dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Aw mang.... I toot for taint. It's only business. I hope you understand. Vim Toot! I do, But the trend has not been your friend the last few runs, No hard feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I do, But the trend has not been your friend the last few runs, No hard feelings Jeff, Been out of the loop for awhile. What's it looking like here. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Jeff, Been out of the loop for awhile. What's it looking like here. Thanks in advance! John, Prob 2-4" 3-6" deal for you, I think you will see a changeover to rain, Thats what it looks like right now more of a snow rain snow scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Was -2 when I left the house, probably got near -5 at some point. Ideal rad cooling atmosphere, but 2 weeks since last accum makes for less than perfect snow albedo. Nasty crust on the snow, holds my 90-lb Lab about 3/4 the time. Probably holds a walking deer but a runner breaks thru - NOT good, as the coyotes will stay up all the time. For several days, GYX has been taking the middle route between the inland runner models and whiff/near whiff models, and today it's looking like they've picked a winner. Not sure whether MBY is just north of the best (as it's been for about 6 storms this winter) or hits whatever jackpot this system holds. 06z gfs had AUG with about 1" and marginal 2m and h85 temps, RUM with 1/2" and all snow. Pretty sharp cutoff on qpf. That run also has a 2" mix-to-cold-rain for early next week. Sure hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oooooo ... first call. Hadn't even thought of one. I'll say mby is lower than your 5-9, but just a tick. 4-7. Five or six is my pinpoint target. I don't know where Matt was coming up with 14" as a high end but more power to him. I was thinking over 12 for some parts of the southern Whites, where it may be a little colder. Looks like some of the moisture might bank up in some places to enhance. I think 6-12 is a good forecast, with the 12 more in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How much for Shawnee? That's where I'm headed Friday and Saturday, barring a monsoon. My dad's flying in from AZ. Of course, I'd been regaling him with tales of steadily building snowpack and now we're looking at depleted crust and staring down the barrel of a potential rainer. He was supposed to come the first weekend of the month, but couldn't get in due to fallout from the Grondhog Day storm. BTW Vim Toot: Loved yesterday's post about the lonely existence of the NNE poster. You're right on the mark about being deemed irrlevant due to being so far downstream, and about the dearth of regularly-posting pros. But we are entering our sweet spot on the calendar relative to SNE -- and while the "endless winter" has ended, we should be in line for another interesting event or two. Here's to climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I like the NWS in Valdez, AK, anything under 12" doesn't get a special color to signify the impending doom. I had no idea that it was so snowy down in town there, the annual average snowfall for Valdez is over 300", almost as much as the snowiest places in the Greens. They are certainly outside of this region, but as for the discussion about snowy places at low elevation, they certianly fit that description with an elevation of ~100' ASL or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I had no idea that it was so snowy down in town there, the annual average snowfall for Valdez is over 300", almost as much as the snowiest places in the Greens. They are certainly outside of this region, but as for the discussion about snowy places at low elevation, they certianly fit that description with an elevation of ~100' ASL or so. the upper elevations outside of town, while not recorded like we do, see upwards of 900-1000". pretty much a shangri -la for me. its a pretty neat envoirn having a bay that never freezes and 6,000' peaks spouting up from the ocean, ready the history of early miners and then oil men makes your neck hurt from shaking in disbelief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Nam soundings for here are all snow 9.10" verbatium on this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Nam soundings for here are all snow 9.10" verbatium on this run.. That's nice. NAM has been one of the warmer pieces of guidance. Can you slide me SFM's? My work PC doesn't have the link. PWMan - Shawnee should do pretty well. 8" or so would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 That's nice. NAM has been one of the warmer pieces of guidance. Can you slide me SFM's? My work PC doesn't have the link. PWMan - Shawnee should do pretty well. 8" or so would be my guess. SFM changes to rain for a period, 4.60" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 SFM changes to rain for a period, 4.60" snow Cool. I'll add a smidge of snow for my added latitude and call it 5" ... which is exactly what I'm expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Cool. I'll add a smidge of snow for my added latitude and call it 5" ... which is exactly what I'm expecting. Yup, That should be the call right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS held serve on qpf, maybe cooled 1F for the foothills, 5-7" verbatim. Their clown map has MBY 6-8" and a 10-12" lolli just south of IZG. Tuesday still looks a mess - would be game over for our eastern Maine timber harvests. Probably still enough snow in the woods, but once the ice leaves the roads, March is very unkind to trucking there. Western Mts and northern Maine operations would likely survive, pause, and resume once the water drains off and things cool down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS held serve on qpf, maybe cooled 1F for the foothills, 5-7" verbatim. Their clown map has MBY 6-8" and a 10-12" lolli just south of IZG. Tuesday still looks a mess - would be game over for our eastern Maine timber harvests. Probably still enough snow in the woods, but once the ice leaves the roads, March is very unkind to trucking there. Western Mts and northern Maine operations would likely survive, pause, and resume once the water drains off and things cool down again. Clown maps have me at 10-12", Not, Once the roads are posted the loggers are cooked, And the frost heaves look like CTblizz's snowbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro looks like it went SE at 12z, The 546 line at 0z was just to my north and now it stays to my south, Pretty robust as well with precip 1.25" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Clown maps have me at 10-12", Not, Once the roads are posted the loggers are cooked, And the frost heaves look like CTblizz's snowbanks That signals the 2 AM shift, when the scales are open all night and hauling ends at 9 AM. (Or whenever any meltwater meets pavement.) Frost heaves in my area are fairly civilized, at least no worse than average (so far.) Edit: Does the Euro change your mind about the likelihood of 10-12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Fun day on the xc trails. Tad windy up at the eagle mountain hose trails. Looking snowy for thurs night / Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro looks like it went SE at 12z, The 546 line at 0z was just to my north and now it stays to my south, Pretty robust as well with precip 1.25" here If you have ECMWF QPF, I'm curious about the layout of Vermont... not just my area but the entire state. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 If you have ECMWF QPF, I'm curious about the layout of Vermont... not just my area but the entire state. Thanks in advance. I posted it for you in the other thread.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Fun day on the xc trails. Tad windy up at the eagle mountain hose trails. Looking snowy for thurs night / Friday. You picked a good week to be up here, You brought the Juju with you, You would be depressed if you were home........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I posted it for you in the other thread.............. Thanks bro. Just saw that, wanted to make sure I got your attention, lol. I'm surprised its that juicy. I would've expected around a half inch of liquid up here... or at least that's what I'm thinking as far as my operational forecast for the mountain. Gun to my head right now is .5" QPF, 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thanks bro. Just saw that, wanted to make sure I got your attention, lol. I'm surprised its that juicy. I would've expected around a half inch of liquid up here... or at least that's what I'm thinking as far as my operational forecast for the mountain. Gun to my head right now is .5" QPF, 4-6". Yeah, I think the euro is still to amped, Will have to see if it starts to back off at 0z, Would love it if it did not, Tues storm track came east, Was going thru the great lakes west of you, Now it goes NE of VT thru NW Maine, The other thread has gone into the toilet so to speak, Hvy Hvy Depression in there........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Vim Toot, Gets a nice little qpf boost verbatium on the Euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm guessing around an inch in KLEB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 John, Prob 2-4" 3-6" deal for you, I think you will see a changeover to rain, Thats what it looks like right now more of a snow rain snow scenario Good for the snow, blah on the rain. Oh well, gotta accept what I get. Thanks Jeff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm guessing around an inch in KLEB? Good guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Good for the snow, blah on the rain. Oh well, gotta accept what I get. Thanks Jeff! John, That is based on the Nam at 12z, I think the GFS is better on the higher totals for you, I used PWM and they were all snow with close to 1.00" so it all depends on subtle shifts in track, And they have gone SE today which is good, I would hang in there its trending in the right direction, Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 And ok, spuds, pulp & bloobs. LOL, I'll bring the maple syrup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That Euro qpf is a big signal I would think. Even as the system has shifted se it has maintained big qpf. Someone in the right spot is going to see a 12-18 wet snow bomb. At least I'd think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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