dissident Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 can't wait, I'm so excited not just because it makes everyone else who doesn't appreciate weather extremes miserable, but it looks to be the biggest storm so far for us and we've had a few large ones already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If the 725-800 layer is above freezing, but the 850's and surface are well below freezing, would that indicate some sleet maybe then? Yes, though if it's at/below 1*C then I wouldn't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If the 725-800 layer is above freezing, but the 850's and surface are well below freezing, would that indicate some sleet maybe then? Not sure what to look for when determining sleet, freezing rain etc. Yeah, sleet is more likely in that scenario. The elevated warm layer is displaced too far away from the surface for ZR. Water droplets are going to have a chance to refreeze before they hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 i'll be up in East Lansing by this afternoon, hopefully my drive back sunday isn't a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm running to Menards right now to find a snowblower... I'll blow out my back on this concrete. 14F right now out so plenty of cold air already in place.. "Manyrds'...nah.. I don't they let you return it if you operate if it fails, plus they have no shop to work on them. Go to a real shop for a two stage like Arines, JD or Toro where they repair them. Be prepared for price shock, a good 2 stage will set you back 1K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Our system's on shore, so the 12z runs should have all the sampling it needs. IF it missed anything then there's still the 00z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If last night's IWX WRF verifies, Detroit is Gold. 700, 850, and 2M temps all stay below zero throughout. Total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 FWIW, GEM's ensembles are pretty much in agreement with the OP run. GFS ensembles were similar to the 12z run, just a tiny bit further northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 After that nice warm up I am ready for spring and over snow/winter. So, I'm not too dissappointed this one is going to bypass me to the north. Toughest forecast for the big cities (IMO) is Detroit. Good luck with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 i'll be up in East Lansing by this afternoon, hopefully my drive back sunday isn't a mess. have a safe trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 how much zr for here boys and girls...do i need a generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Best RGEM/GGEM run I've seen ye: 12Z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 how much zr for here boys and girls...do i need a generator Per the NAM, you're going to see quite a bit (Through 30hr). http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kmsn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Power, HR 36-60 are near the bottom. That sounding goes from HR 0-60 and it updates about 1 HR after the NAM starts. Seems like RGEM has come back inline with other models. Good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Power, HR 36-60 are near the bottom. That sounding goes from HR 0-60 and it updates about 1 HR after the NAM starts. Ah thanks, that I didn't see. It's good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 11"of snow then .67" of freezing rain...that should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12Z NAM BUFKIT DET: 3.8" of snow...0.43" Freezing Rain....0.07"sleet DTW: 2.5" Snow...0.36" Freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Kab, what about FLD? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Best RGEM/GGEM run I've seen ye: 12Z RGEM: No liquid precip this run, just plenty of ice after our front thumping of snow. It's a slightly warmer variant of the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM clownage i'll get screwed somehow like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Kab, what about FLD? Thanks. I cannot find FLD on BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Try Oshkosh (OSH) it's about 15 miles NW of here, but it should work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Moneyman what does rgem look like for la crosse and there. I am on my phone can't get maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 WRF-NNM: HR 30: HR 36: HR 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Moneyman what does rgem look like for la crosse and there. I am on my phone can't get maps. Better yet, bookmark this http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Moneyman what does rgem look like for la crosse and there. I am on my phone can't get maps. Mostly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 WRF-NNM: HR 30: HR 36: HR 42: That's just the regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM comes in north, RGEM comes in south by a bunch. If it wasn't for the gradient, it wouldn't matter much, but man does the RGEM put the squeeze on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the h res 850 tmps on the 12z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the h res 850 tmps on the 12z rgem I'd assume anything in the - is usually snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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