kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Can you post the hr 60 image if possible...thanks. 0z ggem came in like the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's for the NAM correct? Thanks man. Yeah GFS Bufkit won't be in for an hour but I'm sure stebo will post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 The most important thing at this point is to follow the trends. Trends say to me most of WI is all snow except maybe down at the IL line as we have had a slow but subtle/steady trend south with the surface low and thermal profiles. Was a day or so ago all the models tracked the low into S.MI and 12z had it over top of Chicago and this run a bit south of there. Won't see anything drastic but really don't need drastic either when one is on the line and still plenty of time left to make a huge difference for some which i strongly suspect will be the case for the reasons i mentioned earlier. That's me though.. I generally agree. That's why I'm being pretty optimistic. Not optimistic enough yet though to even rule out plain rain in parts of SE Wisconsin. Hopefully my confidence in ruling out rain can go up. Overall Southern Wisconsin and Southern Michigan are in very similar shape right now, with the exception that S. Wisconsin will probably see slightly more moisture out of this system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Can anyone else gain access to Plymouth? Yeah. I'm guessing this is what you're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kfld Milwaukee: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmke That's updated for the 0z run. 2M temps for MKE never get above 32, and the 850 is around 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Can you post the hr 60 image if possible...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks a lot Both of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Maybe Patrick can update his thoughts about this. Only the 12z UKIE and a few GEFS members are indicating the second wave being strong and far enough north to affect us to any appreciable degree. I would think the confluence left behind from the first storm would tend to shear the second wave to the south. I agree with stebo's post/response to your question (sorry didn't know about it to he just told me)....but I agree with what stebo's posted and what further implies this is the fact that most systems have trended north as I suspect this one might. Obviously we have to see how this one plays out and what the model's show when the second system gets into the upper air network but I really think there are going to be three good systems for us to watch during the next 10 days. So yes I think the second system will trend north in later runs bringing the north edge of the deformation shield into southern Michigan and Canada, but to be honest I would have to look at the data for that system more as I have been mainly focusing on this one. See you all tomorrow as stebo is in command of the ship here....RED ALERT !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 baro, any chance of convection getting this far north? The ggem took a big jump north from 12z and no, i'm not riding that model or any at this time but MPX mentioned maybe some convection in sc mn. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GGEM has 6 hours of snow then 10 hours of ice along M59. Looks to stay snow 69 north. Second wave looks similar if not a bit further north than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 10hrs of ice? That may be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 baro, any chance of convection getting this far north? The ggem took a big jump north from 12z and no, i'm not riding that model or any at this time but MPX mentioned maybe some convection in sc mn. Thanks. For Willmar area probably not. Best threat would be Twin Cities southward especially near the border of IA and southeastern MN where the strongest mid level theta-e advection exists as well as the more favorable jet level divergence. It is conditionally unstable above 600/700 hpa and there is a mild threat for convective elements and maybe TSSN there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS came in drier here, more around an inch.... would seem to be all snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DDL, GFS gives you about 1.2 QPF, mostly snow. 10:1 ratios would still yield about 8-12 inches of heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its going to be concrete, especially during the afternoon hours... Its cold out tonite..clear skies, moon is out... scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 For Willmar area probably not. Best threat would be Twin Cities southward especially near the border of IA and southeastern MN where the strongest mid level theta-e advection exists as well as the more favorable jet level divergence. It is conditionally unstable above 600/700 hpa and there is a mild threat for convective elements and maybe TSSN there. cool...ggem gives 1.79 qpf total for the storm for msp, i haven't looked at the other model qpf totals yet but be interesting to see what the euro shows or doesn't show here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00Z HIRESW NMM HR 48 images: ARW HR 48 Images: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 cool...ggem gives 1.79 qpf total for the storm for msp, i haven't looked at the other model qpf totals yet but be interesting to see what the euro shows or doesn't show here shortly. Wow, that is juicy. The latest GFS only gives them in the 1-1.25, and I consider it one of the bullish models for QPF right now. It must be due to the slightly north placement of the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's gonna be interesting to be sure come Sunday. Many of you guys to the north in Minnesota and Wisconsin will be ripping in heavy snow, while we're basking in springtime warmth down here. It's hard to believe while we're outside grilling Sunday afternoon a snowstorm will be ongoing a few hundred miles to the north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's gonna be interesting to be sure come Sunday. Many of you guys to the north in Minnesota and Wisconsin will be ripping in heavy snow, while we're basking in springtime warmth down here. It's hard to believe while we're outside grilling Sunday afternoon a snowstorm will be ongoing a few hundred miles to the north lol. 30's/40s, damp, and rainy= that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's gonna be interesting to be sure come Sunday. Many of you guys to the north in Minnesota and Wisconsin will be ripping in heavy snow, while we're basking in springtime warmth down here. It's hard to believe while we're outside grilling Sunday afternoon a snowstorm will be ongoing a few hundred miles to the north lol. Pretty impressive storm. It is scary to think what this storm would have done if it had more room to amplify. As is it is still one of the more impressive storms of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 30's/40s, damp, and rainy= that... Incorrect. We'll see much warmer temps than that here, and the steadier rains will be north of us by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Incorrect. We'll see much warmer temps than that here, and the steadier rains will be north of us by afternoon. You have a pretty legitimate shot of hearing some thunderboomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 48hr on the RGEM. Shows a nice band of potential low-topped convection over eastern Iowa. I think we may make another run at 60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You have a pretty legitimate shot of hearing some thunderboomers. Hope so man! We'll take what we can get lol. You guys up in the MSP area look really good for some late winter white cement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Incorrect. We'll see much warmer temps than that here, and the steadier rains will be north of us by afternoon. 0z ECM has 2M temps around 45F for you by evening.....quite a spread with 60F 2M temps down by Keokuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO is about the same track, a tad weaker, so the temps are a bit colder as a result. HR 54: 1000 low in W. IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Since it's a bit weaker and a tad faster, the QPF it's a bit lower. .75-1 for most of S. WI with 1-1.25 in W. WI. Most of C and S. MN gets .75-1 inch as well, with a pocket of 1-1.25 in S. MN/N. IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z ECM has 2M temps around 45F for you by evening.....quite a spread with 60F 2M temps down by Keokuk. Yeah it's definitely going to be very interesting with such a razor sharp low-level baroclinic zone. With the lack of snow cover and the intense WAA, I still think the surface low tracks north of I-80 launching us into the warm sector. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Detroit receives a great hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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