wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Have at it! Thread #2 here! This storm will decide my fate. I'll say if we get a 6" or greater snow event IMBY, I will be free to start threads, but if less than that, then I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Now you're going to get rain & 33*F. Thanks a lot for jynxing the storm. The thread was too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS: MKE: 9.9 LSE: 10.4 OSH: 13.1 NAM: MKE: 8.8 LSE: 6.7 OSH: 7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 that cobb output from the 12z NAM for ORD is quite interesting, def showing a a period of +SN at the beginning but 7" worth?? not buying that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 RFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 that cobb output from the 12z NAM for ORD is quite interesting, def showing a a period of +SN at the beginning but 7" worth?? not buying that much. The ratios it's showing are too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 110220/1400Z 50 14011KT 32.4F SNPL 14:1| 2.5|| 7.5 0.185|| 0.51 0.04|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 88| 3| 8 That's for Chicago. 14:1 ratios with surface temps of 32.4 and 850 temps of around 0? I doubt that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z GFS cobb output shows 4" for Detroit before the transition to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 RFD: NAM: 7.1 GFS: 2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 110220/1400Z 50 14011KT 32.4F SNPL 14:1| 2.5|| 7.5 0.185|| 0.51 0.04|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 88| 3| 8 That's for Chicago. 14:1 ratios with surface temps of 32.4 and 850 temps of around 0? I doubt that as well. Some impressive omega will be centered in the DGZ, so ratios won't be as low as people are thinking. But yeah, 14:1 is too high. More like the standard 10:1 for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The ratios it's showing are too high. Meh.. 14-16:1 isn't that unreasonable with the dynamics... But it was just one run. Though it is something to watch for before the inevitable switch to rain and slop.. I absolutely hate snow-rain situations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The ratios it's showing are too high. yep def too high. btw, downloading ILX level 2 data for Gino so he can talk through our sup that day, he already got the LOT radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 EURO: HR 42: 1000 MB LOW NE COL. 0z HR 54: 1000 MB LOW NE COL. Pretty much the same spot. 2M Temps: 32 line runs from S. MN ESE into W. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HR 48: 996 MB LOW NEB/KS border. 2M temps: S. MN to WI/IL border. All of IL is around 32 as of hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 so are we looking at snow here now or still all rain...need to hire a plow guy if we get snow (cant walk for 6 weeks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HR 54: 996 MB LOW SE NEB. MOD-HVY precip across s. mn, most of WI, and IND. 2M temps: Milwaukee south is near 32. W IA to SE WI is the 32 degree line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HR 54: 996 MB LOW SE NEB. MOD-HVY precip across s. mn, most of WI, and IND. 2M temps: Milwaukee south is near 32. W IA to SE WI is the 32 degree line. Sounds south and stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HR 60: 996 LOW SE IA. SE from 0z. MOD-HVY precip across WI, MI, MN. 2M temps are about the same spot as hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HR 66: 996 LOW NW IND. MOD-HVY precip across S. MI, WI, N. IL. LT-MOD precip surrounds that. 2M temps: All of MI and WI is under 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HR 72: 1000 MB LOW W. PA. LT-MOD precip across MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Sounds south and stronger... Both storms are a bit farther south, with the second having shifted the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Storm is done by HR 78. Total QPF: MSP: .75-1 S. MN: 1-1.25 NE IA: 1-1.25 W. WI: 1-1.25 C. WI: .75-1 S/SW WI: 1-1.25 N. IL: .75-1 MI: .75-1 (should be all snow from looks of it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Verryy Niiiceee.. It will be interesting to see what we get when the slug of mod-heavy precip is over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Cobb MPX GFS: 15.5 Nam: 11.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 N. IL is pretty much all rain I would think. Maybe Chi could help out on that. LOW tracks right through or near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Verryy Niiiceee.. It will be interesting to see what we get when the slug of mod-heavy precip is over us.. 33 and ....no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 how about madison rain/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Madison looks to be mostly snow I think. South of Milwaukee is probably the rain/snow line. It's either snow or frozen precip as 2M temps are right above you guys it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Storm is done by HR 78. Total QPF: MSP: .75-1 S. MN: 1-1.25 NE IA: 1-1.25 W. WI: 1-1.25 C. WI: .75-1 S/SW WI: 1-1.25 N. IL: .75-1 MI: .75-1 (should be all snow from looks of it) Did it show a general idea of where the 850mb line set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Verryy Niiiceee.. It will be interesting to see what we get when the slug of mod-heavy precip is over us.. N. IL is pretty much all rain I would think. Maybe Chi could help out on that. LOW tracks right through or near Chicago. 33 and ....no? 0.89" of QPF...98% of which is rain. 40's and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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