WxMidwest Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z WRF Total QPF through 36 hours has 1+ QPF at least with another 12-14+ HRS of snow. Link: http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Awesome, Vernon County/La Crosse Counties look to be ground zero for QPF Maximums, thats where I'm headed. Hoping to find the correct mix of front end convective snows, Mix, and lazy dendrites at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hopefully you finally get your T-Snow that you missed out on during the blizzard. sleet.....per Skilling not a good snow formation set up. although I suspect far west and northwest areas have a much better chance of snow. I note Aleking is nowhere to be found which usually leads me to think non storm and rain in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sleet.....per Skilling not a good snow formation set up. Read Csnavy's post on the previous page.. "Very intense frontogenesis-driven lead band. Also some very weak (negative) vorticity overhead at the same time, suggesting that there's some potential for CSI or even a bit of upright instability. There's likely to be a very intense ageostrophic circulation with it, especially since we're also going to be dealing with melting and evaporational cooling, which will help drive it further. Would not be surprised to see a burst of very heavy snow with some embedded thunder for about a 3 hour period tomorrow morning over any one area that gets into the band. After that, areas in Southern Wisconsin and far N. IL will probably see some significant ice. Problem there too will be fresh snowcover that may end up holding temps at or below freezing and setting up a prolonged period of FZRA/FZDZ. " Edit: The far northern burbs will probably see the worst but I wouldn't be surprised if even you see an hour or two of some messy frozen precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 csnavy- Thanks for the info, hopefully that is how it goes down. Really looks like it will be a cement mixer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DDL, I think we are a good bet to ger a solid 10-14 inches of heavy cement. I rather stay all snow then switch to ice though. Can't stand ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 La Crosse Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a east wind between 10 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You see the clown maps> http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MKX Nice skid mark right across the midwest.... looks like MSP should also cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Read Csnavy's post on the previous page.. "Very intense frontogenesis-driven lead band. Also some very weak (negative) vorticity overhead at the same time, suggesting that there's some potential for CSI or even a bit of upright instability. There's likely to be a very intense ageostrophic circulation with it, especially since we're also going to be dealing with melting and evaporational cooling, which will help drive it further. Would not be surprised to see a burst of very heavy snow with some embedded thunder for about a 3 hour period tomorrow morning over any one area that gets into the band. After that, areas in Southern Wisconsin and far N. IL will probably see some significant ice. Problem there too will be fresh snowcover that may end up holding temps at or below freezing and setting up a prolonged period of FZRA/FZDZ. " Location will be very key with this storm. And I believe his location is Dekalb which is approx. 50 miles west of the city. Not sure when he references "northern Illinois" he is necessarily including far northeast Illinois. Certainly, your location is better then say...Lagrange or Aking's lakefront location. Still would not be surprised to see a sleet fest and then quickly over to rain and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 csnavy- Thanks for the info, hopefully that is how it goes down. Really looks like it will be a cement mixer here. This should get the 10+ inch storm out of the way... and maybe if you can knock out 20" be in the top ten snowiest winters.... andddd kill the 20"+ i had for you yet this winter in one storm with a ton of winter to go Kill 3 birds with one storm. Front and back loaded big winter was an easy call in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Location will be very key with this storm. And I believe his location is Dekalb which is approx. 50 miles west of the city. Not sure when he references "northern Illinois" he is necessarily including far northeast Illinois. Certainly, your location is better then say...Lagrange or Aking's lakefront location. Still would not be surprised to see a sleet fest and then quickly over to rain and drizzle. Yep, there is going to be a crazy gradient with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You see the clown maps> http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=MKX Nice skid mark right across the midwest.... looks like MSP should also cash in. I really enjoy your posts. It seems they have improved dramatically in the last day or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, if I had to make an educated guess, I'd say 3-4 inches with the initial band of snow before changing over to about .25" of freezing rain, with sleet mixing in. The final band of snow at the end will give us about 3 inches of snow, for a grand total of about 7 inches of snow and a quarter inch of ice. Road conditions Monday morning will be interesting. GFS corn cobb im looking at is pretty close to your thinking except a lot more freezing rain.. 3-4" then .67 fzra.. and a few inches of snow to end for 6.1 total. FZRA storm has been on my mind since early week and we're due for one... could be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I went to Home Depot last week and bought a huge bag of calcium chloride (haven't used it yet since it's been so warm). That's going to be history. And yeah, I broke my last ice scraper during the December 12th storm, so I'll need a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bow- I should have known better. Going to be good again for the snowmobile. The good thing is that there is plenty of room to put the new snow, enough melted off... Bad thing is the flooding potential just jumped another notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z GFS Cobb comes in with 7.8 in of snow in 3 hours at ORD.. Then a tenth of an inch of ice before the changeover to rain and 1/3 inch of plain rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I bought an ergonomic shovel at Menards, they had snowblowers but they weren't marked down enough for my cheap ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z ggem still pumped with qpf for msp...1.88 total Station ID: KMSP Lat: 44.88 Lon: -93.22 GGEM Model Run: 12Z 19 Feb 2011 HR VALID TMPF DWPF RELH DRCT SPED HGHT TMPC PMSL P06I P48I 24 FEB 20 12Z 22.39 19.17 87.21 86.49 11.14 539.81 -3.91 1018.93 0.01 0.00 30 FEB 20 18Z 25.46 22.14 87.03 82.01 20.62 542.00 -4.87 1011.22 0.55 0.00 36 FEB 21 00Z 27.55 23.90 85.96 85.15 29.34 539.22 -6.11 1003.67 0.63 0.00 42 FEB 21 06Z 27.00 23.11 85.11 83.30 26.42 534.12 -6.44 1001.46 0.33 0.00 48 FEB 21 12Z 24.37 19.95 83.08 66.67 23.91 531.41 -8.98 1003.14 0.18 1.70 54 FEB 21 18Z 24.71 19.43 80.09 59.63 20.43 528.25 -10.85 1006.74 0.08 1.78 60 FEB 22 00Z 24.44 19.87 82.48 47.02 17.76 526.86 -10.38 1010.69 0.07 1.85 66 FEB 22 06Z 21.79 17.30 82.55 58.03 10.23 526.89 -10.39 1016.77 0.02 1.88 72 FEB 22 12Z 20.25 16.80 86.25 75.22 5.18 526.55 -11.18 1019.44 0.01 1.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bow- I should have known better. Going to be good again for the snowmobile. The good thing is that there is plenty of room to put the new snow, enough melted off... Bad thing is the flooding potential just jumped another notch. Yeah should be an excellent snow for the trails. Nice the mounds got melted off because you had some pretty epic ones going with that hot start. Cobb thing shows 16" and .46 fzra qpf for you on gfs.. Then some more decent snow with that 2nd storm out there in fantasy. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=klse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z ggem still pumped with qpf for msp...1.88 total Station ID: KMSP Lat: 44.88 Lon: -93.22 GGEM Model Run: 12Z 19 Feb 2011 HR VALID TMPF DWPF RELH DRCT SPED HGHT TMPC PMSL P06I P48I 24 FEB 20 12Z 22.39 19.17 87.21 86.49 11.14 539.81 -3.91 1018.93 0.01 0.00 30 FEB 20 18Z 25.46 22.14 87.03 82.01 20.62 542.00 -4.87 1011.22 0.55 0.00 36 FEB 21 00Z 27.55 23.90 85.96 85.15 29.34 539.22 -6.11 1003.67 0.63 0.00 42 FEB 21 06Z 27.00 23.11 85.11 83.30 26.42 534.12 -6.44 1001.46 0.33 0.00 48 FEB 21 12Z 24.37 19.95 83.08 66.67 23.91 531.41 -8.98 1003.14 0.18 1.70 54 FEB 21 18Z 24.71 19.43 80.09 59.63 20.43 528.25 -10.85 1006.74 0.08 1.78 60 FEB 22 00Z 24.44 19.87 82.48 47.02 17.76 526.86 -10.38 1010.69 0.07 1.85 66 FEB 22 06Z 21.79 17.30 82.55 58.03 10.23 526.89 -10.39 1016.77 0.02 1.88 72 FEB 22 12Z 20.25 16.80 86.25 75.22 5.18 526.55 -11.18 1019.44 0.01 1.88 Can you tell me what it shows for YYZ. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 daddylonglegs you're avatar is distracting me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KDTX 191727 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1227 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 .AVIATION... WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD MIDDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL START TO MATERIALIZE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW AND LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Can you tell me what it shows for YYZ. Thanks yyz 0.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS corn cobb im looking at is pretty close to your thinking except a lot more freezing rain.. 3-4" then .67 fzra.. and a few inches of snow to end for 6.1 total. FZRA storm has been on my mind since early week and we're due for one... could be nasty. The reason I think about a quarter inch of freezing rain is I don't know how much freezing rain vs sleet we will get. It may well be that half that .67 freezing rain will actually be sleet. To me the main reason this storm would bust is if we get minor snow amounts and large amounts of sleet, or if we get rain at some point, which hopefully is out of the question at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yyz 0.42 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yep, there is going to be a crazy gradient with this one. IZZI in the LOT aviation update: SUSPECT RFD WILL START AS MORE OF A SN/PL THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TOWARD MORE FZRA THEN RA...WHILE JUST ABOUT ANY PRECIP TYPE IS POSSIBLE AT CHGO AREA TERMINALS BEFORE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN OCCURS SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT ONLY VERY SMALL TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL RESULT IN CHANGING P-TYPE WOULD EXPECT P-TYPE TO BE PRETTY VARIABLE BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ALL RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO just falls apart after hr 36. HR 36: 994 LOW C. IA HR 42: 1004 LOW N/C IL HR 48: 1004 LOW W.NY No other model weakens the storm that much, that quick. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12Z HIRESW NMM: ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO just falls apart after hr 36. HR 36: 994 LOW C. IA HR 42: 1004 LOW N/C IL HR 48: 1004 LOW W.NY No other model weakens the storm that much, that quick. Odd. What's the temps (850mb and 2m) like for Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Detroit guys will love the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO just falls apart after hr 36. HR 36: 994 LOW C. IA HR 42: 1004 LOW N/C IL HR 48: 1004 LOW W.NY No other model weakens the storm that much, that quick. Odd. Have the QPF totals for YYZ yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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