN between 30 and 36 hrs? I don't get it. The original low occludes, with a "transition" southeast along the occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 just the 6hr qpf...i get the data from iastate.edu...i guess i could do a script that does a total run qpf so hopefully the next storm i'll have that. Alright, thanks. I appreciate the maps you put out for us to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 just the 6hr qpf...i get the data from iastate.edu...i guess i could do a script that does a total run qpf so hopefully the next storm i'll have that. NWS just upgraded you to a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Really riding the line here in GR in terms of snow, either way after seeing no snow for about a week and a half, it'll nice to be seeing it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 MKE making some changes based on the NAM (latest AFD) .UPDATE... 18Z NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 18Z GFS INDICATES A QUICKER TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN AS WARM NOSE ON 40 KNOT 850 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ALSO BROUGHT LESS QPF. FONTOGENISIS BAND IS NARROWER AND PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z NAM INDICATES A SOMEWHAT REDUCED WARM NOSE...BUT THICKNESS STILL RISE TO ABOVE 540 INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO C AROUND 900 MB EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...NAM SOUNDINGS THEN COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. ADD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THUNDER ALREADY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND DESPITE WARM THICKNESS VALES TEMPERATURE PROFILE ARE JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 18Z AT MKE AND MSN. THEREFORE CANT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF CONVECTION WITH A SNOW BURST. NEW NAM ALSO DELAYS QPF A BIT. LESS THAN 0.25 AT MKE AND AROUND 0.25 AT MSN. HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH...BUT THEN PROFILES ARE WARMER. THEN WHEN MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES IN THE MKE AND MSN AREAS IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN. WILL CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS...BUT WILL NOT CHANGE HEADLINES. OVER 0.50 ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER FROM IOWA TO WALWORTH COUNTY...SO WHILE SNOW TOTALS MAY BE LESS...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AN ISSUE. BY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM SOUTH HALF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 some 30kft storms south of DSM, lets get those in the cold air lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Alright, thanks. I appreciate the maps you put out for us to see. thank you, like doing it. NWS just upgraded you to a blizzard warning. really? i haven't paid attention to the latest statements as been busy with the maps...thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Pretty interesting update earlier this evening from DVN... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 845 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011 .UPDATE... WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST ROUGHLY WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. EXPECT AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WITH HIGHER POSSIBILITIES OF SLEET AND/OR SMALL HAIL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH HAIL TO COVER THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE...WET SNOWFLAKES...AGAIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. THERE SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH SNOW TO FALL THAT WILL COVER THE GROUND...EXCEPT NEAR HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH VERY LOCALIZED MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. CONCERN EXPRESSED THE PAST TWO DAYS IS BEING CONFIRMED OF INTENSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY DYNAMIC EVENT. ..NICHOLS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I think this storm will be much stronger than the NAM has. See SREF and RGEM. GFS took a big step towards the closed upper low RGEM while the 0Z NAM took a step back. 18Z NAM was better than the 0Z. just saw the GFS and it's hybriding some type of semi-closed upper low a la the canadian global run. and looking at the UA analyses real quickly as well as the latest WV imagery, it looks like the r-gem is the closest so far with the 500 low coming onshore just south of SFO with the NAM 2nd closest and the GFS in 3rd place, comparing current time to the 06Z 500 panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Pretty interesting update earlier this evening from DVN... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 845 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011 .UPDATE... WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST ROUGHLY WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. EXPECT AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WITH HIGHER POSSIBILITIES OF SLEET AND/OR SMALL HAIL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH HAIL TO COVER THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE...WET SNOWFLAKES...AGAIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. THERE SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH SNOW TO FALL THAT WILL COVER THE GROUND...EXCEPT NEAR HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH VERY LOCALIZED MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. CONCERN EXPRESSED THE PAST TWO DAYS IS BEING CONFIRMED OF INTENSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY DYNAMIC EVENT. ..NICHOLS.. Was just about to post this lol.. Looks like you might see a brief period of wintry wx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I have read that the GGEM/RGEM sometimes has NW bias and a warm bias. If this is true about the warm bias, is that just a result of the further NW track or is it usually too warm even when it has the correct track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Convection over Missouri / Iowa line looking very healthy..This storm is a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The absolute best part about this system is we won't have any convection down south to rob us of our moisture. The gulf is wide open for cold sector precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gotta love the diffluence really starting to get going on WV, a nice little dry punch in the TX PH at the moment, can really see the very fast jet coming around the base of the trof if you loop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 here But wow does the "parade" of storms continue after this. Not really an end in sight. The term "back end loaded" Winter snowfall could be an understatement. LOL to think some of us thought winter was out like a lamb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 if only this was going to be all snow...still a pretty impressive signal with the lead fronto band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 BTW...RUC was colder with the run out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 BTW...RUC was colder with the run out this way. Kab.... Want to give you props for posting that. Nothing better than the RUC showing a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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