kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like the slower and further north it is out west, the less snow we get over here. GFS/RGEM show that vividly. I've noticed than too....the NAM had a dryslot over Far SE MI, but the RGEM/GFS has a more NW to SE orientation that gives these locations more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This will definitely be a nowcast event for southern Wisconsin, no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I've noticed than too....the NAM had a dryslot over Far SE MI, but the RGEM/GFS has a more NW to SE orientation that gives these locations more QPF I think if this occurs we would do pretty good. The main thing is that we should be able to stay all snow if it goes NW to se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This will definitely be a nowcast event for southern Wisconsin, no doubt! yes, have this map ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 How many miles north do you think you are from me.. I live on 24th street off the college ave exit and then north a mile maybe. Be interesting to see the difference in weather.. I am about 10-12 miles north and 4 miles west. I think there could be a reasonably big difference in snow or icing. I could see getting an inch or two more of snow and maybe slightly less or more icing than you. I'm interested to see how much ice vs. sleet we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 pretty darn cool WV loop and were just getting going http://climate.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 prins, do you have the 18z ukie maps for hr 24-36 by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The big question for my location is when will the snow turn to a mix? The latest forecast grid has about noon...that's later than the 9 a.m. that it had earlier showed. I have my doubts. Right now, I'll have to say an earlier transistion time because it looks as this is going a bit north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 prins, do you have the 18z ukie maps for hr 24-36 by any chance? no, i don't get that data for the 06/18z runs. here's a link that has the surface pressure...looks like the 18z is n of the 12z run. 18z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I am about 10-12 miles north and 4 miles west. I think there could be a reasonably big difference in snow or icing. I could see getting an inch or two more of snow and maybe slightly less or more icing than you. I'm interested to see how much ice vs. sleet we get. That's what I was thinking mileage wise roughly.. wouldn't surprise me to see you come in with a good 3/4/5" more.. I have no clue about the icing but I feel there is going to be a nice strip of it and then with the heavy snow it could create some problems for sure. Hoping that falling during part of the day helps and w/e little help the lake can provide limits it some but who knows. I've had a bad ice feeling about this one for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 The big question for my location is when will the snow turn to a mix? The latest forecast grid has about noon...that's later than the 9 a.m. that it had earlier showed. I have my doubts. Right now, I'll have to say an earlier transistion time because it looks as this is going a bit north now. It'll probably depend on where you live in Milwaukee County. I live toward the north and west part of the county so I think sometime late morning is when the changeover will occur. Wet, heavy snow and freezing rain will both cause plenty of travel headaches regardless, with sleet probably being more manageable. It doesn't seem like the shift north has affected the temp profiles much so far, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's what I was thinking mileage wise roughly.. wouldn't surprise me to see you come in with a good 3/4/5" more.. I have no clue about the icing but I feel there is going to be a nice strip of it and then with the heavy snow it could create some problems for sure. Hoping that falling during part of the day helps and w/e little help the lake can provide limits it some but who knows. I've had a bad ice feeling about this one for awhile. The decreased ice near the lake would be made up for by snow or sleet? I'm wondering because it seems we may get the same amount of snow as points due west but less ice due to being near the lake. Unless the QPF amounts differ the decreased ice would have to be made up by either more snow or sleet, or even rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 There's some decent convection in C. Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not that it pertains to this storm, but is anybody else having trouble accessing the 18z GFS beyond 114 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Getting interesting that more and more models move the Low pressure further north and kind of hold it up there as pressures lower over IL/IN/OH....this will determine greatly the orientation of the precipitation, especially for folks in ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 There's some decent convection in C. Missouri. Was this precip on the models? Probably just the usual waa precip arriving earlier than forecasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The decreased ice near the lake would be made up for by snow or sleet? I'm wondering because it seems we may get the same amount of snow as points due west but less ice due to being near the lake. Unless the QPF amounts differ the decreased ice would have to be made up by either more snow or sleet, or even rain . Cobb from 18z nam gives 3.4" of snow to start... then hr 24-34 is plain rain... then .22" of fzra from hr 35-40.. then back to 4" of light snow to end and hr 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Getting interesting that more and more models move the Low pressure further north and kind of hold it up there as pressures lower over IL/IN/OH....this will determine greatly the orientation of the precipitation, especially for folks in ON. Yeah, RGEM is like 1/4 inch here. Really stingy. Basically the slower the low is to push east, the more time the PV has to sink south and squash everything. Might work out in your favor, although there's still a lot to be worked out. For instance, 21z RUC through 24 hours is so far north with its stripe of accumulating snow, I don't see how we get fringed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not that it pertains to this storm, but is anybody else having trouble accessing the 18z GFS beyond 114 hours? Yea been stuck there for a long time on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yea been stuck there for a long time on SV. NCEP's been sucking the big one for a couple of months now. Hopefully once the transition to the new model homepage is complete, some of this stuff won't occur so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Was this precip on the models? Probably just the usual waa precip arriving earlier than forecasted... GFS has it. NAM doesn't really show it until after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It'll probably depend on where you live in Milwaukee County. I live toward the north and west part of the county so I think sometime late morning is when the changeover will occur. Wet, heavy snow and freezing rain will both cause plenty of travel headaches regardless, with sleet probably being more manageable. It doesn't seem like the shift north has affected the temp profiles much so far, though. I live about a mile south of Southridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Cobb from 18z nam gives 3.4" of snow to start... then hr 24-34 is plain rain... then .22" of fzra from hr 35-40.. then back to 4" of light snow to end and hr 59. Other methods show 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Cobb from 18z nam gives 3.4" of snow to start... then hr 24-34 is plain rain... then .22" of fzra from hr 35-40.. then back to 4" of light snow to end and hr 59. Man, I'm hoping we can limit that rain. That said, it is just one model, and one that has been having problems, and is behind the curve in terms of the precip starting in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I live about a mile south of Southridge. Basically just inland more than me (im on 24th st and I imagine you're a little east or west of 76th st ?) and a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just a quick update for snowfall potential thought via SmartModel, been running it hourly for the last 4 hours now. Here is a breakdown that I have as of 19Z: Full list can be viewed at http://smartwxmodel.net. Going to spin up some more cities to pin down a bullseye area. LaCrosse: 15-18" Minneapolis: 14" Oshkosh: 15" Milwaukee: 9" and .3" of FZRA Rochester: 11" and .5" of FZRA Madison: 7" and .7" of FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, RGEM is like 1/4 inch here. Really stingy. Basically the slower the low is to push east, the more time the PV has to sink south and squash everything. Might work out in your favor, although there's still a lot to be worked out. For instance, 21z RUC through 24 hours is so far north with its stripe of accumulating snow, I don't see how we get fringed here. Hope the ruc hhr and other short term models are wrong this time with the further north strong solutions. Damn lows keep getting too strong and going too far north. Early in the season we had the se suppressed trends. Can't win up here when it comes to big snows . Life goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Man, I'm hoping we can limit that rain. That said, it is just one model, and one that has been having problems, and is behind the curve in terms of the precip starting in Missouri. I'll take the rain during that period over fzra anytime - i like power lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Basically just inland more than me (im on 24th st and I imagine you're a little east or west of 76th st ?) and a tad north. Just east of 76th St. South of Grange Ave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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