Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 how hilarious would it be if someone around here got some TSSN with the front end thumping and then some elevated convection in the warm sector lol wouldn't mind that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just punched out a 06Z SmartModel run, added several more cities in MN,IA,SD. Right now heaviest snow potential is looking from a line from Aberdeen, SD to a Minneapolis, to Madison, WI line. Seeing potential for 10-13" of snow fall possible over the next 48 hours. Seeing some impressived forecast hourly snowfall rates of over 1.5" per hour. Other cities I see are Dubuque around 9", Lacrosse and Oshkosh around 10". Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 03z 42hr sref bout the same as 21z 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 03z 42hr sref bout the same as 21z 48hr How does 48 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 How does 48 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks! SREF beginning to settle down a bit--they had been jumping all over the last 4-8 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks! SREF beginning to settle down a bit--they had been jumping all over the last 4-8 runs. yeah...now i can't go to bed without seeing the 06z rgem...curious to see if it keeps that drastic n track...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yeah...now i can't go to bed without seeing the 06z rgem...curious to see if it keeps that drastic n track...lol The 06 NAM will probably be a little more amped than previous runs just the way the height field looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM coming in with more QPF and a bit stronger. LOW looks to be in the same spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prins, when does the RGEM come out anyways? Don't follow that model too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prins, when does the RGEM come out anyways? Don't follow that model too much. an hour or so...usually an hour give or take after the nam starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 dtx updates for my areas... Sunday: A chance of snow before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 31. Southeast wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 28. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 06 NAM will probably be a little more amped than previous runs just the way the height field looks now. Well forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06Z NAM is doing some weird stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06Z NAM is doing some weird stuff. About as shocking as the sun rising every morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 About as shocking as the sun rising every morning The NAM has been absolutely atrocious lately with a number of high profile storms. This is just beyond awful though. What a junk pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM has been absolutely atrocious lately with a number of high profile storms. This is just beyond awful though. What a junk pile. yesterdays 12z run forecasted high temperature at my house = 51 yesterdays observed high 6 hours later= 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yesterdays 12z run forecasted high temperature at my house = 51 yesterdays observed high 6 hours later= 72 Fail everywhere. The NAM only 24 hrs ago was trying to drop loads of qpf over northern MN. This storm has given the NAM fits with the two moving parts with the elongated vortex and the western trough. It just has no clue. As for the temp fail--that is pretty pathetic. Did any guidance do well with the temps out E? All guidance failed here for our torch too. Seemingly overdid the snowpack temps as most areas were well above guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM spits out 1.5 qpf here lol. Won't happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Fail everywhere. The NAM only 24 hrs ago was trying to drop loads of qpf over northern MN. This storm has given the NAM fits with the two moving parts with the elongated vortex and the western trough. It just has no clue. As for the temp fail--that is pretty pathetic. Did any guidance do well with the temps out E? All guidance failed here for our torch too. Seemingly overdid the snowpack temps as most areas were well above guidance. The GFS was a bit better, but to directly answer your question..not really. My snowpack is pretty much gone now. We've just got some piles left. Far cry from the 3' depth less than a month ago. The NAM has been incredibly unstable this winter--and that's being nice, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DTX going with a WSW with 6"+ of snow north of I-69, 4-8" of snow with up to .25" ice along the M-59 corridor and 1-3" sleet/snow with .25"+ ice for the City south, with even a chance at a change over to rain at the border. Talk about one hell of a forecast there, and a highly variable one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yuck. MKE just updated the forecast here: Sunday...Snow. Snow accumulation of 8 to 9 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Sunday Night...Snow and chance of light freezing rain through around midnight...then light snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 10 to 12 inches. Lows around 20. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 10-12 inches of snow, .25 QPF ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yuck. MKE just updated the forecast here: Sunday...Snow. Snow accumulation of 8 to 9 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Sunday Night...Snow and chance of light freezing rain through around midnight...then light snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 10 to 12 inches. Lows around 20. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 10-12 inches of snow, .25 QPF ice. Looks like a solid forecast, my model is going for 12.9" total snow for MKE and .3" of Ice. Highest threat for the FZRA is 22Z on the 20th through 21st at 05Z. Also picking up on some TSPL mixed in with the FZRA period for you guys. Time to see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 rgem 06z further w/n at 36...post hr 48 in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06z rgem hr 42 & 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So it has 2 lows? One in S. MN and another in N. IL? I don't really get what it's showing. Although temps would be all snow here, and RGEM would easily be 1.25+ QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 rgem 06z further w/n at 36...post hr 48 in a few LOL wow. RGEM is amped up. I am a little surprised to actually see it come in even stronger and farther NW. A tad ridiculous IMO--but an amped solution is still not off the table. Personally I like a track a tick N of the 18z/0Z GFS ops and 03Z SREF--but the RGEM is taking it along the MN border--wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So it has 2 lows? One in S. MN and another in N. IL? I don't really get what it's showing. Although temps would be all snow here, and RGEM would easily be 1.25+ QPF here. fwiw...the 48hr total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL wow. RGEM is amped up. I am a little surprised to actually see it come in even stronger and farther NW. A tad ridiculous IMO--but an amped solution is still not off the table. Personally I like a track a tick N of the 18z/0Z GFS ops and 03Z SREF--but the RGEM is taking it along the MN border--wow. Yeah unless the other models trend toward it, I would lean towards it being crap, especially since the GGEM was south by a considerable margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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