Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Anyone got KLSE from EURO? Thanks SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.5 -0.2 1019 62 62 0.01 557 542 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -1.7 -1.7 1011 88 99 0.40 553 544 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.4 -3.5 1006 88 97 0.44 548 543 MON 06Z 21-FEB -3.8 -4.4 1006 85 43 0.13 541 536 MON 12Z 21-FEB -4.4 -7.7 1008 85 36 0.04 538 531 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.6 -10.0 1011 77 59 0.05 536 527 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -6.1 -11.5 1014 81 95 0.05 533 523 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -8.6 -12.3 1018 86 90 0.04 537 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 is there any chance we avoid ice here and go with sleet and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks a lot chi storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Expect nothing less with the model differences. Normally I would trust the euro the most but I think it may be out to lunch with this one. Nam/ ggem and gfs is further north with more precip and stronger low. Ate those hrw and the arr hi res models products of the Nam? I've noticed those have been pretty accurate as of late. Also does the euro have heavier precip north of Detroit like the ncep and rgem does? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Regardless, it looks like accumulating snow. So we should be grateful for that. But it would be nice to get a bigger storm in before the winter's done. I think the strength of the SE ridge will bump this more north JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Though these totals are likely inflated the 12z GFS and NAM numbers for MPX are 21.1" and 16.2". And if the GFS is right about the next storm, it shows 10.5" here. Looks like they'll have to raise those flood predictions even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I don't buy the EURO weakening so fast and losing the precip shield that fast. GFS/NAM and the hi-res models show the storm stronger and a bit slower, hence more QPF. EURO isn't get for QPF within 48 hours anyways. I guess it's one of the worst models QPF wise inside 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And at least the northern row of counties here in IN according to HPC current probability progs. I'm ready for spring and t storms. Winter storm watch from Elkhart eastward. Big question is going to be how long that burst of snow lasts, and it's certainly possible that the precip type flops around enough to prevent major icing but there's at least some chance it could be significant before temps rise enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is there a rule for when "the king" (EURO) and the LOLGAPS agree on a solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Latest updated snow forecasts for MKE area; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What does the second wave look like on the Euro for PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think the strength of the SE ridge will bump this more north JMO Mets in the NE thread seem to like the further north solution. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 clown maps for ice...use with caution as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 is there any chance we avoid ice here and go with sleet and snow? Best case scenario for you is if you somehow manage to go above freezing. I see no way to avoid a complete changeover from snow. Mid to low level temps are simply too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 4km WRF -NMM shows a nice line of low-topped convection racing through Iowa tomorrow afternoon. Looking forward to seeing some towering cumulus for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Experimental HPC fzra probabilities http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_zr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 T4/Toronto blizzard, Here's the 12z GGEM ensemble mean QPF distribution valid 12z Mon. Unlike the OP, we're well on the good side of the 10mm contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I don't buy the EURO weakening so fast and losing the precip shield that fast. GFS/NAM and the hi-res models show the storm stronger and a bit slower, hence more QPF. EURO isn't get for QPF within 48 hours anyways. I guess it's one of the worst models QPF wise inside 48 hrs. Completely incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If the storm isn't as strong the WAA won't be as strong, even if the QPF is lower, it may save people who want all Snow from ZR/PL. That's if and only if the EURO is correct. guess we will have to wait for the next run for continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Completely incorrect. Pretty graphics. I'm not sure where this whole thing about the Euro not being good inside of 24 or 48 hours came from. Seems to be as good or better than other models on average. Now, once inside of 12-18 hours, I prefer using other things but not because the Euro is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Completely incorrect. oh snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Pretty graphics. I'm not sure where this whole thing about the Euro not being good inside of 24 or 48 hours came from. Seems to be as good or better than other models on average. Now, once inside of 12-18 hours, I prefer using other things but not because the Euro is bad. DT used to be big on not using the Euro inside 72 hours, no? Regardless, it's statistically proven that the model is superior with QPF inside 48 and 24 hours. Comments to the contrary are wrong and dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 One more for giggles. 24 hours out in the Midwest region, scores for the past 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I am liking what I am seeing after getting caught up on the latest 12z stuff. Nice to see the NAM sniffing reality for the first time and the GFS op lining up more with its ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So much fail in this post as proven above^.. And I thought you didn't want that much snow? In Moneyman's defense, it could be an off run. The issue is how it performs over a longer period of time inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 In Moneyman's defense, it could be an off run. The issue is how it performs over a longer period of time inside of 48 hours. Yep, all the models have hiccups every now and then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DT used to be big on not using the Euro inside 72 hours, no? Regardless, it's statistically proven that the model is superior with QPF inside 48 and 24 hours. Comments to the contrary are wrong and dumb. Yeah it might've been DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah it might've been DT. I'm pretty sure it was. Of course that was back in the day when we only got 24 hour increments...so I guess there was some validity to that thought in the short range. Not so much now I guess, but it's not perfect just like every other model. But I'd still lean in its direction more times than naught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What wil KLOT do with the Winter storm watch that it has in place for its northern tier of counties. I would think they will go with a WWA for 1-3 inches followed by ice and then plain rain> Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 T4/Toronto blizzard, Here's the 12z GGEM ensemble mean QPF distribution valid 12z Mon. Unlike the OP, we're well on the good side of the 10mm contour. Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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