baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This storm is going to be an ugly mess for a lot of areas. NE Iowa goes from heavy SN to sleet to rain then back to snow. Prolly some thunder mixed in for good measure early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Figures no little help at 0z... oh well. I think we'll make out just fine. If not, at least we'll get some interesting precip. I know ice isn't great in large quantities, but if we get a little ice, sleet, and snow, you can't say it was a poor storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Whatever tiny southward adjusmtent in the track took place was overcome by the stronger system. So yeah, it's basically similar to the 12z run. Still 3-6" here before the ice begins. EDIT, it actually shows 6-8", with isolated heavier amounts. But there's a very sharp shut off in the bottom row of Michigan counties. So it was a marginal improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS says what 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No matter, WSW highly likely for all counties in DTX CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS says what 2nd wave. Yea the stronger the first low the later the second wave gets going. Looks like it takes awhile before the low starts to occlude. Hate sitting on the border of getting getting heavy snow or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Toronto Blizzard, where'd you get the EURO qpf from? What the 0z NAM is showing is pretty close to our worst case scenario, so I'm not worried. Frankly, a lot of these shifts seem to be more like model noise rather than fundamental changes in the prognostication. I got the Euro QPF from some guys that I know who are on the accuwx forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z GFS Total QPF: 0z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No matter, WSW highly likely for all counties in DTX CWFA. Monroe & Lenawee are sitll iffy. If not for the faster transition from snow to ice limiting the potenital for warning crtiera snows, it will be the possibly of above freezing air sneaking northward and disrupting their potential for warning criteria icing. Wayne & Washtenaw do look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 how much of the gfs is snow for southern wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yea the stronger the first low the later the second wave gets going. Looks like it takes awhile before the low starts to occlude. Hate sitting on the border of getting getting heavy snow or ice. You're not in a bad spot in Macomb. One thing I'd be worried about is getting the brunt of your precip in the form of sleet, but the SN bullseye is going to be close by. I wouldn't be surprised if you dynamically cool your warm layer during the heaviest precip and switch to SN+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I got the Euro QPF from some guys that I know who are on the accuwx forums 3rd party source. Nice. Keep me informed plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS says what 2nd wave. It's at hour 60 loll and further n/w I think!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 3rd party source. Nice. Keep me informed plz. Sure no problem man anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You're not in a bad spot in Macomb. One thing I'd be worried about is getting the brunt of your precip in the form of sleet, but the SN bullseye is going to be close by. I wouldn't be surprised if you dynamically cool your warm layer during the heaviest precip and switch to SN+. Yea we are definately in the heavy precip band on most models. While the ratios wont be the best just north of the mix line, isn't that where the heavier snow amounts usually are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Monroe & Lenawee are sitll iffy. If not for the faster transition from snow to ice limiting the potenital for warning crtiera snows, it will be the possibly of above freezing air sneaking northward and disrupting their potential for warning criteria icing. Wayne & Washtenaw do look better. Monroe and Lenawee too would go in because they would meet the 3 to 6 with at least a tenth ice in 12 hours criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You're not in a bad spot in Macomb. One thing I'd be worried about is getting the brunt of your precip in the form of sleet, but the SN bullseye is going to be close by. I wouldn't be surprised if you dynamically cool your warm layer during the heaviest precip and switch to SN+. Agreed....NAM Bufkit for DTX still shows sleet with a -3/-4 sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Patrick, what do you think of here in S. WI, west of Sheboygan? NAM and GFS get the 850 line awfully close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Patrick, what do you think of here in S. WI, west of Sheboygan? NAM and GFS get the 850 line awfully close here. Will check for MKX for you right now....give me a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Monroe and Lenawee too would go in because they would meet the 3 to 6 with at least a tenth ice in 12 hours criteria. I see, I just read DTX's WWD page and it does in fact say lesser amounts can combine with ice and blowing to meet warning crtieria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Patrick, what do you think of here in S. WI, west of Sheboygan? NAM and GFS get the 850 line awfully close here. For MKX 5.7 snow then 0.33 ice with thunderstorms possible. Is that site close enough to you or would MKE work better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think Oshkosh (OSH) would work better if you can use that. That's about 15-20 miles nw of here, MKE is about 60 miles SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 For MKX 5.7 snow then 0.33 ice with thunderstorms possible. Is that site close enough to you or would MKE work better? Talk about the full treatment. My note at the bottom of the thread title could and should sum up what we'll probably get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think Oshkosh (OSH) would work better if you can use that. That's about 15-20 miles nw of here, MKE is about 60 miles SE of here. I don't have a sounding for that site and am about to go off shift as stebo is here....but for GRB stays all snow with 7.1 and you're basically half way between the two so just interpolating the data would suggest 6.2 snow and 0.15 freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's for the NAM correct? Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Agreed....NAM Bufkit for DTX still shows sleet with a -3/-4 sfc. Thanks for not calling me out on that "SN+" +SN +SN +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's for the NAM correct? Thanks man. I would say you get more than 6 inches because I would think Fon du Lac will get greater QPF numbers. On the GFS, the QPF bullseye is in Northeast Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. That said, it seems the NAM has less moisture overall than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Can anyone else gain access to Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z ggem came in like the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I would say you get more than 6 inches because I would think Fon du Lac will get greater QPF numbers. On the GFS, the QPF bullseye is in Northeast Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. That said, it seems the NAM has less moisture overall than the GFS. The most important thing at this point is to follow the trends. Trends say to me most of WI is all snow except maybe down at the IL line as we have had a slow but subtle/steady trend south with the surface low and thermal profiles. Was a day or so ago all the models tracked the low into S.MI and 12z had it over top of Chicago and this run a bit south of there. Won't see anything drastic but really don't need drastic either when one is on the line and still plenty of time left to make a huge difference for some which i strongly suspect will be the case for the reasons i mentioned earlier. That's me though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.