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NNE Winter Snow Thread


dryslot

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John, That is based on the Nam at 12z, I think the GFS is better on the higher totals for you, I used PWM and they were all snow with close to 1.00" so it all depends on subtle shifts in track, And they have gone SE today which is good, I would hang in there its trending in the right direction, Jeff

Can you post or link to the latest clown map(s), just for p*rn purposes? Can't seem to track them down for some reason.

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John, That is based on the Nam at 12z, I think the GFS is better on the higher totals for you, I used PWM and they were all snow with close to 1.00" so it all depends on subtle shifts in track, And they have gone SE today which is good, I would hang in there its trending in the right direction, Jeff

This storm is threading a thin line right now... everyone in NNE gets some snow. Up in the NW corner we can't have this go much further SE, so I'm sort of rooting for this to just hold the line right now. It has to track at least through some portion of SNE for us to get in on the decent snows.

New 15z SREFs are in line with the EURO/UKMET/GGEM... looks like a track north of NYC to between BOS and PWM and then up the Maine coastline. It is quite juicy, too.

Remember, the 540 line in this situation is not a good indicator of the rain/snow line. That will be well southeast of the 540 line due to the lowest 6,000ft being close to isothermal.

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Total QPF on the new SREF... I think this is quite reasonable.

Now, this isn't necessarily what this model is showing, but this is what I'm thinking and the model's QPF demarcations line up nicely with my thinking: the best snow with this event will be in the band of dark blue (.75-1") as I think south of that (green area) there will be some mixing, but the far northern reaches of that green (1"+) band could be a wet snow bomb (ALB-PWM and NW).

I'm thinking up here across northern VT and far northern NH there'll be a widespread area of more pedestrian 3-6/4-7" type snowfall, with that GFL-RUT-LEB-Tamarack jackpot zone seeing 5-10". I have been really hesitant about anyone getting into the double digits with this storm, seeing how marginal (ie, low ratio wet snow) the heaviest >1" QPF area will be. But do think there's a chance that someone immediately north (like only a couple miles north) of the mixing line ends up with around 10".

Not a huge event by any stretch of the imagination, but boy is it nice to have something to look at and track after the last couple weeks.

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Whats your take on the daks high peaks

Total QPF on the new SREF... I think this is quite reasonable.

Now, this isn't necessarily what this model is showing, but this is what I'm thinking and the model's QPF demarcations line up nicely with my thinking: the best snow with this event will be in the band of dark blue (.75-1") as I think south of that (green area) there will be some mixing, but the far northern reaches of that green (1"+) band could be a wet snow bomb (ALB-PWM and NW).

I'm thinking up here across northern VT and far northern NH there'll be a widespread area of more pedestrian 3-6/4-7" type snowfall, with that GFL-RUT-LEB-Tamarack jackpot zone seeing 5-10". I have been really hesitant about anyone getting into the double digits with this storm, seeing how marginal (ie, low ratio wet snow) the heaviest >1" QPF area will be. But do think there's a chance that someone immediately north (like only a couple miles north) of the mixing line ends up with around 10".

Not a huge event by any stretch of the imagination, but boy is it nice to have something to look at and track after the last couple weeks.

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Whats your take on the daks high peaks

Gore gets into the 5-10" in the southern 'Dacks... High Peaks region my bet would be similar to far northern VT... 3-6 or 4-7" type deal.

The way this translates west to east... there shouldn't be too much of a west-east QPF gradient but more north-south. Whatever falls in the northern half of the Adirondacks will likely be what the northern tier of the Greens sees.

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GYX Has WSW up...

WWUS41 KGYX 232037

WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

337 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

...WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY

MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BOSTON BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS

LOW WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A HAZARDOUS MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO

MUCH OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE

THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON

FRIDAY.

MEZ018-019-NHZ005>010-240445-

/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0006.110225T0800Z-110226T0000Z/

INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-

SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...

GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...

OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...

HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER

337 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE WATCH AREA AFTER

MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY FRIDAY

MORNING. THEREAFTER...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING

RAIN...AND PLAIN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY MORNING

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF

SNOWFALL...OR A HAZARDOUS MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING

RAIN.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY AND SNOW COVERED BY

FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY ALSO OCCUR SINCE THE

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BET WET...WITH POSSIBLY A GLAZE OF ICE ON

TOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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GYX Has WSW up

I see ALY, BTV, and GYX all fired away at about the same time, haha. I'm still thinking high end advisory (ie. not >7") here.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...

STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...

LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...

GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

353 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME

MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY WITH

GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND

CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A MILE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

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Wonder if this is going to look like the Feb 5-6 event (without the donner und blitzen, and maybe a bit south.) Many folks got a good front end thump followed by a fair amount of taint then a final frosting, from a fast mover.

I was thinking the same but frankly, I could do without 6" of snow with 1" of liquid. How about we keep the snowfall the same but half the QPF?

The donner & blitzen were fun though. ;)

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John, That is based on the Nam at 12z, I think the GFS is better on the higher totals for you, I used PWM and they were all snow with close to 1.00" so it all depends on subtle shifts in track, And they have gone SE today which is good, I would hang in there its trending in the right direction, Jeff

Thanks Jeff! A glimmer of hope, but I will not hold my breath on it sliding further SE. Congrats on the WSW!

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Total QPF on the new SREF... I think this is quite reasonable.

Now, this isn't necessarily what this model is showing, but this is what I'm thinking and the model's QPF demarcations line up nicely with my thinking: the best snow with this event will be in the band of dark blue (.75-1") as I think south of that (green area) there will be some mixing, but the far northern reaches of that green (1"+) band could be a wet snow bomb (ALB-PWM and NW).

I'm thinking up here across northern VT and far northern NH there'll be a widespread area of more pedestrian 3-6/4-7" type snowfall, with that GFL-RUT-LEB-Tamarack jackpot zone seeing 5-10". I have been really hesitant about anyone getting into the double digits with this storm, seeing how marginal (ie, low ratio wet snow) the heaviest >1" QPF area will be. But do think there's a chance that someone immediately north (like only a couple miles north) of the mixing line ends up with around 10".

Not a huge event by any stretch of the imagination, but boy is it nice to have something to look at and track after the last couple weeks.

Scott

A few points,

1. I generally agree with your spread of snowfall. However I think this storm's heavsit snow tracks a bit futher north. In similar systems this year, the center of low pressure has been deeper and more occluded - therefore more towards the NW than modeled. At least as I've tracked. So I'd say the jackpot zone will be the Green Spine Between MRG and KMart. Now that's based on trends - clearly the models want right now to place the heaviest snow to the south. Well I should say heaviest precip. I think totals will actually be pretty even- moisture density will be not. I could see Stowe getting 6 inches of fluffer-nutter while Magic/Snow in the south get 6 inches of glop.

2. I think you are a little low on the totals in the target zone. I'd think this is an 8-10 inch storm. This year, snows have been very heavy north of cyclonic warm fronts. Remember the thundersnow from a few weeks ago? I'm not sure what's the exact cause this year for such strong isentropic lift generated snows ...but that's what has played out. Therefore I'm thinking slightly higher totals. NWS went 6-10 and I think in the mtns this is an 8-10 storm.

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Whats your take on the daks high peaks

I think the real high peaks get WAY more snow than any Met or WX guy measures. It's almost impossible to measure how much snow falls in the high peaks as there is no comparable WX station. Radar can't estiamte because it's blocked by low hills. No ski areas. Whiteface is a piss poor comparison. I've been knee deep in the high peaks while WF has 1 inch.

A real snow study needs to be done there.

With that said-....I'd say 6-8 is prob. reasonable for the high dacks.

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Thanks to both of you for the feedback

I think the real high peaks get WAY more snow than any Met or WX guy measures. It's almost impossible to measure how much snow falls in the high peaks as there is no comparable WX station. Radar can't estiamte because it's blocked by low hills. No ski areas. Whiteface is a piss poor comparison. I've been knee deep in the high peaks while WF has 1 inch.

A real snow study needs to be done there.

With that said-....I'd say 6-8 is prob. reasonable for the high dacks.

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Scott

A few points,

1. I generally agree with your spread of snowfall. However I think this storm's heavsit snow tracks a bit futher north. In similar systems this year, the center of low pressure has been deeper and more occluded - therefore more towards the NW than modeled. At least as I've tracked. So I'd say the jackpot zone will be the Green Spine Between MRG and KMart. Now that's based on trends - clearly the models want right now to place the heaviest snow to the south. Well I should say heaviest precip. I think totals will actually be pretty even- moisture density will be not. I could see Stowe getting 6 inches of fluffer-nutter while Magic/Snow in the south get 6 inches of glop.

2. I think you are a little low on the totals in the target zone. I'd think this is an 8-10 inch storm. This year, snows have been very heavy north of cyclonic warm fronts. Remember the thundersnow from a few weeks ago? I'm not sure what's the exact cause this year for such strong isentropic lift generated snows ...but that's what has played out. Therefore I'm thinking slightly higher totals. NWS went 6-10 and I think in the mtns this is an 8-10 storm.

Should be better ratios further from the storm center as well in the higher elevations

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Scott

A few points,

1. I generally agree with your spread of snowfall. However I think this storm's heavsit snow tracks a bit futher north. In similar systems this year, the center of low pressure has been deeper and more occluded - therefore more towards the NW than modeled. At least as I've tracked. So I'd say the jackpot zone will be the Green Spine Between MRG and KMart. Now that's based on trends - clearly the models want right now to place the heaviest snow to the south. Well I should say heaviest precip. I think totals will actually be pretty even- moisture density will be not. I could see Stowe getting 6 inches of fluffer-nutter while Magic/Snow in the south get 6 inches of glop.

2. I think you are a little low on the totals in the target zone. I'd think this is an 8-10 inch storm. This year, snows have been very heavy north of cyclonic warm fronts. Remember the thundersnow from a few weeks ago? I'm not sure what's the exact cause this year for such strong isentropic lift generated snows ...but that's what has played out. Therefore I'm thinking slightly higher totals. NWS went 6-10 and I think in the mtns this is an 8-10 storm.

Lionel... you certainly bring up good points (see 18z NAM and GFS). Both NAM and GFS trended stronger and further NW at 18z from 12z and the trend this season has definitely been for a late game NW push. I'm obviously going to wait for the full 00z model run before making any thought changes, but the mix line now may approach the Killington/Rutland region. MRG/Sugarbush is the likely winner in all of this if the 18z runs hold any merit. I agree with you on the densities, but honestly, snow growth doesn't seem all that great even up here in northern VT although boundary layer temperatures will be colder on the whole. I could see an 8:1 wet snowfall in the Killington area, 10:1 at Sugarbush, and 12:1 Stowe/Smuggs/Jay... no one is getting anything better than 12:1 ratios out of this IMO just based on low/mid level thermal fields.

And yeah, given Gulf of Mexico moisture working into this system in the Ohio Valley, coupled with sharply rising PWATS, the WAA/isentropic lift should generate some solid precipitation totals. I do like seeing the models increase QPF on the whole as we get closer to the event... they are sensing this "more moist" scenario and with a strong low level jet pumping this moisture northward, I doubt we have any QPF problems.

The low level cold is a bit stale though, but should get the job done in producing WAA precip... can you imagine what a fresh arctic airmass coupled with this H85-H7 warm air and moisture advection would do? With a stronger baroclinic zone and associated frontogenesis we'd be talking 1-2 feet as a max over someone.

I'm still thinking 5-10" as a max (though in reality it might be 8-10"). I guess the 5" on the low end of the range is likely too light, but still think this thing maxes out at 10"... hard pressed to find a reason to forecast a full foot for someone right now.

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Probably the longest AFD in GYX history today.

18z trends are quite worrisome, I must admit. Hoping it's all lies and deceit and will shimmy south at 00z.

That would be Eckster, We will see at 0z if they trend SE some, That seems to be how the rest of the winter went on these storms close in, The off hour runs sometime pick up on trends and sometimes they are burp runs, If the storm trends stronger it will be NW, If it comes in weaker it will be SE, We shall see, I won't get to worked up unless it continues at 0z and it very well could with no blocking

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Ekster is a god among men with his AFD's... I also love the shoutout to KLEB... even if it was for a not good thing.

Truth is that we're going to end up somewhere around 6 here... most likely... maybe a little south, maybe a little north... probably won't be less than 4... hope to avoid the taint, but I know better than that...

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I noticed that BTV has a Winter Storm Watch up (I see that Scott posted a lot of this as well, so some is a duplication):

23FEB11A.jpg

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

353 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-241000-/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0005.110225T1200Z-110226T0500Z/NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

353 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011 ...

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHFRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHFRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A MILE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...ORGO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THISWEATHER SITUATION.

$$ EVENSON

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