baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm pretty sure that pic is from 5/10 last year lol I saved it as well. what a fun and intense nowcasting day that was. Makes sense. Close to a bombing event where the mid level heights drop like a rock. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us0511j3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS looks a bit drier so far. Maybe fixing it's issues from 12z? La Crosse said something about the GFS having dew points 5-10 degrees to high right now, which is why it was pretty high with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Strange how it sends one low to S.MN and then has another just south of here. Can't recall seeing that happen with this type of system. Isn't this kind of the same thing the Euro was depicting a couple days ago. Two different lows...they're just much further north and west than forecast a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 One thing is for certain. This is going to be a nasty ice storm, although it's going to be nowhere near as bad as February 24, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the rgem has the 850 L near sioux falls at hr 30 so could be some mix for a time in s MN...is this the time period for possible thundersnow, baro? Yeah about that time as the warm theta-e axis pushes in and heights tank aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We're starting to get into the HRRR range now. It nailed the early Feb blizzard. Impressive WAA wing precip breaking out at 10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Money La Crosse said to be wary of the GFS.. so yeah, probably too wet in earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS stronger and a tad slower at 36. Hangs onto the low much longer then the EURO does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Makes sense. Close to a bombing event where the mid level heights drop like a rock. http://www.meteo.psu...10/us0511j3.php probably one of the few days I didn't want to chase..storms moving at 60mph with 1000 chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We're starting to get into the HRRR range now. It nailed the early Feb blizzard. Impressive WAA wing precip breaking out at 10z. Ya i've noticing the further north trend with the hrrr and 24 hour backup ruc, but i'll wait til the 00z models til I think anything that extreme is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We're starting to get into the HRRR range now. It nailed the early Feb blizzard. Impressive WAA wing precip breaking out at 10z. convection heading this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 RGEM has company as the 24 hr RUC crawls a low along the IA/MN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS takes a step towards the RGEM and is slower and more NW just a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS takes a step towards the RGEM and is slower and more NW just a tick. i didn't look at the 12z ukie until now but has 988 L over nw IA at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS takes a step towards the RGEM and is slower and more NW just a tick. I'm thinking that after looking at the recent ruc trend/HRRR/rgem and 18z models that this might come north a bit 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Another reason to support the deeper solutions that tank out faster--convective driven surface pressure falls. It never fails--and there will be plenty of convection on the meso scale to help force strong pressure falls in combo with the jet coupling progged by all guidance. I don't see a flat and S solution like the Euro even having a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro, I'm beginning to think a track NW to Northern IA may be a good possibility...You think in that situation, the low would just craw there until a weak surface low shows up over IL due to the confluence...I'm wondering if that will hold temps in check out this way actually and contribute to a more NW to SE orientation. Though I have no clue if what I'm saying makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro 12z ensemble does not even come close to supporting the op. Looks like most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro, do you have the EURO ens. QPF at all? Would think it would be higher then the OP with the low in that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Edit: It is close--but it is deeper and slower than the op by a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro, do you have the EURO ens. QPF at all? Would think it would be higher then the OP with the low in that place. Nah I am just a pleb using the free stuff for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Another reason to support the deeper solutions that tank out faster--convective driven surface pressure falls. It never fails--and there will be plenty of convection on the meso scale to help force strong pressure falls in combo with the jet coupling progged by all guidance. I don't see a flat and S solution like the Euro even having a chance. Baro, any chance Duluth get some snow with this now that things look to go north a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro, I'm beginning to think a track NW to Northern IA may be a good possibility...You think in that situation, the low would just craw there until a weak surface low shows up over IL due to the confluence...I'm wondering if that will hold temps in check out this way actually and contribute to a more NW to SE orientation. Though I have no clue if what I'm saying makes any sense. Yeah Northern IA seems like a good bet. YEsterday I was thinking central IA would be a good call--but that is looking S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro, any chance Duluth get some snow with this now that things look to go north a little? Right on the edge but I think at least some light snow is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We are getting way too close for comfort with either an ice storm, all snow, or an equal combination of both, especially with this slight north trend I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 I honestly want to avoid a cold rain. What are things looking like in those regards? Also, why does the significant ice accretion seem to be limited near the shores of the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Still think mostly snow here... maybe some sleet to kill those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I honestly want to avoid a cold rain. What are things looking like in those regards? Also, why does the significant ice accretion seem to be limited near the shores of the lake? How many miles north do you think you are from me.. I live on 24th street off the college ave exit and then north a mile maybe. Be interesting to see the difference in weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 La Crosse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like the slower and further north it is out west, the less snow we get over here. GFS/RGEM show that vividly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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