kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What's the temps (850mb and 2m) like for Detroit. 850s DET -2.9 and below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 850's are below 0 for most of the precip. 2M temps: HR 30: 32ish HR 36 and beyond below 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 850s DET -2.9 and below Nice, but I would imagine QPF is less, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice, but I would imagine QPF is less, yes? so far 0.74 and thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 YZZ is between .25 and .5 it looks like. Don't have the exact totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Kab, how much here (FLD)? Map I have is .75-1, but sometimes this is less then what the actual output is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KDET MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.1 -2.9 1013 88 98 0.15 553 543 MON 06Z 21-FEB -3.3 -2.5 1009 93 97 0.35 551 544 MON 12Z 21-FEB -5.4 -4.9 1011 88 52 0.24 547 539 MON 18Z 21-FEB -5.2 -5.7 1014 71 43 0.00 545 534 KDTW MON 00Z 21-FEB -1.7 -2.3 1012 88 98 0.15 554 544 MON 06Z 21-FEB -3.1 -1.0 1008 93 97 0.34 551 545 MON 12Z 21-FEB -4.8 -3.9 1011 88 42 0.25 548 539 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.8 -4.7 1014 73 49 0.00 546 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Have the QPF totals for YYZ yet? 0.31". It had 0.38" from last night's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KFLD SUN 18Z 20-FEB -0.1 -2.9 1015 84 98 0.09 553 542 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.4 -6.0 1010 92 90 0.50 550 542 MON 06Z 21-FEB -3.0 -6.1 1009 89 73 0.22 545 538 MON 12Z 21-FEB -4.8 -7.7 1011 83 32 0.04 541 532 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.9 -8.5 1013 73 45 0.02 540 529 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -5.0 -11.4 1014 74 78 0.03 538 526 Kab, how much here (FLD)? Map I have is .75-1, but sometimes this is less then what the actual output is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 YZZ is between .25 and .5 it looks like. Don't have the exact totals. When the exact amounts come out I would really appreciate if you could post it. Thanks! NVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 For the Toronto area, it's the GFS/NAM/UKMET vs RGEM/GGEM/ECMWF. It's going to be interesting to see which side comes out the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0.31". It had 0.38" from last night's 00z run. Sucks when the best model has the most paltry amounts. With the low tracking the way Moneyman described it (into WNY) I would have thought amounts would have increased, considering I believe the 0z run kept the low in C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 euro FSD SUN 12Z 20-FEB -2.8 -0.7 1010 91 99 0.15 554 546 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -2.4 -0.4 1002 95 86 0.54 547 546 MON 00Z 21-FEB -3.6 -6.7 1003 93 75 0.26 538 536 MON 06Z 21-FEB -6.1 -10.6 1009 90 79 0.12 535 528 MON 12Z 21-FEB -8.4 -13.3 1012 87 86 0.05 533 523 MON 18Z 21-FEB -8.4 -15.0 1017 84 93 0.03 534 521 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -11.4 -15.3 1021 83 74 0.01 540 524 MKT SUN 18Z 20-FEB -3.0 -2.1 1008 89 100 0.51 550 543 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.5 -3.9 1003 89 75 0.41 543 540 MON 06Z 21-FEB -4.5 -7.4 1005 87 64 0.14 537 533 MON 12Z 21-FEB -5.8 -9.9 1007 86 93 0.12 534 528 MON 18Z 21-FEB -6.4 -11.1 1011 82 92 0.11 532 523 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -7.6 -12.9 1016 82 81 0.08 534 522 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -12.3 -13.9 1020 87 62 0.01 540 525 MSP SUN 18Z 20-FEB -2.9 -4.9 1012 80 100 0.17 549 540 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.8 -8.2 1006 84 97 0.51 544 538 MON 06Z 21-FEB -5.3 -10.6 1009 82 89 0.24 537 530 MON 12Z 21-FEB -6.8 -12.6 1010 80 90 0.12 534 526 MON 18Z 21-FEB -7.0 -13.2 1014 72 94 0.08 533 522 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -7.6 -13.8 1017 78 85 0.10 534 521 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -13.1 -14.7 1020 87 74 0.01 539 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Just pushed out another SmartModel run as of 16Z, Looking at the Detroit area for around 3-5" of snow followed by around .4" of FZRA. I got the FZRA starting from 05Z to 13Z on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 so far 0.74 and thats it Meh, a 0.10" decrease from last run. Too bad it's somewhat out of an outlier on this set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I actually meant S. PA, not NY. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 For the Toronto area, it's the GFS/NAM/UKMET vs RGEM/GGEM/ECMWF. It's going to be interesting to see which side comes out the winner. Considering how EC humps the GGEM I think you can forget about any WSW this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Very intense frontogenesis-driven lead band. Also some very weak (negative) vorticity overhead at the same time, suggesting that there's some potential for CSI or even a bit of upright instability. There's likely to be a very intense ageostrophic circulation with it, especially since we're also going to be dealing with melting and evaporational cooling, which will help drive it further. Would not be surprised to see a burst of very heavy snow with some embedded thunder for about a 3 hour period tomorrow morning over any one area that gets into the band. After that, areas in Southern Wisconsin and far N. IL will probably see some significant ice. Problem there too will be fresh snowcover that may end up holding temps at or below freezing and setting up a prolonged period of FZRA/FZDZ. Just getting caught up on the thread but was gonna post about the ice threat. I'd watch it closely in the northern 2 or 3 rows of counties in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 From the 12z GFS and WRF-NAM model runs, it looks like the best potential for a lethal ice storm is right along the Ohio/Michigan/Indiana border. Possibly a swath of 1/3" to 1/2" of ice in that region by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I actually meant S. PA, not NY. Sorry about that. Ok, that makes sense then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Sucks when the best model has the most paltry amounts. With the low tracking the way Moneyman described it (into WNY) I would have thought amounts would have increased, considering I believe the 0z run kept the low in C PA. I agree. I guess the weakening of the low as it heads east towards PA and the track are big factors in the paltry QPF from the Euro for us. Right now, I have to see the 00z runs tonight to see which side gives in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just getting caught up on the thread but was gonna post about the ice threat. I'd watch it closely in the northern 2 or 3 rows of counties in IL. And at least the northern row of counties here in IN according to HPC current probability progs. I'm ready for spring and t storms. Winter storm watch from Elkhart eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Anyone got KLSE from EURO? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Anyone got KLSE from EURO? Thanks ORD? Thanks a bunch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I agree. I guess the weakening of the low as it heads east towards PA and the track are big factors in the paltry QPF from the Euro for us. Right now, I have to see the 00z runs tonight to see which side gives in. Regardless, it looks like accumulating snow. So we should be grateful for that. But it would be nice to get a bigger storm in before the winter's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Sucks when the best model has the most paltry amounts. With the low tracking the way Moneyman described it (into WNY) I would have thought amounts would have increased, considering I believe the 0z run kept the low in C PA. it doesnt track into WNY at all. its well south, and goes through the meat grinder of a PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So now we have the NAM/GFS/UKMET/GGEM vs. the EURO/NAVY. YUCK!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ORD? Thanks a bunch.. SUN 18Z 20-FEB 2.1 4.1 1013 90 85 0.23 558 548 MON 00Z 21-FEB 2.3 6.3 1004 96 88 0.18 556 552 MON 06Z 21-FEB 0.5 5.5 1004 96 81 0.25 551 548 MON 12Z 21-FEB -1.2 3.0 1007 90 51 0.02 547 542 MON 18Z 21-FEB -0.9 1.1 1009 81 73 0.01 545 538 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -1.6 -2.9 1011 84 79 0.03 541 532 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -3.2 -7.7 1014 84 64 0.04 538 527 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -5.9 -10.0 1018 83 65 0.03 542 527 TUE 18Z 22-FEB -2.1 -10.3 1023 63 56 0.01 547 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Considering how EC humps the GGEM I think you can forget about any WSW this afternoon. For now at least. If the RGEM/GGEM budge and come into line with the NAM/GFS, then I could see them issue a WSW late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 SUN 18Z 20-FEB 2.1 4.1 1013 90 85 0.23 558 548 MON 00Z 21-FEB 2.3 6.3 1004 96 88 0.18 556 552 MON 06Z 21-FEB 0.5 5.5 1004 96 81 0.25 551 548 MON 12Z 21-FEB -1.2 3.0 1007 90 51 0.02 547 542 MON 18Z 21-FEB -0.9 1.1 1009 81 73 0.01 545 538 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -1.6 -2.9 1011 84 79 0.03 541 532 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -3.2 -7.7 1014 84 64 0.04 538 527 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -5.9 -10.0 1018 83 65 0.03 542 527 TUE 18Z 22-FEB -2.1 -10.3 1023 63 56 0.01 547 529 Thanks Chi-Storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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