Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What wil KLOT do with the Winter storm watch that it has in place for its northern tier on counties. I would think they will go with a WWA for 1-3 inches followed pby ice and then plain rain> Any thoughts? Sounds like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Completely incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What are we looking at for maximum snowfall potential across SD, MN, and WI? The high end of the range from any statements I've read so far is 14". Are many 15-20"...or more amounts likely? Right now my forecast is showing 8-12" through Sunday afternoon with no amounts predicted yet for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 He must of meant 48 hrs out the past 3 months in Big Money events and even then lol.. Euro normally has the better storm track record so its prob no surprise it can get QPF better especially 48hrs out. I'm out to go fall in a lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DT used to be big on not using the Euro inside 72 hours, no? Regardless, it's statistically proven that the model is superior with QPF inside 48 and 24 hours. Comments to the contrary are wrong and dumb. Yeah statistically it is. Every storm is different though. Euro has had some high profile busts on big storms this winter within 48. I know you know--but all models do have their issues and they have to be used considering the height field setup, dynamics, known bias if any, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 what is the euro qpf total for kbuf? thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah statistically it is. Every storm is different though. Euro has had some high profile busts on big storms this winter within 48. I know you know--but all models do have their issues and they have to be used considering the height field setup, dynamics, known bias if any, etc. Sure and agreed. Euro was awful with a couple of the hybrid clippers of this past December in MBY...until it caught on 24 or so hours out from the event. Regardless, baseless claims made that it is "the worst" from 48 hours and in are just not correct. Alas, may we move on from this and get back to the storm at hand. Nice event for some upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 what is the euro qpf total for kbuf? thanks! Curious the precip for msp grr and la crosse.and thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Sure and agreed. Euro was awful with a couple of the hybrid clippers of this past December in MBY...until it caught on 24 or so hours out from the event. Regardless, baseless claims made that it is "the worst" from 48 hours and in are just not correct. Alas, may we move on from this and get back to the storm at hand. Nice event for some upcoming. I didn't see those comments regarding it being the worst. Yeah that is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sref mean stronger & little more north at 15z 30hr compared to 36hr 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sref mean stronger & little more north at 15z 30hr compared to 36hr 09z Yeah much stronger. 992 in central IA. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sref mean stronger & little more north at 15z 30hr compared to 36hr 09z I along with others have said it before, but many thanks for those images you post of the SREF, GGEM, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 T4/Toronto blizzard, Here's the 12z GGEM ensemble mean QPF distribution valid 12z Mon. Unlike the OP, we're well on the good side of the 10mm contour. Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Curious the precip for msp grr and la crosse.and thanks. BUF: 0.34" MSP: 1.23" GRR: 0.78" Not sure what's the airport code for La Crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 BUF: 0.34" MSP: 1.23" GRR: 0.78" Not sure what's the airport code for La Crosse. KLSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 rain please keep coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I along with others have said it before, but many thanks for those images you post of the SREF, GGEM, etc. welcome, i enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Very intense frontogenesis-driven lead band. Also some very weak (negative) vorticity overhead at the same time, suggesting that there's some potential for CSI or even a bit of upright instability. There's likely to be a very intense ageostrophic circulation with it, especially since we're also going to be dealing with melting and evaporational cooling, which will help drive it further. Would not be surprised to see a burst of very heavy snow with some embedded thunder for about a 3 hour period tomorrow morning over any one area that gets into the band. After that, areas in Southern Wisconsin and far N. IL will probably see some significant ice. Problem there too will be fresh snowcover that may end up holding temps at or below freezing and setting up a prolonged period of FZRA/FZDZ. I am really rooting for the thundersnow here too. The coupling aloft with the front and height falls associated with the extreme ascent in the mid levels looks good for both elevated and potential slantwise convection. I am pretty excited. It has been years since I have heard TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KLSE Thanks! 12z Euro QPF for KLSE is 1.16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 rain please keep coming north With any luck the low will track to MN and the UP of MI. I'll take a nice warmer day over a cold rain or ice anytime. If it is not gonna snow then lets get this thing as far north as possible. Maybe we can get a boomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 15z SREF came in quite moist for YYZ. About 0.75" for the mean. Tough to give the SREFS much credence considering how poorly they did with the GHD blizzard, but that might be comparing apples and oranges. Then they were on the south side of guidance, now they're on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 BUF: 0.34" MSP: 1.23" GRR: 0.78" Not sure what's the airport code for La Crosse. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is this looking like a rain event for Chicago city south? I'm sure the Skilldog from WGN is having heart palpatations since he can never get enough snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 HPC siding with the wetter NCEP models per their disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Absolute rippage at MSP on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 FWIW...18z NAM coming in stronger, warmer and a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is this looking like a rain event for Chicago city south? I'm sure the Skilldog from WGN is having heart palpatations since he can never get enough snow. Chicago metro is right in the transition zone. Expect more snow/mix the farther north you go but eventually transitioning to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With any luck the low will track to MN and the UP of MI. I'll take a nice warmer day over a cold rain or ice anytime. If it is not gonna snow then lets get this thing as far north as possible. Maybe we can get a boomer. This! NAM going one step closer to hardly any snow and then hopefully we dry slut it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hpc prob of >.25 ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.