cmichweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 HRRR is already 990 hpa at only 14Z. Ya it's crazy north and strong, i'd get decent snow with the HRRR it's overblown but i wonder by how much. 00z will be rolling in shortly ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 36 & 42 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow, HRRR would probably end up with rain here lol. Crazy north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Why the sudden shift northward with everything this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow, HRRR would probably end up with rain here lol. Crazy north. Where do you get the HRRR?Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM sure is taking its sweet time starting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is out to hr 12 on SV maps. Looks to be a tad south and a bit slower compared to 12z so far. Same strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM sure is taking its sweet time starting up. I thought it was something on my end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 mnweather: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=full&run_time=20+Feb+2011+-+00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RUC/HRRR are bombing this out and bringing freezing rain all the way into the Twin Cities. I've been using the HRRR for sometime. It's usually off the wall the first few runs when handling systems, not saying it couldn't happen..because it easily could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is just an awful numerical model. This is a joke. Had a clue at 18Z but goes back to having no clue. What a junk pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 lol, why do you say that? Looks reasonable to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 lol, why do you say that? Looks reasonable to me so far. Too weak and takes to long to spin up the surface low. It is back to being weaker than the 18Z which was finally catching a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Too weak and takes to long to spin up the surface low. It is back to being weaker than the 18Z which was finally catching a clue. Isnt the NAM historicaly the most accurate model map inside 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Too weak and takes to long to spin up the surface low. It is back to being weaker than the 18Z which was finally catching a clue. Its actually almost the same at hour 24 on 18z. Maybe a hair south. Definitely occludes quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its actually almost the same at hour 24 on 18z. Maybe a hair south. We need to go 30 miles south for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its actually almost the same at hour 24 on 18z. Maybe a hair south. No it really isn't--it is weaker and it can be better seen in the mass fields. It is the NAM being junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Isnt the NAM historicaly the most accurate model map inside 48 hrs? Sometimes it can be useful--it has been in fail mode for quite a few storms lately though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Isnt the NAM historicaly the most accurate model map inside 48 hrs? I don't think the NAM is ever the most accurate model in any time frame. It just progressively less bad as you get closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam is becoming like groundhog day. Yeah it reminds me a lot of that storm. NAM failed all the way to the bitter end. It took actual observations as the storm was ongoing to correct it--and even then it was always a step behind. RGEM leading the way here once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah it reminds me a lot of that storm. NAM failed all the way to the bitter end. It took actual observations as the storm was ongoing to correct it--and even then it was always a step behind. RGEM leading the way here once again. RGEM leading the way? The storm hasn't even really developed yet. GFS has been consistent as well and makes a lot of sense. Seems like you're throwing it out for no reason really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah it reminds me a lot of that storm. NAM failed all the way to the bitter end. It took actual observations as the storm was ongoing to correct it--and even then it was always a step behind. RGEM leading the way here once again. Whats your "preferred" model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RGEM leading the way? The storm hasn't even really developed yet. GFS has been consistent as well and makes a lot of sense. Seems like you're throwing it out for no reason really. I am throwing it out because I have been doing this for a long time--and I understand when models are junk based on the ongoing dynamics. I don't bother writing 10 page dynamic analysis since nobody will care--but I am not simply throwing it out for no reason. We are mets for a reason As for comparing the GFS--take a look at the 18Z GFS and compare it to the NAM. No comparison. GFS actually has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Whats your "preferred" model? I said a few pages back the 18Z GFS is pretty close to my preference but a keen eye needs to be kept on the NOWcast as this could easily track farther N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The NAM did blow it on Groundhog storm. Convective feedback, placement...list goes on an on. Didnt the HRRR nail the Groundhog system fairly well? The Hi Res models are becoming a useful tool as of late. Gota love the ole GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Detroit members will love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The NAM did blow it on Groundhog storm. Convective feedback, placement...list goes on an on. Didnt the HRRR nail the Groundhog system fairly well? The Hi Res models are becoming a useful tool as of late. Gota love the ole GFS though. NAM nailed the Jan12-13th storm and the Feb 5th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RGEM leading the way? The storm hasn't even really developed yet. GFS has been consistent as well and makes a lot of sense. Seems like you're throwing it out for no reason really. Seriously, you're embarrassing yourself. If you want to refute what he's saying using valid reasoning, fine. But accusing him of wishcasting (which is implicitly what you're doing) is beyond stupid and is more indicative of your own wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Detroit members will love this run. If the GFS is set, I'm full game, or if the RGEM continues with it's nice QPF trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I said a few pages back the 18Z GFS is pretty close to my preference but a keen eye needs to be kept on the NOWcast as this could easily track farther N. Baro, why does it track farther north? Is it because the low is stronger and it pulls up the southeast ridge ahead of it more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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