Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm just about all snow on the RGEM. Maybe one hour tops of SNPL mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 0z rgem hr 24 where you getting that output? the vizaweb model display only has the model out to t+06. but with the models amplifying the snowfall here in the twin cities run to run, i'm wondering who told mother nature to let paul heyman design this pattern? 18+" now possible in the metro? i hope the trend isn't getting worse yet, as i have to work tomorrow. I didn't want to get stuck there because it's 1/4 S+BS and the roads are impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN ADVANCE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO REMAINING REGIONS INCLUDING THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE AND KITCHENER - STRATFORD AREAS IN THE EVENING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST 10 TO 15 CM HURON - PERTH INTO THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE AND A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 CM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM ELGIN COUNTY TO WINDSOR..ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 WJBK says all snow! 4-7 inches from Downriver to just north of 696. 7-10 inches north of 696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 rgem 48hr total qpf wetter than the 12z run I believe for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 where you getting that output? the vizaweb model display only has the model out to t+06. but with the models amplifying the snowfall here in the twin cities run to run, i'm wondering who told mother nature to let paul heyman design this pattern? 18+" now possible in the metro? i hope the trend isn't getting worse yet, as i have to work tomorrow. I didn't want to get stuck there because it's 1/4 S+BS and the roads are impassable. hey Jim, where ya been man? i make those maps with gempak and data from weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In Michigan, northern edge of the mixing line doesn't get further NE than Grand Rapids-Downtown Detroit on the 0z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 where you getting that output? the vizaweb model display only has the model out to t+06. but with the models amplifying the snowfall here in the twin cities run to run, i'm wondering who told mother nature to let paul heyman design this pattern? 18+" now possible in the metro? i hope the trend isn't getting worse yet, as i have to work tomorrow. I didn't want to get stuck there because it's 1/4 S+BS and the roads are impassable. You should post more! I didn't know there was another Minnesota met. ALso, those maps are prinsburgs made with GEMPAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 where you getting that output? the vizaweb model display only has the model out to t+06. but with the models amplifying the snowfall here in the twin cities run to run, i'm wondering who told mother nature to let paul heyman design this pattern? 18+" now possible in the metro? i hope the trend isn't getting worse yet, as i have to work tomorrow. I didn't want to get stuck there because it's 1/4 S+BS and the roads are impassable. Thats crazy 2 inches + with decent ratios as temps look to stay mid 20's. Might see amounts like you saw with the dec 11-12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Using different methods, the NAM has 6-14" of snow for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Using different methods, the NAM has 6-14" of snow for ORD. I could see 4" at ORD but nothing more lol we'll see, would loved to be proved wrong. what methods are you using? I'm guessing one is cobb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yep, NAM is heavily sleet contaminated south of I-96/M-59/I-696. 2-4" then tons of sleet (no freezing rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hey Jim, where ya been man? i make those maps with gempak and data from weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca wish i had gempak. as for me, well i was enjoying the solace of the pattern this week until now. but with the latest runs of the NAM and regional so far, i'm planning to take the air mattress, comforter, and a couple days worth of lunches as well as breakfast. and to think on monday when i last did the company forecast shift (working mainly audio this weekend) when it was calm, i thought it was a valentine's gift from mother nature, as she usually makes my forecasts more difficult than for the other forecasters. I'm thinking this is her payback to me, S&M style. but the impressive dynamics of this storm are making me think we've got another paper-worthy system here. and the other problem is not only with this storm, but another potential one at the end of the week, then melting all this stuff in march and april. the rivers are going to be a total F'ing mess as i understand things from the RFC here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yep, NAM is heavily sleet contaminated south of I-96/M-59/I-696. 2-4" then tons of sleet (no freezing rain). Nam is close with the second wave and the RGEM has decent banding making it up into michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You should post more! I didn't know there was another Minnesota met. ALso, those maps are prinsburgs made with GEMPAK. i am addicted to politics and need to break that addiction. but i'm over at weathereye. and if you're with the NWS, I'm on NWSChat on occasion when things go nuts, we have stations down there (KZTL and KRNP). and when i go live with the warnings, i do what i can to relay things as i hear them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I could see 4" at ORD but nothing more lol we'll see, would loved to be proved wrong. what methods are you using? I'm guessing one is cobb. Cobb, max temp, omega, 10:1 ratio, ect. Not going to happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Compared to the 12z run, 00z GFS is slightly weaker, placement is about the same through 18hr. Like the NAM it's also a tick slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS says congrats RGEM. Nice call Baro, I'll give you props. GFS looks almost like the RGEM in terms of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM DTX snowfall map Wow is all I can say. 3 inches in southern macomb and 14-16 in northern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 HR 27: 996 low near the MN/IA border. Although 850's are still pretty similar compared to 12 and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Compared to the 12z run, 00z GFS is slightly weaker, placement is about the same through 18hr. Like the NAM it's also a tick slower. It is actually a bit slower again and a tick NW. The low level cyclone is a tick stronger too at 850. More or less it is the same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i am addicted to politics and need to break that addiction. but i'm over at weathereye. and if you're with the NWS, I'm on NWSChat on occasion when things go nuts, we have stations down there (KZTL and KRNP). and when i go live with the warnings, i do what i can to relay things as i hear them. I thought i've heard you on station WNAX out of Yankton, SD before...anyway, good to see you on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 a good deal of lighting strikes in northern MO/southern IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Compared to the 12z run, 00z GFS is slightly weaker, placement is about the same through 18hr. Like the NAM it's also a tick slower. It's really just a tad slower and a bit NW of its 12z run at 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's really just a tad slower and a bit NW of its 12z run at 21 hours. Closes off fully with a 534 dm contour. The upper trough looks much more impressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Widespread 14+ inches in S. WI on the GFS through 30 according to twister data. Pretty impressive system this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Closes off fully with a 534 dm contour. The upper trough looks much more impressive this run. Ya sort of gives some credence to the HRRR's further north trend, we'll have to see if this thing really takes off as it could easily pull northwest of that gfs track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ya sort of gives some credence to the HRRR's further north trend, we'll have to see if this thing really takes off as it could easily pull northwest of that gfs track. Yeah I agree--the surface low starts out a tick weaker than really ramps up. Even small errors in the analysis and that low could pull farther NW similar to the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 0z ukie 24 & 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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