SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its gona be fun to watch todays models. At this point shifts in either direction can make or break us on the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well, if we see less snow we see more ice, which means a higher impact storm. But i agree I TOTALLY want as much snow as possible. Id prefer sleet over zr because sleet is white! yep..gota love living in natural screw zone. But hey Thundersleet could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not much from jB on twitter on the first wave. He is pretty adament that the ukie is right in with the second wave dropping good snows between 70-80. I don't have access to the big dog and was curious if anyone knows his thoughts on the first storm. He has had a rough stretch forecasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hmm, apparently areas north of I-96 and east of I-75 have no mixing issues on the 06z GFS. That area doesn't include metro airport of course, which explains hte brief period of freezing rain. (precip type in aforementioned areas were all snow before/after these frames) 45hr precipitaiton types... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=06&fhr=16&field=ptype 48hr precipitation types... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=06&fhr=17&field=ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yep..gota love living in natural screw zone. But hey Thundersleet could be possible. lol thats just the problem, we really dont live in a screwzone, and in fact are overdue to be screwed. Some get so hung up on the fact that we havent had the epic snowstorm here in ages, that they forget that in the grand scheme of weather, we really have not been getting screwed rather getting lucky the past several winters. This is especially true for me SE of Detroit. Climo dictates that this area should see less snow than Detroits immediate NW burbs, and we all should see much less than the high elevations of Oakland county, but that has not been the case in recent years. The only winter of the past decade I can think of when I was really screwed being south of Detroit compared to areas just north would be 2003-04, whereas that sort of thing happened all the time in the 1990s. The best storm to illustrate that would be Jan 1, 2008....but I made up for that with a jackpot snowstorm 2 months later. So bottom line...we actually ARE due to be screwed, and I just hope that this one is not it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On the 06z NAM, areas north of I-96 and I-696 have no mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I hate these types of storms.. Where 10 miles north its a whiteout...South its a God Darn Ice Storm..and where Im at is sleet. What a mixed bag. I do like the forecast DTX gave it makes sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 FWIW, areas south of M-59 are in the SPC's general thunder outlook tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And this all does remind me, when looking at the thicknesss values to dechiper the snow/ice/rain lines... *1300m (1000mb-850mb) thickness line gives you a rough estimate of where the rain & ice/snow line (for this particular storm, it will just be the rain & ice line) is. *2840m (850mb-700mb) thickness line gives you a rough estiamte of where the ice & snow line is. *5400m (1000mb-500mb) thickness line is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 give me my front end TSSN and I will be happy LOT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN AREA OF VERY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A CROSS SECTION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THICKNESS FIELD SHOWS A CLASSIC FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WITH NEGATIVE EPV IN THE LAYER DIRECTLY ABOVE THE AREA OF MAXIMUM FRONTOGENESIS. THE INTENSE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS FORCING...SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING. THE BIG QUESTION FROM ALL OF THIS IS THE PRECIP TYPE. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO SOME ADIABATIC COOLING THAT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS BAND THERE COULD BE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. LUCKILY...THIS BAND SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I was just catching up this morning and I want you Detroit guys to know that I'm feeling for you. My area was right on the edge for the blizzard and it's looking like your area is on the edge for this storm. We ended up with about 4" of snow, 3" inches of sleet, and a glaze of ice. Hopefully everything will shift just slightly south and you all will get a good thump of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Our system should be fully sampled this run (all 12z models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I hate these types of storms.. Where 10 miles north its a whiteout...South its a God Darn Ice Storm..and where Im at is sleet. What a mixed bag. I do like the forecast DTX gave it makes sense! Im going with 6-9 inches 59 North. 3-6 Inches 94 to 59 and 1-3 94 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 09Z SREF very similar to 03Z...looks great here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This is an I69 special for SEMI. The Tri County Detroit area appears ATM to get screwed. Screwed in what sense? That we don't get all snow? I am very certain we will be getting a lot of wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Screwed in what sense? That we don't get all snow? I am very certain we will be getting a lot of wintry precipitation. Around 94 corridor its going to be power outage galore even with 2-3 inches of snow its going to be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 FWIW, areas south of M-59 are in the SPC's general thunder outlook tomorrow. Worth alot actually because if we get thunder anything the precip rates will go up substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Around 94 corridor its going to be power outage galore even with 2-3 inches of snow its going to be a mess Yes, but I take the word screwed as in we get rain or no storm, I see neither happening unless you live just north of Toledo where you might get some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yes, but I take the word screwed as in we get rain or no storm, I see neither happening unless you live just north of Toledo where you might get some rain Toledo/Monroe south will be the "screw" zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's way too early to say what areas will and won't get screwed, especially with the latest trends. So I don't even get why we're discussing it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Screwed in what sense? That we don't get all snow? I am very certain we will be getting a lot of wintry precipitation. Yes. Call me a weenie! Greed is good....(not with cash- but with snow-and not the snow that gets you feeling like superman) Your right Stebo...Looks to be a solid event. Your thoughts on possible TSSN or Thundersleet.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM's coming in stronger, warmer and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's way too early to say what areas will and won't get screwed, especially with the latest trends. So I don't evne get why we're discussing it now. Because its fun! Its are hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yes. Call me a weenie! Greed is good....(not with cash- but with snow-and not the snow that gets you feeling like superman) Your right Stebo...Looks to be a solid event. Your thoughts on possible TSSN or Thundersleet.? Both possible. SPC has the general thunder up about 3 tiers of counties into Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Because its fun! Its are hobby Some guys like fantasy sports and some guys like hobby weather forecasting..This is just as good as fantasy football if not better. The plus side...Its not just 16 weeks of fun...its all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM is north... Divided Snow Line clearly around 696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM says hell no to the 06z run, and even yesterday's 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's way too early to say what areas will and won't get screwed, especially with the latest trends. So I don't even get why we're discussing it now. I am discussing it because there is the potential there, and I was just making light of said potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM has been having issues with every single run, I wouldn't use it for much of anything on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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