snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Could be the case where the second wave ends up stronger than the first? Still can't help but think of the dec 19 2008 storm as far as track and precip issues. Also I hope the same doesnt occur as with the feb 1st storm where it went further NW as time got closer. This first wave and the baroclinic zone doesnt seem as impressive so we will see. Maybe Patrick can update his thoughts about this. Only the 12z UKIE and a few GEFS members are indicating the second wave being strong and far enough north to affect us to any appreciable degree. I would think the confluence left behind from the first storm would tend to shear the second wave to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe Patrick can update his thoughts about this. Only the 12z UKIE and a few GEFS members are indicating the second wave being strong and far enough north to affect us to any appreciable degree. I would think the confluence left behind from the first storm would tend to shear the second wave to the south. \Yea I would agree and I questioned the euro yesterday and a little today with the second wave being so far north. It's rare that no model has really led the way so far. They all have had diffrences, (some more than others) each run. It's good to see them trending a little south and colder each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Do you have those 500 hpa vorticity plots? Also--I am all for dropping the eta members. They typically are worthless. this what you mean?...here's 60 & 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 this what you mean?...here's 60 & 48hr. Thanks! Looks good. I hope you get your stuff online soon. You should consider asking for help here on the forums--I bet someone could help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18Z NAM is even slower than the already slow 12Z NAM--which was the slowest of all guidance. I don't find this too believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18Z NAM is even slower than the already slow 12Z NAM--which was the slowest of all guidance. I don't find this too believable. vortex in canada is further south, thus a more suppressed look . Well it was looking south to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am happy I am out of this one. The models will struggle to the end for the exact placement of the "wintry" weather. If you are on the edge, it will be annoying lol. At this point I'm just trying to convince myself that anything from here on out is just a bonus, and I shouldn't try to labor over the specifics of the models. Unfortunately, it's not working that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z precip starved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe Patrick can update his thoughts about this. Only the 12z UKIE and a few GEFS members are indicating the second wave being strong and far enough north to affect us to any appreciable degree. I would think the confluence left behind from the first storm would tend to shear the second wave to the south. This would be correct, there isn't enough wave separation between the two, so those areas that are getting QPF bullseyes with the second system need to watch the evolution of it because those amounts probably will be going down. Unless the first piece is substantially weaker than the second piece is the more dominant one, which is still possible though doesn't look likely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Nope, it is the 18z nam. Unless is shows a major trend change, who cares. Sometimes the NAM gets credence when it seems to be catching on to something other guidance does not--this is not one of those cases. The NAM has been struggling mightily lately with high profile storms--more so than in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 La Crosse THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL HAS EXCEEDED THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR REACHING WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA BASED ON SNOWFALL NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND NORTH....AND THE ICING POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.25 INCHES OF GLAZE ICE IN THE SOUTHERN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A WARMING TO RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT APPEARS THAT PERIOD IS MOST CRITICAL FOR NORTHEAST IA AND SWRN WI. IF THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE PLACED SOUTH OF I-90 AND INTO NERN IA AND SWRN WI. THUS...ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This is going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Hope we see a south shift a little.... i don't need or want any ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GRR to issuw WSW for entire area....ice south/ice/snow in between, all snow north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Meh,18z NAM still shows 4-6" before the transition to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Thinking 8-12 up here towards my area based on the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Hope we see a south shift a little.... i don't need or want any ice accumulation. I think you'll be pretty safe at this point. The graphic for LSE has you on the northern end of the wintry mix region. It might be a concern for SE Wisconsin back due west, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Try to keep the political discussion out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GRR to issuw WSW for entire area....ice south/ice/snow in between, all snow north. What do you think as of now? Along and north of 96 in west michigan and 59 in the east could be all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just pushed out 19Z SmartModel output, added some more cities across SD, MN areas. Right now seeing some impressive snowfall potential: Pontiac and Grand Rapids area looking at a potential for 15" of snowfall on the 20th. Aberdeen and Rapid City looking around 8-11" for the 19-20. Chicago area only looking for around 3-5" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What do you think as of now? Along and north of 96 in west michigan and 59 in the east could be all snow? ice should mix in to at least 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 ice should mix in to at least 69 Yea I was thinking that yesterday but most of the models have trended to the south slowly. Going to be a tough forecast no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just pushed out 19Z SmartModel output, added some more cities across SD, MN areas. Right now seeing some impressive snowfall potential: Pontiac and Grand Rapids area looking at a potential for 15" of snowfall on the 20th. Aberdeen and Rapid City looking around 8-11" for the 19-20. Chicago area only looking for around 3-5" of snowfall. Well I hope your home made model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I like the detail in MKX's AFD that just came out. They're thinking north of a Madison to Port Washington line will see WSW criteria of heavy snow or freezing rain. Hence, they will issue watches for this area. For the moment, Waukesha County south and east will not be under watches and warnings, but I suspect they will at least end up with WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just pushed out 19Z SmartModel output, added some more cities across SD, MN areas. Right now seeing some impressive snowfall potential: Pontiac and Grand Rapids area looking at a potential for 15" of snowfall on the 20th. Aberdeen and Rapid City looking around 8-11" for the 19-20. Chicago area only looking for around 3-5" of snowfall. do you mean bong or model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Low levels look really dry early on. Maybe we can start off with like 10 minutes of mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 New HPC snow maps shifted north a bit, but the models havent gone north so a bit confused. I dont usually find them very accurate IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 My guess is they are think WAA is being undermodeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 here's hoping for a 50 mile shift north or south...really dont want an ice situation when if i lose power, i can't get anywhere...rain or snow please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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