Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well Prinsburgwx--I may need to adjust my thinking from last night and include you in the potential thundersnow. This storm is wicked. you agree with csnavy regarding the TSSN chances here before the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And what's more special is that the 18z NAM run on the day before big storm is usually the one that goes crazy SE and dry. True. I remember the dec 19th 2008 storm where 24 hrs before the storm the 18z NAM went south and gave us practically nothing. We ended up with 20cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Why i am now hoping this thing comes north another 100 miles or so. I'll take that over a cold rain/ice any day. Yeah it seems there's a point when sometimes we have to root for the complete opposite scenario we once were hoping for lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think we have a good chance to approach 60 here. Almost makes you just want to go in to spring mode with the bare ground but then you look at the calendar and know its not over unless another fluke March happens up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Why i am now hoping this thing comes north another 100 miles or so. I'll take that over a cold rain/ice any day. Harry, you want it to be warm, or do you have ulterior motives for the storm later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 As long as the wind stays NE, I wouldn't bet on the surface temps in Detroit getting much above 32F. Maybe a degree or two for awhile. Low level cold air has a tendency to stay in place with NE surface winds and a high north of Lake Superior. Thing is that surface low track would now put the winds in a more easterly direction vs ne. Gonna be close for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 you agree with csnavy regarding the TSSN chances here before the changeover? Oh yeah--a legitimate shot of either TSSN although it would likely be more graupel like than actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This northern trending always kills you when your on the edge. Never fails. We have all seen crazy shifts 24-36 out...who knows this could be a repeat of past storms that went awal from the models. Doubtful but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Harry, you want it to be warm, or do you have ulterior motives for the storm later next week? I'll just take the warmth over a cold rain. Have not given much thought to that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well Prinsburgwx--I may need to adjust my thinking from last night and include you in the potential thundersnow. This storm is wicked. been a long time since i've been in a location with thundersnow so by all means, include me in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prelim thoughts for mby are 4 to 8. 10 is a possibility if we get the more northern solution to verify, plus some banding/TSSN to develop. Better amounts (12"+) are going to be back west across S MN/C WI/C MI where the PV doesn't start putting the squeeze on the precip so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think we have a good chance to approach 60 here. 60º shouldn't be a problem. Whoopee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The mass amount of jet stream divergence ahead of the ejecting trough is spectacular over the 4 corners. The difluent flow typical with intense storms is on full display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The mass amount of jet stream divergence ahead of the ejecting trough is spectacular over the 4 corners. The difluent flow typical with intense storms is on full display. you still think the rgem/ggem are too far n or do they have a shot?...i hope not, might get into some mixing issues for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What a beauty. What a superb looking curved ageostrophic jet and the beginnings of a developing jet coupling aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 60º shouldn't be a problem. Whoopee. IND going with 52...seems too cool. 900 mb temps reach 10-12C...granted the amount of mixing doesn't look ideal but that low level inversion looks overdone like we've seen more than once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro.. Any thoughts on the track..You think this trending is legit and will hold. How about TSSN or Thundersleet for SEMI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The mass amount of jet stream divergence ahead of the ejecting trough is spectacular over the 4 corners. The difluent flow typical with intense storms is on full display. hopefully we can buy that UA pattern in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Baro.. Any thoughts on the track..You think this trending is legit and will hold. How about TSSN or Thundersleet for SEMI? Yeah I think it is legitimate. I always thought the suppressed solutions near the IA/MO border were just that--too suppressed. Currently I think the RGEM is too far N though. NAM may come N another run--for now I think a good track is close to the GFS--maybe a tick N--but with beefier WAA like the NAM. The extreme wind fields and no snow pack will really enhance the WAA--so solutions which depict an amplified shortwave ridge ahead of the main wave are most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DTX maintained the watch for all counties in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 you still think the rgem/ggem are too far n or do they have a shot?...i hope not, might get into some mixing issues for a time. I think they are a tad too amped--but we will have to watch trends. Right now the storm is still stronger in the mountains that any current op guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 SD just lofted up the blizzard warning. I would not be surprised if some locations in MN do the same. Wind fields are on the edge of blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 looks like MKE went with 5-9" with .25 of ice sounds like a real mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah I think it is legitimate. I always thought the suppressed solutions near the IA/MO border were just that--too suppressed. Currently I think the RGEM is too far N though. NAM may come N another run--for now I think a good track is close to the GFS--maybe a tick N--but with beefier WAA like the NAM. The extreme wind fields and no snow pack will really enhance the WAA--so solutions which depict an amplified shortwave ridge ahead of the main wave are most likely. Couldn't the early band of heavy snow be an inhibiting factor for the WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 60º shouldn't be a problem. Whoopee. Hitting a couple buckets of balls and then grilling a fat medium rare rib eye doesn't sound like toooo bad of a sunday afternoon alternative I guess. I'd trade you my forecast for yours tomorrow if I could. Inch of slop and rain doesn't excite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think they are a tad too amped--but we will have to watch trends. Right now the storm is still stronger in the mountains that any current op guidance. All depends on where it enters the Plains. My hunch now is it comes into the plains farther to the north because of it being stronger which should equal more ridging ahead of it in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 looks like MKE went with 5-9" with .25 of ice sounds like a real mess On the Kush Bong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hitting a couple buckets of balls and then grilling a fat medium rare rib eye doesn't sound like toooo bad of a sunday afternoon alternative I guess. I'd trade you my forecast for yours tomorrow if I could. Inch of slop and rain doesn't excite me. Heh, only a goat ranch or two is open here. Plus the ground is pretty water logged from the disaster melt. Of course I grill ribeyes when it's 20º outside...but I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 im on the vicodine valum and home brew bong giddie up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 To my defense, Bow told me that the EURO QPF inside 48 hours was one of the worst models so I went with it. Last time I trust him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.