Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah it's definitely going to be very interesting with such a razor sharp low-level baroclinic zone. With the lack of snow cover and the intense WAA, I still think the surface low tracks north of I-80 launching us into the warm sector. Time will tell. That's the spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DET receives about .75 QPF, but like here in S. WI, it should be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah it's definitely going to be very interesting with such a razor sharp low-level baroclinic zone. With the lack of snow cover and the intense WAA, I still think the surface low tracks north of I-80 launching us into the warm sector. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DET: 0.83 QPF...all snow first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's the spirit. You guys are far enough northeast that you will probably get a respectable period of wintry weather before joining the liquid party that the rest of us further south will already be embracing lol. Definitely a trickier forecast for Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 euro FSD SUN 00Z 20-FEB 1.3 1.0 1020 58 16 0.00 560 544 SUN 06Z 20-FEB -1.3 -0.2 1018 75 84 0.03 560 545 SUN 12Z 20-FEB -3.3 -1.2 1011 92 100 0.23 554 545 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -3.1 -2.7 1005 94 90 0.34 548 544 MON 00Z 21-FEB -4.6 -8.9 1008 91 85 0.23 540 534 MON 06Z 21-FEB -6.6 -10.6 1014 89 80 0.13 539 528 MON 12Z 21-FEB -8.5 -12.2 1016 88 71 0.03 538 525 MON 18Z 21-FEB -7.4 -13.7 1018 81 78 0.02 536 522 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -9.5 -14.6 1020 85 95 0.01 535 520 MKT SUN 00Z 20-FEB -1.5 -0.4 1024 60 49 0.00 559 540 SUN 06Z 20-FEB -3.2 0.4 1021 66 58 0.00 558 541 SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.7 -2.0 1015 79 97 0.06 554 543 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -3.3 -3.7 1009 89 100 0.44 550 542 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.9 -5.9 1005 88 97 0.24 543 539 MON 06Z 21-FEB -4.7 -9.6 1011 86 87 0.19 539 531 MON 12Z 21-FEB -6.6 -11.6 1014 85 81 0.11 538 527 MON 18Z 21-FEB -6.7 -12.4 1017 79 75 0.05 537 524 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -7.6 -13.2 1019 82 91 0.03 535 521 MSP SUN 00Z 20-FEB -4.6 -1.4 1025 65 75 0.00 557 537 SUN 06Z 20-FEB -4.7 -1.1 1023 60 46 0.00 556 538 SUN 12Z 20-FEB -3.2 -4.1 1018 72 88 0.01 553 540 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -3.2 -5.3 1012 80 100 0.16 548 539 MON 00Z 21-FEB -3.0 -8.6 1008 84 99 0.33 544 537 MON 06Z 21-FEB -5.7 -11.3 1013 83 93 0.21 539 529 MON 12Z 21-FEB -7.5 -12.6 1016 80 92 0.16 537 525 MON 18Z 21-FEB -6.5 -13.7 1018 69 90 0.08 537 522 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -7.6 -14.2 1019 78 94 0.04 535 520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prins, could you post one for FLD? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You guys are far enough northeast that you will probably get a respectable period of wintry weather before joining the liquid party that the rest of us further south will already be embracing lol. Definitely a trickier forecast for Chicagoland. I have my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Prins, could you post one for FLD? Thanks. FLD SUN 18Z 20-FEB -0.2 -3.2 1014 85 99 0.14 552 541 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.3 -6.9 1009 93 99 0.55 548 541 MON 06Z 21-FEB -3.1 -7.7 1010 87 87 0.19 544 537 MON 12Z 21-FEB -5.4 -9.1 1014 82 75 0.05 542 531 MON 18Z 21-FEB -5.7 -9.6 1017 68 67 0.01 542 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodyErvin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like another snow storm to the northeast of us. Oh well, enjoying the 50s through 70s here in eastern Nebraska, pretty crazy for this time of the year and wearing shorts. Doesn't look like we'll see any snow out of this, but looks like the southern part of this storm has the potential for t-storms, maybe small supercells as well as isolated large hail mixed in with the cold air aloft present and good bulk/directional shear. 4km WRF came out and agrees... Also made an update about this on my blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I have my doubts FWIW the RGEM is the warmest and still gives you guys a 4-5hr period of moderate to heavy snow/sleet before transitioning to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What is with the RGEM... Should I expect rain too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What is with the RGEM... Should I expect rain too? I think it might be going a bit overboard on the WAA, can it be ignored? No but it is on the extreme northern end of the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 FWIW the RGEM is the warmest and still gives you guys a 4-5hr period of moderate to heavy snow/sleet before transitioning to rain. I will counter that by saying the 0z ECM shows very little frozen on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z EURO QPF for southern Ontario and western New York: YYZ (Toronto): 0.38" YHM (Hamilton): 0.56" BUF (Buffalo): 0.56" YOW (Ottawa): 0.09" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like another snow storm to the northeast of us. Oh well, enjoying the 50s through 70s here in eastern Nebraska, pretty crazy for this time of the year and wearing shorts. Doesn't look like we'll see any snow out of this, but looks like the southern part of this storm has the potential for t-storms, maybe small supercells as well as isolated large hail mixed in with the cold air aloft present and good bulk/directional shear. 4km WRF came out and agrees... Also made an update about this on my blog. Univ of Nebraska Lincoln for met I am guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I will counter that by saying the 0z ECM shows very little frozen on the front end. With the intensity of the WAA I wouldn't be surprised with that either. Lets at least hope for some elevated convection if the wintry precip craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hows it looking precipitation wise with 2nd wave on the euro? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hows it looking precipitation wise with 2nd wave on the euro? Thanks Weaker, not worth mentioning, nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With the intensity of the WAA I wouldn't be surprised with that either. Lets at least hope for some elevated convection if the wintry precip craps out. I'm with you on that. By the way, the 0z ECM says congrats to you and bowme for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice 988 MB LOW near Detroit on the Euro for late next week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ...By the way, the 0z ECM says congrats to you and bowme for Thursday. Sounds good coming from the Euro. Still a long ways off though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm with you on that. By the way, the 0z ECM says congrats to you and bowme for Thursday. How much moisture does it indicate at this point, roughly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice 988 MB LOW near Detroit on the Euro for late next week lol. I cant wait for Baro to see the maps just following that system. That set up screams huge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The time this 1st storm ends, the one for late next week will only be 3-4 days away or so. GFS/EURO both have it, GFS taking it through C. IL though, while EURO is just se of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 How much moisture does it indicate at this point, roughly? Another wet system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not to long. Another major storm tracking up the western ohio valley. Congrats man. LMAO @ congrats! Appreciate it, but we have what seems like an eternity (in model terms) to go before this storm makes its mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It may be a bit early, but I nominate Hoosier to conjure the thread. I'm sure the Chicago peeps would agree lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It may be a bit early, but I nominate Hoosier to conjure the thread. I'm sure the Chicago peeps would agree lol. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/13685-feb-23-25th-winter-storm-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I cant wait for Baro to see the maps just following that system. That set up screams huge potential. Euro verbatim looks interesting. That flow exactly can lead to significant frontal events across the plains along the arctic front as the western trough either breaks down. It would be nice to have a little more latitude on the western trough though--but the active pattern looks to continue. Just in time for my move to North Platte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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