Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prins, do you think that would be rain here? Or would it be snow? Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah unless the other models trend toward it, I would lean towards it being crap, especially since the GGEM was south by a considerable margin. Well to be fair the 0Z GGEM also tracks the low along the MN border, but yeah, hard to believe it at this point. That northern vortex looks too strong to allow that type of development. The 0Z GFS op was one of the farther S solutions--interested to see what the 06Z does. GFS has been pretty good with this storm--IMO--the last two days in terms of overall consistency and has kept all its solutions through Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prins, do you think that would be rain here? Or would it be snow? Hard to tell. probably a mix for a time...hell, if the rgem is anywhere close than my area would be in the mix. Probably be all different on the 12z run. The 0z ggem was riding the mn/ia border too i thought...gotta go back and look. I can't believe i stay up for this stuff...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well to be fair the 0Z GGEM also tracks the low along the MN border, but yeah, hard to believe it at this point. That northern vortex looks too strong to allow that type of development. The 0Z GFS op was one of the farther S solutions--interested to see what the 06Z does. GFS has been pretty good with this storm--IMO--the last two days in terms of overall consistency and has kept all its solutions through Iowa. Yeah, this is one of the types of setups where I shy away from the GEM both R and G due to it being mostly southern stream dominant energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Same here, just waiting for the new MKE AFD (should be out by 4 AM hopefully) and the 6z GFS. Crazy what a storm like this could do to you. Also, a good movie helps pass the time by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Same here, just waiting for the new MKE AFD (should be out by 4 AM hopefully) and the 6z GFS. Crazy what a storm like this could do to you. Also, a good movie helps pass the time by. Yeah, earlier today I watched Twister in HD for the first time (I know welcome to 2008). But man that movie is about 1000x better in HD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We need to watch trends here. The low in NV is greatly over-achieving, and the 06Z GFS is already a lot stronger with it in NV than the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Gotta give props to the GFS for at least being consistent. It's done well in that regards so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Gotta give props to the GFS for at least being consistent. It's done well in that regards so far. Yeah it is almost identical with the track--just a tad slower and maybe a hair weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Gotta give props to the GFS for at least being consistent. It's done well in that regards so far. Exactly, but definitely more precip for southern Minnesota, maybe due to the fact its a tiny bit slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 MPX just upgraded to warning with up to 15" in spots with general 10-12" n of mn river valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS has been ridiculously consistent with this system, its hard to argue against it when what it is showing makes sense too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 La Crosse going with 8-15 for their area. Milwaukee upgraded the southern counties to the WSW. ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO BARABOO LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO BARABOO LINE. * WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. La Crosse: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS ALSO EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENTIRELY SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED. * THE SNOW WILL MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO BE WET AND HEAVY...MAKING IT SLIPPERY AND MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Mpx forecast for Mankato. Hopefully no major shifts from now on. Tonight- A chance of snow and light freezing rain in the evening...then snow and light freezing rain after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch. Lows 20 to 25. East winds 5 to 15 mph. Sunday- Breezy...snow. Areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Snow accumulation of 7 to 9 inches. Highs 25 to 30. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Sunday Night- Breezy. Snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night. Snow accumulation around 3 inches. Storm total snow accumulation of 11 to 14 inches. Lows around 15. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06z ukie at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 looks like we get .3 ice and 3-5" snow....anyone seeing this move farther south and we miss the ice completly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hopefully the guidance can converge a bit with the 12Z runs. It may be the RUC--but it supports the highly amped RGEM/UK. The low in NV is currently sub 999 as well--stronger than all operational guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 nws buffalo thinks qpf amounts are overdone MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND AFAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON THE COLORADO PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION BEFORE CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AT THE EXPENSE OF A SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM THEN WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPORTED BY A DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN AS WARMER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH NORTH ALOFT...WHILE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVANCES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE LOW LEVELS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF LIFT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR TWO BANDS OF STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY STRETCHING DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DIFFICULT CALL ON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM BRINGING A WARM LAYER ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS COLDER. PAST HISTORY WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM HAS SHOWN THAT WARM AIR SPREADS NORTH FASTER AND FARTHER THAN FORECAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO SPREAD EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY THRUWAY...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AND A CHANGE TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE TO STAY ALL SNOW WILL BE IN THE ROW OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OF COURSE THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD...CHANGING ALL THE PRECIP BACK TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...OVERALL MODEL QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REALIZE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF INCH... WHICH IS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OR SO BELOW A GFS/NAM BLEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING. THAT SAID...THERE MAY BE A BAND OF ENHANCED QPF IF MESOSCALE BANDING STRUCTURES FORM SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION SIGNAL. IF THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD PROBABLY ONLY BE ABOUT A COUNTY WIDE AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME RANGE. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THE WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN. IF PTYPE GOES TO FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY...MAY SEE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICING. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY TIGHT...MEANING THAT JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL PRODUCE A BIG CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PRECIP TYPES. OVERALL HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN BOTH DIRECTIONS ON PTYPE AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF THIS. FINALLY...ONE OTHER CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS INITIALLY...BUT IN A SATURATED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH. THIS MAY ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY SUPPORTED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY EVENING AND SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06z nam clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06z nam clown map 18z? Also I have the Earl Barker link but it only allows you to zoom in to certain locations. How do u get the zoomed out version the whole u.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z? No, that's 6Z 06Z GFS Insane Clown Mappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z? Also I have the Earl Barker link but it only allows you to zoom in to certain locations. How do u get the zoomed out version the whole u.s. na that's the 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 na that's the 6z... Yea my bad. Read the 18z at the bottom. Nam is the southern outlier yet it has the heavier snow swath a little north. The Nam sure has struggled lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yea my bad. Read the 18z at the bottom. Nam is the southern outlier yet it has the heavier snow swath a little north. The Nam sure has struggled lately. NAM gives DTW alot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM gives DTW alot of sleet Yeah, which will be right, the NAM and the sleet storm, or the GFS and the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, which will be right, the NAM and the sleet storm, or the GFS and the ice storm. Close call here a few miles north of 59. I would assume today's 12 z runs will be the first fully sampled runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Being south of Detroit, Im worried about the gradients. Very sharp gradients from tons of snow to tons of ice, and I appear right in the battlezone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hopefully we can shake that warm layer (as much as 2-3*C deep) between 850mb and 700mb. That does in fact scream sleet as the NAM suggests. It doesn't help either that the models continue to gradually remove the omega bullseye from the DGZ. At least in that case the melting process would have helped cooled the colum dynamically. GFS doesn't have one as deep (0*C to 1*C) thus it gives us 95% snow (other than nearly 1.3" of snow, there's a glazing of .06" freezing rain as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This is an I69 special for SEMI. The Tri County Detroit area appears ATM to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This is an I69 special for SEMI. The Tri County Detroit area appears ATM to get screwed. Well, if we see less snow we see more ice, which means a higher impact storm. But i agree I TOTALLY want as much snow as possible. Id prefer sleet over zr because sleet is white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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