Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS is coming in a bit stronger/north so far through 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'd assume anything in the - is usually snow? Not necessarily in this case. Most of the WAA is taking place between 850mb and 700mb. That's why the NAM gave many areas a bunch of sleet versus snow despite 850mb temperatures below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'd assume anything in the - is usually snow? that or a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No surprise coming in stronger and warmer.. never fails nw nudges and waa always ftw.. Good thing i never expected the 6z to be right. I'd be a sad weenie. Euro was a throwout run, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If you compare 0z and 12z, 12z is maybe 10 miles farther north. Thought it was farther north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bleh, it looks like the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You guys think ice is a concern for la Crosse? This could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Oh my! GFS just cranked it up a notch here in MN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 What are the chances of a quarter inch of ice or more here? 50/50 proposition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM comes in north, RGEM comes in south by a bunch. If it wasn't for the gradient, it wouldn't matter much, but man does the RGEM put the squeeze on me. Add the 12z GFS to the NAM camp. The 12z UKMET is closer to the NAM and GFS. My prelim call for Toronto is 4-6", with the possibility of higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Sounds like the models are coming to an agreement on the track/strength as GFS/NAM/UKIE are all pretty similar. RGEM kinda as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So yeah, I'll give it to the 00z runs then I'm raising the white flag for hopes of a significant snow storm. So close and yet so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What are the chances of a quarter inch of ice or more here? 50/50 proposition? crazy corn cobb thing I was looking at has 13" of snow then .47 fzra and .10 sleet for mke.. 12z nam. then 5" of prob bs snow after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Very intense frontogenesis-driven lead band. Also some very weak (negative) vorticity overhead at the same time, suggesting that there's some potential for CSI or even a bit of upright instability. There's likely to be a very intense ageostrophic circulation with it, especially since we're also going to be dealing with melting and evaporational cooling, which will help drive it further. Would not be surprised to see a burst of very heavy snow with some embedded thunder for about a 3 hour period tomorrow morning over any one area that gets into the band. After that, areas in Southern Wisconsin and far N. IL will probably see some significant ice. Problem there too will be fresh snowcover that may end up holding temps at or below freezing and setting up a prolonged period of FZRA/FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Argh. I 96 through Michigan ALWAYS seems to be on the edge of good snows whether it's "just missing" us to the south or the rain/ice/snow line. That's why I was glad to move away from Eastern Pennsylvania. It was always "I 81"...here it's "I 96".and it seems to work out that way. Sigh. Another storm where I'm on edge until it actually starts to do something outside. End rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 MKE has just issued a Winter Storm Warning for the area. Part 1: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... SHEBOYGAN...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...WEST BEND... PORT WASHINGTON 949 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO BARABOO LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO BARABOO LINE. * WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. Southern Part: .A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CLASH WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WOULD THEN SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY... POSSIBLY ALL RAIN FOR A TIME AS TEMPERATURES RISE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING ONE QUARTER INCH. AREAS NORTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO LONE ROCK LINE MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS...WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK WOULD HAVE RELATIVELY LARGE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WIZ064>066-070>072-200000- /O.UPG.KMKX.WS.A.0002.110220T1200Z-110221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.W.0002.110220T1200Z-110222T0000Z/ JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA... BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA 949 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OR ALL RAIN FOR A TIME MID SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW IS LIKELY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES...THE LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH ONE QUARTER INCH IN SOME AREAS. * WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT ACROSS THE AREA... DUE TO SNOW AND POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW DURING THE MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 MKE AFD: .UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED ALL OF SOUTHERN WI TO WINTER STORM WARNING. IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC MOISTURE...4-5 G/KG AND VERTICAL MOTION...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE 30-50 UNITS. INITIAL LLJ WILL ENHANCE FORCING LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WI VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A RENEWED LLJ KEEPS THE FORCING GOING ALL DAY SUNDAY. THE RENEWED LLJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW SPINNING UP ACROSS IOWA. WETZEL INGREDIENT PLOTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. PARTS OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH COULD SEE OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE WITH THE TRICKIER THERMAL PROFILE THERE...WITH SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW. COLLAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Has potential to be one of the worst ice storms weve had in years. Keep in mind one constant all the models show is surface temps WILL stay below freezing the entire time. I just hope we can get enough white to cover the ground before the ice really sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Has potential to be one of the worst ice storms weve had in years. Keep in mind one constant all the models show is surface temps WILL stay below freezing the entire time. I just hope we can get enough white to cover the ground before the ice really sets in. And unlike the last one we had, the lakes won't protect us this time (on the eastside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Has potential to be one of the worst ice storms weve had in years. Keep in mind one constant all the models show is surface temps WILL stay below freezing the entire time. I just hope we can get enough white to cover the ground before the ice really sets in. I think north of 59 will be safe from the major Ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Man right on the line here. Heavy heavy precip rates though. Evaporitive cooling may play a role? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 crazy corn cobb thing I was looking at has 13" of snow then .47 fzra and .10 sleet for mke.. 12z nam. then 5" of prob bs snow after. Yeah, if I had to make an educated guess, I'd say 3-4 inches with the initial band of snow before changing over to about .25" of freezing rain, with sleet mixing in. The final band of snow at the end will give us about 3 inches of snow, for a grand total of about 7 inches of snow and a quarter inch of ice. Road conditions Monday morning will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You guys think ice is a concern for la Crosse? This could get ugly. A PL/ZR mix or PL is more likely, based off of the BUFKIT soundings, but this is after a large burst of heavy snow. As I mentioned above, there's going to be some very heavy snow with the f-gen band, especially in the 1-2 hours before the switch to sleet and freezing rain. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3" hr for a bit. After that, there's definitely enough warming aloft for some PL/+PL and maybe even some freezing rain, but the WCB is pointed far enough aloft that I doubt you stay straight freezing rain the entire time. 5-7" snow followed by some 1" of sleet or sleet/fzra slop, then a dose of 2-4" pure powder as the elongated deformation zone sets up and DGZs deepen quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Man, this is gonna be epic! We're gonna be roasting here in the thermal ridge with building cumulus, while just a few counties to the north glaze heavily in ice. Good luck to all you guys north. It looks like a very impressive snow is on the way from MSP to Green Bay. Moneyman looks "money" to me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I just hope this goes as planned. I rather stay all snow then get into an ice storm. Right now, I look to be on the very southern frindge between ice and a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 this is beautiful...front end nasty intense TSSN band ftw love how the 850mb temps cool from 6z to 12z tomorrow morning thanks to the ascent taking place and destabilizing the column. should be a fun few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Very intense frontogenesis-driven lead band. Also some very weak (negative) vorticity overhead at the same time, suggesting that there's some potential for CSI or even a bit of upright instability. There's likely to be a very intense ageostrophic circulation with it, especially since we're also going to be dealing with melting and evaporational cooling, which will help drive it further. Would not be surprised to see a burst of very heavy snow with some embedded thunder for about a 3 hour period tomorrow morning over any one area that gets into the band. After that, areas in Southern Wisconsin and far N. IL will probably see some significant ice. Problem there too will be fresh snowcover that may end up holding temps at or below freezing and setting up a prolonged period of FZRA/FZDZ. I was just looking at the IWX wrf and it shows and interesting bubble of <32 surface temps in N. IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If those localized areas of TSSN form in Northern Illinois, Snowfall rates will be epic for those 3-4 hours. Therefore, someone has the outside chance at seeing a decent snow before the MIX comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z WRF Total QPF through 36 hours has 1+ QPF at least with another 12-14+ HRS of snow. Link: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 this is beautiful...front end nasty intense TSSN band ftw love how the 850mb temps cool from 6z to 12z tomorrow morning thanks to the ascent taking place and destabilizing the column. should be a fun few hours. Hopefully you finally get your T-Snow that you missed out on during the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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