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Feb. 19th-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Central/Western States

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WxMidwest

WxMidwest

Posted
Posted

This is gonna be one of those Lows that if it tracks 75 miles More S or N, then it will have huge implications on P-Type. Tomorrow's runs should be critical... I may try to position myself somewhere from Madison to La Crosse... If Northern Ill is on the cusp, KRFD, I may just be staying here, I Guess we will see..

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

Did it show a general idea of where the 850mb line set up?

SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -1.6    -2.7    1019      69     100    0.03     556     541    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -0.9    -0.9    1008      80      86    0.15     554     547    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -0.5     5.3    1000      94      86    0.28     550     550    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -2.8    -0.6    1006      90      29    0.15     546     541    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -4.4    -6.2    1012      73      32    0.01     544     535

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Cobb MPX

GFS: 15.5

Nam: 11.7

A lot of variability and questions to be answered still. NAM shows a deep S track can still yield a strong defo band displaced farther N due to intensity--GFS is the northern solution and still pounds the cities. Also all guidance showing some impressive elevated moist conditional instability and potential for convective snow showers. That will add to the variability.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

Chi, can you post the EURO output for here? Thanks bud.

SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -0.8    -2.8    1011      94     100    0.42     551     543    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -1.7    -4.0    1005      95      96    0.46     548     544    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -3.0    -6.2    1005      88      65    0.20     542     538    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -5.8    -9.5    1011      82      74    0.05     540     531    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -6.0   -10.3    1016      67      77    0.02     540     527

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

That would be great, Please check RFD, MSN, Dubuque, & LSE. Thanks...

RFD:

SUN 12Z 20-FEB   0.1     0.7    1017      86     100    0.15     560     547    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB   4.4     5.9    1005      85      96    0.23     557     552    
MON 00Z 21-FEB   7.3     7.5     998      91      77    0.26     553     555    
MON 06Z 21-FEB   0.2     4.8    1001      95      28    0.40     548     547    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -2.2    -3.8    1008      89      19    0.02     545     539    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -0.4    -7.3    1011      65      46    0.01     544     535    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -4.5   -10.1    1016      70      68    0.01     539     527    
TUE 06Z 22-FEB  -6.8   -11.7    1021      73      60    0.01     540     524

MSN:

SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -1.2    -0.6    1018      74      98    0.02     558     544    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB   0.5     0.3    1007      94     100    0.39     554     548    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -0.1     2.2    1002      94      88    0.29     550     548    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -2.1    -1.2    1004      90      33    0.22     544     541    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -4.6    -7.7    1010      84      27    0.03     542     534    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -4.1   -10.8    1014      68      33    0.02     541     530    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -7.6   -10.7    1018      72      87    0.01     538     524

LSE:

SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -1.7    -1.1    1016      70      97    0.03     556     543    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -1.9    -2.3    1008      93      99    0.64     551     545    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -1.8    -3.1    1003      90      89    0.23     546     543    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -5.1    -8.1    1007      83      71    0.10     540     534    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -6.6   -11.1    1012      81      75    0.05     538     529    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -6.4   -12.5    1017      65      78    0.03     538     525    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -7.7   -13.0    1019      70      90    0.01     537     522

DBQ:

SUN 12Z 20-FEB   0.5     1.7    1014      89      97    0.20     560     548    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB   4.2     5.2    1004      95      81    0.29     555     552    
MON 00Z 21-FEB   7.9     7.5     997      95      70    0.16     551     554    
MON 06Z 21-FEB   0.2     2.2    1002      93      26    0.21     546     544    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -2.4    -5.4    1008      89      19    0.02     544     537    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -1.7    -8.4    1012      68      42    0.02     542     532    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -4.1   -11.0    1017      68      66    0.01     539     526    
TUE 06Z 22-FEB  -8.2   -12.8    1022      72      78    0.00     539     521    
TUE 12Z 22-FEB -10.4   -12.8    1027      77      79    0.01     544     523

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

few cities for my local area euro qpf

MKT

SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -1.2	-2.5	1013  	87 	100	0.16 	554 	544	
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -3.1	-3.1	1006  	90  	87	0.58 	548 	543	
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -2.8	-6.0	1004  	89  	97	0.17 	541 	538	
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -5.0   -11.3	1010  	86  	87	0.17 	538 	530	
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -7.5   -13.2	1015  	84  	90	0.06 	537 	525	
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -7.5   -14.0	1018  	74  	94	0.03 	536 	522	
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -7.9   -15.4	1021  	80  	96	0.03 	534 	518	


MSP

SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -2.5	-4.1	1015  	79  	98	0.04 	553 	540	
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -3.5	-5.2	1010  	87  	99	0.49 	547 	540	
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -3.0	-8.8	1006  	82  	99	0.25 	542 	537	
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -6.3   -12.3	1012  	82  	90	0.22 	537 	528	
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -8.2   -13.6	1016  	79  	92	0.11 	536 	524	
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -7.7   -13.3	1019  	65  	99	0.05 	536 	521	
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -8.3   -14.7	1021  	77  	96	0.03 	535 	519


FSD

SUN 06Z 20-FEB  -1.2 	0.1	1017  	80  	73	0.04 	559 	545	
SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -2.8	-1.7	1010  	93  	97	0.30 	553 	545	
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -2.8	-3.0	1004  	94  	88	0.27 	546 	543	
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -4.8	-9.9	1008  	91  	78	0.20 	539 	533	
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -7.2   -11.8	1014  	87  	81	0.10 	538 	527	
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -9.5   -14.1	1017  	87  	76	0.02 	537 	524	
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -8.5   -15.6	1020  	80  	92	0.02 	535 	519

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

I see the ukie goes north with the first wave and actually stronger and a bit north with the second wave. If the first wave travels along I-80 or a bit more north, doesnt that mean that the second wave should go a bit further south, like the CMC is showing? I doout areas in michigan that get hammered with the first wave are going to get in on the second wave. Little confused as the models are all over the place.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

few cities for my local area euro qpf

MKT

SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -1.2	-2.5	1013  	87 	100	0.16 	554 	544	
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -3.1	-3.1	1006  	90  	87	0.58 	548 	543	
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -2.8	-6.0	1004  	89  	97	0.17 	541 	538	
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -5.0   -11.3	1010  	86  	87	0.17 	538 	530	
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -7.5   -13.2	1015  	84  	90	0.06 	537 	525	
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -7.5   -14.0	1018  	74  	94	0.03 	536 	522	
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -7.9   -15.4	1021  	80  	96	0.03 	534 	518	


MSP

SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -2.5	-4.1	1015  	79  	98	0.04 	553 	540	
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -3.5	-5.2	1010  	87  	99	0.49 	547 	540	
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -3.0	-8.8	1006  	82  	99	0.25 	542 	537	
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -6.3   -12.3	1012  	82  	90	0.22 	537 	528	
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -8.2   -13.6	1016  	79  	92	0.11 	536 	524	
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -7.7   -13.3	1019  	65  	99	0.05 	536 	521	
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -8.3   -14.7	1021  	77  	96	0.03 	535 	519


FSD

SUN 06Z 20-FEB  -1.2 	0.1	1017  	80  	73	0.04 	559 	545	
SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -2.8	-1.7	1010  	93  	97	0.30 	553 	545	
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -2.8	-3.0	1004  	94  	88	0.27 	546 	543	
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -4.8	-9.9	1008  	91  	78	0.20 	539 	533	
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -7.2   -11.8	1014  	87  	81	0.10 	538 	527	
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -9.5   -14.1	1017  	87  	76	0.02 	537 	524	
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -8.5   -15.6	1020  	80  	92	0.02 	535 	519

Thanks. I like the farther S track since we aren't so close to the mixed precip.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
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Posted

No.

GFS is about the same temp for MSN then MKE. Same with the NAM,.

Thank you! It will be a very difficult forecast for MKX, like it always seems to be with winter storms nowadays. December system? Very close gradient between 2 and 3 inch snowfalls and snowfalls of a foot. Groundhog Day? Extreme SE got close to 20 inches with the far NW sections getting a couple inches. This system????

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mnchaser

mnchaser

Posted
Posted

Am I right in thinking that Milwaukee has a better chance for greater snow than Madison right now? It seems the 850 mb 0C line runs NW to SE generally, in many cases from SC and SE Minnesota to just south of MKE?

It seems to always be a factor here in Mankato, this year we have been extremely lucky, But in past years we have had storms completely bust because we switch over to sleet or freezing rain. The Euro looks a bit better, but not by much with us hovering around the ole 540 mark, which again isn't the most accurate way to solely predict precip type, but it will definitely be a close call!

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

looks like the 15z sref mean came in a tad n compared to 09Z but this mean is made without the eta members so take it fwiw.

15z 54hr & 09z 60hr

I believe the SREF mean over at PSU includes the ETA, and that 15z mean is also further north than the 9z.

Not picking up on any model trends the last 48 hours. Seems one round of guidance is south, and the next run comes back north again, although in all circumstances the shifts haven't been drastic.

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

Could be the case where the second wave ends up stronger than the first? Still can't help but think of the dec 19 2008 storm as far as track and precip issues. Also I hope the same doesnt occur as with the feb 1st storm where it went further NW as time got closer. This first wave and the baroclinic zone doesnt seem as impressive so we will see.

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