Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I am discussing it because there is the potential there, and I was just making light of said potential. I know, I wasn't talking to any specific person. I want to at least wait until tonight's run until we start discussing who's screwed and who's not. In the mean time I just want to focus on the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM has been having issues with every single run, I wouldn't use it for much of anything on this. Whats been going on with the NAM as of lately? It cant seem to pick up on key pieces of the puzzle. Its been tossed in the trash run after run. So do we go with the High Res ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM is stronger, a bit warmer, but still a good hit here. Time for a quick nap before GFS comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM is north... Divided Snow Line clearly around 696 looks north of that. Maybe M59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM still gives us 4-8" TOTAL (lowest south, highest north), contaminated with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Reminds of the Feb 5th 2008 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM still gives us 4-8" TOTAL (lowest south, highest north), contaminated with ice. Some dryslot issues south of 94 for a time, but the orientation of the precip prevents it from being a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM Total QPF: No idea if that is all snow here or not (850 gets kinda close) but if it is snow, would be a good hit from la crosse to over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Feb 5th 2008 Winter Storm Snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS shows over a foot no problem here,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Feb 5th 2008 Winter Storm Snow totals. Other than minor tweaks that's EXACTLY what the 12z NAM snow depth map looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Feb 5th 2008 Winter Storm Snow totals. Identical....except Ice will be an issue around Dtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This nothing like the Super Tuesday storm guys... Totally different setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Game freaking over here... this is a monster just from the precip amts... and it looks like more later in the week.... You folks downstream are going to be underwater in March at this pace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS shows over a foot no problem here,,,,, NAM spits out 1.75 QPF for you. We'll have to check the soundings when it comes out in a bit, but it could be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Reminds of the Feb 5th 2008 storm. Yeah, I can see where you're getting that from with the two wave storm moving due E-W. The difference there was that the areas that got hit with mostly snow with wave 1 also got hit with mostly snow wave 2, which attm doesn't look like it's going to happen here. 12z NAM brought back the juice for mby after a skimpy couple of runs. Again, not picking up on any trends here. Seems to be just model noise that is amplified because of the fact that this is a tight gradient storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This nothing like the Super Tuesday storm guys... Totally different setups. Minus the severe weather oblivously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This nothing like the Super Tuesday storm guys... Totally different setups. There are some similarities to it. In any event, I was just comparing the snowfall total map from February 5th-6th, 2008 to the NAM's snow depth map, which is in fact a carbon copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm running to Menards right now to find a snowblower... I'll blow out my back on this concrete. 14F right now out so plenty of cold air already in place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Minus the severe weather oblivously And that the storm came out of the Southwest instead of the west, and the trough was sharper... There is really no similarities other than that map would agree with a NAM run, a model that hasn't been good all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I know this is different then the Feb 24th, 2007 ..but the amts could be similar depending on snow ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This nothing like the Super Tuesday storm guys... Totally different setups. Huh, I went to the NARR page and you're right, the trajectory was SW-NE with those waves. I sort of remember them as W-E for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I know this is different then the Feb 24th, 2007 ..but the amts could be similar depending on snow ratios I'm thinking about 8-14 from La Crosse to Dodge and points northward. If the EURO came in wetter then 12z and colder, I would probably raise them a bit, but who knows. NAM/GFS (0z/6z) do give us 16+ though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Huh, I went to the NARR page and you're right, the trajectory was SW-NE with those waves. I sort of remember them as W-E for some reason. Only at the surface and it was because the storm occluded and a new low formed at the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Identical....except Ice will be an issue around Dtown I was an issue then as well, the difference being it was ice to snow, not snow to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I know this is different then the Feb 24th, 2007 ..but the amts could be similar depending on snow ratios Actually, that one's pretty far up on the list of analogs... http://www.eas.slu.e.../continuity.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here is the 12z NAM soundings: (just change your code at the top) 1.75 QPF here, 850's and surface well below freezing. Ouch. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kmke.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here is the 12z NAM soundings: (just change your code at the top) 1.75 QPF here, 850's and surface well below freezing. Ouch. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_Kmke.txt Thanks. I've been trying to find that one for the longest. It's pretty good if you want a top-down sounding, which with this storm is probably the best thing to use when figuring out your precipitation type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM clownage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If the 725-800 layer is above freezing, but the 850's and surface are well below freezing, would that indicate some sleet maybe then? Not sure what to look for when determining sleet, freezing rain etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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