Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If the GFS is set, I'm full game, or if the RGEM continues with it's nice QPF trajectory This run is easily all snow, even with a marginal warm layer there. That impressive CCB would easily pass through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm not accusing him of wishcasting. He's a great met, but I thought he meant he was throwing out the GFS also (since he said RGEM is leading the way) Just thought he meant he was throwing out the GFS as well, which is why I said that. It's fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Detroit members will love this run. Looks to be all snow detroit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seriously, you're embarrassing yourself. If you want to refute what he's saying using valid reasoning, fine. But accusing him of wishcasting (which is implicitly what you're doing) is beyond stupid and is more indicative of your own wishcasting. I am not even wishcasting haha. 0Z NAM would actually be good for me--but the reality is this could very well bomb and track farther N and bring mixing into MSP. Oh well--but the 0Z NAM took a big step back from its 12 and 18Z runs where it was finally catching on. I have seen it happen so many times in these feedback scenarios where the NAM is a tick too slow "ramping" up the low--therefore it ends up being progressively weaker with time while the other guidance are progressively becoming stronger. NAM did it bad with the Groundhogs day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah it reminds me a lot of that storm. NAM failed all the way to the bitter end. It took actual observations as the storm was ongoing to correct it--and even then it was always a step behind. RGEM leading the way here once again. Don't get me wrong as I am in now way doubting you or anything but yea the RGEM was right with the chicago blizzard, but it's been almost too amped and NW with almost every other storm. Also with the HRR and the RUC they are often off too. Do you think maybe as the NAO and AO were going a bit negative the last 24 hours, that the models may pick up on it on tonights runs? Could lead a little more south of a track as the euro and NAM are showing?. Thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM nailed the Jan12-13th storm and the Feb 5th storm The good thing about the NAM is it is easy to tell when it is garbage and when it may actually pull a coup. It did well with the SNE Noreaster earlier this winter where all the globals failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm not accusing him of wishcasting. He's a great met, but I thought he meant he was throwing out the GFS also (since he said RGEM is leading the way) Just thought he meant he was throwing out the GFS as well, which is why I said that. It's fine though. Well you accused him of siding with a model "for no reason". You're implying something with a statement like that. Use more discretion when choosing your words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 intense fronto band and then a line of storms going up in IA/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Baro, why does it track farther north? Is it because the low is stronger and it pulls up the southeast ridge ahead of it more? Yeah positive feedback and the WAA process increases and the overall storm rapidly deepens at a fast rate. The dryslot becomes larger and the CCB becomes farther displaced from the upper low as heights fall faster and the overall cyclone increases in size while it also tracks farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks to be all snow detroit north Certainly does!! Get the Goofers and king on the boat and a little more south...We got ourselves a nice snow event!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Certainly does!! Get the Goofers and king on the boat and a little more south...We got ourselves a nice snow event!! We never want ICE! its useless. I would rather have plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its kinda funny...Not much hype about this storm... Have not got the stupid text message yet " so does my kid get a snow day chuck" Sometimes I wana tell these nuckle heads to piss off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Don't get me wrong as I am in now way doubting you or anything but yea the RGEM was right with the chicago blizzard, but it's been almost too amped and NW with almost every other storm. Also with the HRR and the RUC they are often off too. Do you think maybe as the NAO and AO were going a bit negative the last 24 hours, that the models may pick up on it on tonights runs? Could lead a little more south of a track as the euro and NAM are showing?. Thanks for your input. I should have been more careful with wording since the RGEM has actually been leading the way with a stronger NW trending track that is slower. I am not necessarily buying the RGEM verbatim though--but almost all other guidance is falling to the RGEM while the RGEM holds with its solution. GFS was close and makes very slow ticks towards the RGEM. But like I said--18Z GFS is pretty closed to my preferred track ATM. SREF took a big jump N though--I am interested to see the 0Z GFS/Euro/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We never want ICE! its useless. I would rather have plain rain Much agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Surprised by the lack of a watch and zero hype by our local media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 With regard to ice storms I will say though....I freaking hate em...but they make for some awesome photography..especially when the sun comes out and the trees looked as if they were glazed with Mercury. Awesome stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its kinda funny...Not much hype about this storm... Have not got the stupid text message yet " so does my kid get a snow day chuck" Sometimes I wana tell these nuckle heads to piss off. I have not gotten 1 text "yet" on how much snow were supposed to get as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its kinda funny...Not much hype about this storm... Have not got the stupid text message yet " so does my kid get a snow day chuck" Sometimes I wana tell these nuckle heads to piss off. Aren't the schools out for winter break this week? I know DPS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW, 21Z SREF are decent here even with the northward track...850s stay at/around or below 0 here and freezing line doesn't make it past state border (This is the mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Surprised by the lack of a watch and zero hype by our local media. I think the warm up that most of us received has warped the public into spring fever. It happens..at this point in the winter snow is just snow and allot of snow is just an inconvience. Winter is slowly creeping away..Walk into Sears or Home Depot and the spring patio furniture , BBQs, Lawn Mowers are all out on the sales floor. You would think its April by the look of the stores..Basically no one cares about winter anymore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Aren't the schools out for winter break this week? I know DPS is. Most schools are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll have to see the top-down soundings (for temperatures between 850mb and 700mb, where the strongest WAA is) before I go buck wild over this run. NAM may think a lot of it is sleet, but with that CCB overhead I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW, 21Z SREF are decent here even with the northward track...850s stay at/around or below 0 here and freezing line doesn't make it past state border (This is the mean) So the WSW still looks solid for 3rd tier counties..Any ice we get is gona SUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Surprised by the lack of a watch and zero hype by our local media. Not surprised by the lack of watch here, given what the RGEM's been showing, but I was surprised nothing was hoisted at least SW of a Goderich-Long Point Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Most schools are If we can get a suprise 20 inches they could be closed all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If we can get a suprise 20 inches they could be closed all week. The Storm with no media attention over preforms...That would be classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not surprised by the lack of watch here, given what the RGEM's been showing, but I was surprised nothing was hoisted at least SW of a Goderich-Long Point Line. So what do you think is in the cards for SW & S-Central Ont.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So the WSW still looks solid for 3rd tier counties..Any ice we get is gona SUCK! Its solid everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Sexy That alone would easily dump a quick 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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