MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yeah dry slut baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Every tick North on the NAM could mean more Ice for the Detroit Area. Ice up to if not more north of M59. Lets hope for more snow or sleet. Dont know too many folks who root for ice storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks for sure like a I69 special. Anyone thinking DTX will drop the southern counties from the WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 SREF hinting at nice snowfall rates during the morning in northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks for sure like a I69 special. Anyone thinking DTX will drop the southern counties from the WSW? With the ice storm potential and the uncertainty, I doubt it. That's assuming they maintain the watch and don't start upgrading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks for sure like a I69 special. Anyone thinking DTX will drop the southern counties from the WSW? Lenawee and Monroe county will be dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Whoever is south of the front, be prepared for temps rising faster and farther than progged. It gets quite warm aloft and given LL wind fields, I have to think some of that is going to try to mix down. edit: Looks like the offices are trying to account for this. Still might not be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Temps below freezing during the heavy precip as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yeah dry slut baby Only when its cold enough for snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Every tick North on the NAM could mean more Ice for the Detroit Area. Ice up to if not more north of M59. Lets hope for more snow or sleet. Dont know too many folks who root for ice storms Nearly all of Detroit metro goes plain rain on this run by the looks of it with the ice along and north of i69 transitioning towards snow in the thumb. Even Grand Rapids changes over to plain rain i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With the ice storm potential and the uncertainty, I doubt it. That's assuming they maintain the watch and don't start upgrading. ? Most of the models are coming to a general agreement to a northern shift in track? The NAM placing that heavy axis just north of Flint. Yea its the NAM 18z but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not a good run for Detroit points south...not bad for 59 to 69. Still a solid 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lenawee and Monroe county will be dropped I say up to Wayne or even Oakland. WWA looks like a long shot based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks like a big hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Whoever is south of the front, be prepared for temps rising faster and farther than progged. It gets quite warm aloft and given LL wind fields, I have to think some of that is going to try to mix down. edit: Looks like the offices are trying to account for this. Still might not be enough. Yeah there's gonna be a dramatic temp contrast to be sure over Illinois and Iowa. I think far southeast Iowa may have another shot at 70, while northern Iowa gets a potentially damaging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Can't wait to to do this all over again next week. win some like the blizzard and lose some like this and the dec storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I say up to Wayne or even Oakland. WWA looks like a long shot based on this run. Not Oakland. Northern part of the county will still get warning criteria winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Setting my SmartModel to hourly runs now, for selected cities to see how the values are trending. Just looking at 19Z output. Still showing the heaviest snow locations Oshkosh, Minneapolis, LaCrosse. Still been holding steady for around 15" of snow, with a period of 1.5 to 1.8" snow rates per hour. Starting to hint at FZRA for Madison and Milwaukee areas with 6-10" snow and .5" of Ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ? Most of the models are coming to a general agreement to a northern shift in track? The NAM placing that heavy axis just north of Flint. Yea its the NAM 18z but..... EURO and GGEM were still colder. Not that it's infallible, but when the EURO speaks, people listen. If they maintain the watch, which is already a sign of their uncertainty, I doubt they drop any counties. If they feel like upgrading with the afternoon package, then Detroit-Ann Arbor south may be going into advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not Oakland. Northern part of the county will still get warning criteria winter weather thats pushing it..but you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks like a big hit here And what's more special is that the 18z NAM run on the day before big storm is usually the one that goes crazy SE and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 thats pushing it..but you could be right. Not really. I think its a lock almost for a warning to be issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO and GGEM were still colder. Not that it's infallible, but when the EURO speaks, people listen. If they maintain the watch, which is already a sign of their uncertainty, I doubt they drop any counties. If they feel like upgrading with the afternoon package, then Detroit-Ann Arbor south may be going into advisories. 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nearly all of Detroit metro goes plain rain on this run by the looks of it with the ice along and north of i69 transitioning towards snow in the thumb. Even Grand Rapids changes over to plain rain i think. As long as the wind stays NE, I wouldn't bet on the surface temps in Detroit getting much above 32F. Maybe a degree or two for awhile. Low level cold air has a tendency to stay in place with NE surface winds and a high north of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well Prinsburgwx--I may need to adjust my thinking from last night and include you in the potential thundersnow. This storm is wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 thats pushing it..but you could be right. If this run of the NAM were to verify, I think Oakland county would definitely see enough ice for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well to all who get crushed enjoy. Looking as if my area gets a glancing blow..ill take rain over ice any day. On to the next float in this parade of storms. Maybe tonights runs will shift south by 70 miles who knows at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I say up to Wayne or even Oakland. WWA looks like a long shot based on this run. My hunch is advisories for i94 and the row of counties just north of that ( 3rd row in MI ) and warning north of there. If the 00z runs continue this trend then fully expect to see the counties along the state line to be dropped from the watch and maybe even up to i94 which may not even need a advisory. Again that is if this north trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah there's gonna be a dramatic temp contrast to be sure over Illinois and Iowa. I think far southeast Iowa may have another shot at 70, while northern Iowa gets a potentially damaging ice storm. I think we have a good chance to approach 60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think we have a good chance to approach 60 here. Why i am now hoping this thing comes north another 100 miles or so. I'll take that over a cold rain/ice any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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